Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 3/21 Analysis
Best Bet: OUR VACATION (4th)
Spot Play: MARCUS SEELSTER (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,8,9/8/7/6/1,2,6,7,8 = $3
EARLY PICK 4: 6/1,2,6,7,8/1,4,8/3,7 = $30
LATE PICK 4: 3,7/3,4,10/2,5,8/1,2,7 = $54
MEET STATS: 214 - 702 / $1,169.90 (-$234.10)
BEST BETS: 31 - 64 / $107.70 (-$20.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 64 / $119.30 (-$8.70)
Race 1
(5) KNOPFLER had a good head of steam going down the lane last time, but the winner - who was also debuting - had him in dire straits at that point. An earlier move would make him very tough here. (8) SOUTHWIND CASHA - a $22K Harrisburg buy - looks ready for a sharp debut effort; using. (9) FRESHETTE HANOVER was bought for $24K at Harrisburg and she lands in a decent spot here to start out her career. She can close for a piece. (10) KING FOR LIFE should once again be prominent early and hang around for a share.
Race 2
(8) TRAGICALLY ZIP immediately dropped two seconds last week after changing barns. If he repeats that mile, the rest are racing for second. (3) UBER HANOVER was used up early vs. the choice. An easier trip will lead to him lasting much longer. (6) BOOTS N BRIAN split the top two last week, but he is inconsistent; small share predicted. (5) L WEATHER B should move up dropping into a claimer here; using underneath.
Race 3
(7) SVENSSON moved up sharply off the claim to win last time and more of the same is likely coming here. (5) OVERCOMEBYVICTORY should be closer starting from a post inside the choice this time; exacta factor. (6) VERO BI AMORE was no match for the choice last time, but he should be prominent early then stick around for a share. (4) BOP TOO THE TOP is in great form, but she seems likely to close late for another slice.
Race 4
(6) OUR VACATION looks too strong for these right now and she anchors this Pick 4 as a single. (3) FLY IN STYLE missed some time, but her fast kickers should play well here for at least a slice. (2) RED RIVER JANE tripped out to win her debut, but she showed good late speed there. She's not out of this. (8) P L LIGHTNING was much better last time and she's worth considering for use underneath at a price.
Race 5
(6) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY is the only class-dropper in this field and he gets the best post; top call. (7) ESQUIRE is better coming from off the pace and his price should be good here; using. (1) ALERT HANOVER should sit a trip and take another share. (2) SMOKE MONKEY has been hinting in his last two and he is another who should be coming on late.
Race 6
(4) GENESSEE SEELSTER was second behind a razor-sharp winner last time and with the progressive improvement that he's shown, he could be sitting on a win now. (8) LUCKY LEVIS paced his back 1/2 in 55 4/5 in his lone qualifier. There seems to be some talent here. (1) CAPTAIN COINE showed some ability in a short campaign last year and his 27 1/5 kicker paced over a track rated three seconds off sticks out; using. (6) J M MANDAMIN showed some promise racing at London and he can pass some of these late to take a share.
Race 7
(3) ST LADS CASH was dynamite last time - albeit aided by slow splits. He gets a slight nod over (7) BEATING THE ODDS who faltered late vs. better opponents. (8) SOMEWHERE BETTOR moves up off a sharp win, but I prefer using him underneath here. (2) AREUKIDINME CABBIE should be along for another slice.
Race 8
(4) CHARMBO GOLDEN's speed should play better from this improved post and his main rival (10) ROYAL ESTEEM is up against it from out there; nod to the former. (3) ENCARNACION is interesting adding Lasix for his return and the barn has been hot; using. (5) IMJUSTTICKETYBOO can close for a smaller share if she stays flat this time.
Race 9
(2) MARCUS SEELSTER had no chance chasing snail-like fractions last time, but that was a great comeback effort and he can beat these if he gets put into the race. (8) SPORTSCAM finished just behind the choice and he should be the main danger. (5) BRONSONS DELIGHT had a sharp debut effort and he is the third one that can win this with the right trip. (4) BIG ROCKY looks best of the rest and he should stick around and take a slice.
Race 10
(2) FACE OF WAR was close at this level two starts back and he should get an aggressive steer here. (1) ELM GROVE KABOOM was in tough last time vs. Nickle Bag. He will probably look to trip out here and if he does, he can beat these. (7) NEEDLECREST is dangerous racing at the bottom level and he gets Henry which won't hurt. (8) ARSENAL SEELSTER improved racing at this level last time and Roy should put him into play at some point. (6) MAC RAIDER is a good one to use in the 4th and 5th slot in the exotics.