Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 2/14 Analysis
Best Bet: GOLD EDITION (9th)
Spot Play: STROMAN (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,6/2,4,6/1,7,8/4,7/2,3,6 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 4,7/2,3,6/2,6,9/3,4 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,4/5,6,7/4/2,4,5,8 = $24
MEET STATS: 155 - 506 / $874.70 (-$137.30)
BEST BETS: 20 - 45 / $71.30 (-$18.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 45 / $95.20 (+$5.20)
Race 1
(6) TRAVEL WINNER was bet off the board last time, but he was put in a tough spot early and came too late to catch the winner. He will likely be a heavy chalk again and he has a big shot. (2) IMJUSTTICKETYBOO last raced in this class in late December and she was a winner. She makes sense to use in the Pick 5 dropping back down. (5) HAY DARLENE continues to be content to cash checks every week and it's near impossible to guess when she'll pop for the maiden win; using underneath. (8) SOUTHWIND SPARTAN was against the track last Thursday, but he's also still 0 for 19. He's another one to use on the bottom.
Race 2
(6) BIG BULLY was one of 11 horses that led at the 3/4 last Thursday that couldn't convert. That's every leader that night. Considering he was only picked off late, he should be tough in here. (2) ASCENDANT had the lead at the 1/2 in that race and he's another who is likely better than he looks off that line. (4) P L MUNSON was great in his first start, but he's missed some time now; your call. (3) FIXED IDEA is worth a look for the exotics off his one good qualifier.
Race 3
(1) LORIS ROCK STAR closed well from the clouds last week, but he couldn't catch (7) SOMEHOWSOMEDAY, who was making his first start in a claimer a winning one. Slight nod to the former here with him getting a better post for this. (8) SANTANNA TONY finished with broken equipment in two straight now he moves to the hot Gallucci barn off the claim. I'll add him to Pick 5 tickets. (3) BADLANDS BADBOY looks logical to take another smaller share here.
Race 4
(4) R U TALKIN absolutely flew in the lane last week to take another win and he's hard to take a stand against at this point. (7) PANTHER SEELSTER was against the bias and still hung in okay. He has upset possibilities here. (5) AREUKIDDINMECABBIE can't seem to beat the choice, but he's in great form and is a contender for a big piece of this. (9) DON'T DILLY DALLY roared home aided by the bias last week and this is much tougher; small share predicted.
Race 5
(3) CHEYENNE FORD was first up on a night where that wasn't a good place to be and he can improve in his second start off the claim here; top call. (2) MITT JAGGER drops into a claimer here and he's worth a look in this field. (6) REGIL TIGER looks like he's cycling back to a win soon, so I'll use him here. (1) LEVY TAYLORE can sit a good trip and sneak into the Super here.
Race 6
In a race that appears wide-open, I'll stab with (9) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL who gets her favorite driver McNair back after an improved effort in this class last time. (2) HETTIES COMMANDER had no chance the way the leader gapped out the field - which eventually benefitted the pocket-sitter. He is in with a good chance here. (6) BATTING STATS faces easier here and he should wake up for a hot barn. (7) PRESQUILLE rode the bias to a narrow fast-closing loss, but I'll use him only underneath in this spot.
Race 7
(3) SUNSHINE INN was about two strides short of a win last week and she should be in the mix right from the start here; slight nod. (4) MAGNOLIA SEELSTER had no shot of hanging on the way the track was playing. She could jump up and win this. (2) AND NOW THERES YOU bounced back with a solid effort at Flamboro where she was nailed in the very last stride. She should be good for a share racing on or near the lead. (1) REDHOT N SPORTY is getting closer every start but it's hard to predict if she'll be close enough turning for home to beat them all.
Race 8
(7) STROMAN was right there all the way last time, including keeping up in the wicked final 1/4. He may wire these. (5) MACH DIESEL is a homebred related to several good winners that looks ready for this debut; using. (6) BEACH BABY BEE keeps coming close and it's only a matter of time before this one graduates. (2) SLIM SHADY is the first offspring from his dam, but his lone qualifier was good enough to make him a player here.
Race 9
(4) GOLD EDITION is one I put a star beside last week for a terrific effort on the lead which was the worst place to be that night. I'm singling him in this late Pick 4. (7) Y C BROADWAY wasn't far behind the choice, but he rode the closer bias. He can complete this exacta. (3) BEHOLDER raced much better as expected last time and she is a good one to use underneath here. (1) KUIL DEVA is always for consideration for the bottom of Tris and Supers as she is here again.
Race 10
(8) INTRIGUED AGAIN raced great against the front-end bias last week and he can beat these if he is in within range turning for home. (2) CLASSIC PRO was second here on Monday night in an improved effort; using. (4) SOME PLAYA drops again, and he should be a player vs. these. (5) VALIDUS DEO has two even finishes in a row and it wouldn't be a shock to see Roy move this one up tonight. (6) NOTETOSELF HANOVER is one who figures to take a smaller share racing near the front here.