Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 2/28 Analysis

Best Bet: CINNABAR DRAGON (4th)

Spot Play: AVALANCHE HANOVER (6th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 3/1,4,5,6/5,7,9/5/1,4,9 = $7.20

EARLY PICK 4: 5/1,4,9/2,4,5/1,3,5 = $27

LATE PICK 4: 1,3,5/2,3/2,4,8/1,5,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 181 - 592 / $1006.70 (-$177.30)

BEST BETS: 25 - 53 / $89.10 (-$16.90)

SPOT PLAYS: 14 - 53 / $110.30 (+$4.30)

Race 1

(3) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE was a sharp winner in this class on Monday night when claimed and he looks like a Pick 5 single here if he goes on the quick return. (4) LIVELY FREDDIE led the choice most of the way but was no match late. He can be an exacta factor here. (6) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is a capable veteran going for a hot barn; consider for the exotics despite the step up in class. (7) MCSINNER MAN can unleash a strong late kick on his best day and he should be heard from late here.

Race 2

(1) SPICEY VICTOR has been a win machine on the B tracks, winning 22 of his past 44 starts. Now he goes for the white-hot Moreau barn off a claim. This isn’t the toughest spot and he gets the nod. (4) BOP TOO THE TOP has done well since being claimed by trainer Gilmour and she should pop soon for a win; using. (5) OVERCOMEBYVICTORY tripped-out to blow up the tote board and another perfect trip isn’t out of the question here. He’s the third one that I’ll use in this Pick 5. (6) EXPLOSIVE JET is in good form and he’s another that could take this contentious dash with the right trip.

Race 3

(9) ANGRY EYES got hammered at the windows for her debut and she raced decently. She can win this if she gets put into the race early enough. (5) MAGICAL WINNER K could get an easy trip up front and get brave; beware. (7) KING FOR LIFE made a big move at huge odds last week but he couldn’t seal the deal late. Off that improved effort he’s a contender. (2) UNION JACK raced well last week and if he stays flat again, he can land in the Super.

Race 4

(5) CINNABAR DRAGON was entered back in this class Monday before dominating a similar field that night. A repeat at very short odds is likely. (4) UFDRAGONS ROCKET was used up early the other night on a track rated four seconds slow, but he gets Roy here and he can come late to complete the exacta. (2) SOME PLAYA figures to sit a decent trip and stick for a share. (1) DON’T WRITE ME OUT similarly should sit a decent trip near the front and he can hit the Super in this spot.

Race 5

(4) UBER HANOVER should be sharper here returning to a 7-day cycle and that could be bad news for his rivals. (1) SOMEHOWSOMEDAY has a line three starts back that can win this and he shouldn’t get used as hard early this time. I’ll use him in the multis. (9) LORIS ROCK STAR figures off the Shepherd claim and McNair is due to get rolling. He should be right there if he gets a good start. (8) CAPTAIN AMERICA is worth a look for the exotics going for a hot barn.

Race 6

(5) AVALANCHE HANOVER gets to drop to the bottom here which should produce a strong effort; top call. (4) HIS BOY ELROY couldn’t catch a strong leader last time, but that was a good effort and he is in with a decent chance here. (2) NOTETOSELF HANOVER raced well last week and while he doesn’t win often, he could do here if he gets a trip. (3) FACE OR WAR gets driver Hudon back and he should move up in this spot.

Race 7

(1) SPORTSCAM raced well in his 2019 debut and this may be an easier spot, so he gets the nod. (5) ASCENDANT raced tough vs. a predictable winner last week. He should be right there vs. these. (3) MACH DEISEL was out too long and he couldn’t sustain his bid. He fits here, too. (4) ST LADS CASH is worth a look off a decent qualifier and he hinted at having some ability last summer.

Race 8

(3) IF I MUST had a strong record last year and he goes for a barn that sends them ready. He gets a slight nod over (2) ROAD TRIPPER, who was best last week but set back. (1) IMJUSTTICKETYBOO keeps firing home with quick final quarters and she could win this with a trip. (4) LABERO could get a much better trip here moving inside and if he does, he can contend for a big slice.

Race 9

(4) BEACH BABY BEE steps up off a sharp win and a similarly aggressive drive could get the job done vs. these. (8) LEADER TONIGHT has been close twice at this class and he should be right there if he gets put into the race off the gate. (2) BRANDON HANOVER surprised last week but his late burst was impressive. He’s not out of this. (5) SLIM SHADY should go better second time in the class and from an improved post. He has upset potential.

Race 10

(1) ALERT HANOVER fell just short to a classy rival last time and he gets the nod vs. these. (9) BARNEY MAC took some action at the windows and he was flying late. Post again could be an issue here. (5) WESMONT returns at a reduced level and he is capable vs. these if he comes ready. (6) MUSICAL SPELL had a tough trip last time and tired late as a result. He can be much closer here if he sits a trip. (8) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL races best for driver McNair; consider using her underneath in this spot.