Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 3/14 Analysis

Best Bet: OUR VACATION (10th)

Spot Play: DOWN ON MY LUCK (5th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 3,9/3,6/7/1,2,3,8/1,4,9 = $9.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,3,8/1,4,9/3,4,8/8 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 8/3,9,10/4,5/6 = $6

MEET STATS: 202 - 672 / $1,097.30 (-$246.70)

BEST BETS: 29 - 61 / $101.00 (-$21.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 61 / $119.30 (-$2.70)

Race 1

(9) KNOPFLER had a good head of steam going down the lane last week, but the winner – who was also debuting – had him in dire straits at that point. An earlier move would make him very tough here. (3) SOUTHWIND CASHA – a $22K Harrisburg buy – looks ready for a sharp debut effort; using. (8) FRESHETTE HANOVER was bought for $24K at Harrisburg and she lands in a decent spot here to start out her career. She can close for a piece. (7) KING FOR LIFE should once again be prominent early and hang around for a share.

Race 2

(3) BEATINGTHEODDS exits what I believe could end up being a key race and any of the three that passed him late in that race would rank highly here. (6) ST LADS CASH, coming off a sharp maiden score, should be the main danger. (5) SOMEWHERE BETTOR was allowed to waltz around the track unchallenged last time, but that scenario shouldn’t be repeated here; for a share. (4) GOODERTHANGOUDA can pass horses down the lane in this spot; consider for exotics.

Race 3

(7) SVENSSON was an easy winner off the Shepherd claim last week and he looks solid to repeat here, but at a short price. (4) OVERCOMEBYVICTORY should get a quicker start here moving inside, and that puts him in position to get into the exacta. (5) VERO AMORE BI was no match for the choice last time. He needs to find more late. (8) BOP TOO THE TOP hits the board every week, but he could be at the back early this time; small share predicted.

Race 4

(8) BRONSONS DELIGHT was against it in his debut when the leader had it all his own way and cut moderate splits. He closed well then and he may boss these if he gets the word go at the start. (1) MARCUS SEELSTER has a similar scenario and an inside post. I’ll use him in the multis too along with (2) J M MANDAMIN, who has shown flashes of talent out of town. (3) SPORTSCAM is another in here that could do if he gets a trip and Roy has a knack for getting these types across.

Race 5

(1) DOWN ON MY LUCK had McNair for a test drive last week when in an impossible spot vs. the classy Ideal Jet. Post relief should move him up sharply here. (4) PHIL THE THRILL may have needed his start last time and he could get a better trip here, too; using. (6) ARSENAL SEELSTER was much better last week and if he popped up and won here, it wouldn’t be a shock. (9) LISVINNIE lost all chance at the start last week, but he’s never out of it when he races for Johnson; using.

Race 6

(3) ROYAL ESTEEM was very sharp in her debut win and this spot isn’t much tougher; call to repeat. (4) SPECTRE has the talent to improve sharply in his second start back while moving inside; consider for the exotics at what could be a big price. (8) CHARMBO GOLDEN’s speed makes him a factor for the exotics. (1) TRAVEL WINNER should be able to sit a trip and hang around for a slice.

Race 7

(8) TRAGICALLY ZIP immediately dropped two seconds last week after changing barns. If he repeats that mile, the rest are racing for second. (6) CAPTAIN AMERICA was decent most recently but no match for the choice. This could be a very chalky exacta. (7) BOOTS N BRIAN split the top two last week, but he is inconsistent; small share predicted. (2) UBER HANOVER was used up early vs. the choice. An easier trip will lead to him lasting much longer.

Race 8

In a race that looks wide-open, I’ll give a slight nod to (3) SMOKE MONKEY who has hinted at improvement in his last two starts. (9) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY is the only class-dropper in this field and he is sure to be heard from. (10) ESQUIRE is better coming from off the pace and his price will be good here; using. (5) ALERT HANOVER should sit a trip and take another share.

Race 9

(4) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE is a popular item at the claim box and he goes back to Moreau here, likely to be claimed again; top call. (5) LAUTNER SEELSTER is a must-use for me going for Gallucci off the claim. (3) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER can’t be discounted going for the hot Cullen barn. (2) TYLERS BEACH BOY dropped and got closer last time. Small share predicted again.

Race 10

(6) OUR VACATION looks too strong for these right now and she anchors this Pick 4 as a single. (7) MYSTIC SEELSTER was second to a sharp class-dropper last week and she is an exacta factor again. (9) P L LIGHTNING closed decently when coming off a short break. She can crash the exotics at a price here. (5) RED RIVER JANE tripped-out to win her debut, but she showed good late speed there. She’s not out of this. (1) BIDFORA HUG should get a slice starting from the inside.