Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 1/31 Analysis
Best Bet: P L MUNSON (5th)
Spot Play: BETTORS WESTERN (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5,9/2,3/2,3,4/4,5/2,5 = $14.40
EARLY PICK: 4,5/2,5/2,3/4,7 = $16
LATE PICK 4: 4,7/3.4.6/7,8/3,9 = $24
MEET STATS: 137 - 430 / $768.60 (-$91.40)
BEST BETS: 17 - 39 / $62.70 (-$15.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 39 / $90.20 (+$12.20)
Race 1
In a race full of win-shy types, I'll try (9) TRAVEL WINNER who may be able to take these if he gets sent by Henry. (2) SOUTHWIND SPARTAN couldn't hold on late but the track was unkind to speed that night. He's logical here, but this is also his 19th try. (5) JAYPORT DELILAH raced better last week, but she couldn't convert off a perfect second-over trip. McNair often moves these types up, so I'll use her again. (8) FAN THE FLAMES can't seem to seal the deal, but he can likely stick around for a share here.
Race 2
(2) FLY IN STYLE will be much lower odds this week, but he tipped his hand with a strong back 1/2 last week and he gets my nod. (3) SPORTJET RAY had no chance with the trip he got last week. Sharp improvement is possible from a better post here. (1) MACHARITA was a strong second to a well-meant winner who has already come back to win again and off that race she is a top contender, but, what price would you take on a horse with a 0 for 37 record? (4) ARYA STARK has shown promise and she's not out of this, but I prefer using her underneath here.
Race 3
(4) DOTTIE looked a winner last week, but the class-dropping leader had something left late. She gets a slight nod here. (2) FLYING ISA A made a big move then tired vs. better and he may go favored here. He should have a big shot vs. these. (3) SEVERUS HANOVER has been showing some signs and he has upset potential here. (5) ALERT HANOVER had an okay comeback race. He may close for a small piece of this.
Race 4
(5) TOMY TERROR missed a week, but that might not be a bad thing for him the way he has been raced hard recently. He's the one to catch again. (4) KWICKY KWAANZAA was a good second to a sharp winner last time and he merits a long look here. (1) ER QUINN will likely sit a good trip and take a small share again. (6) DARCEE N adds Lasix, but he's hard to like for anything more than a smaller share.
Race 5
(5) P L MUNSON could be a big chalk here off his powerful 54 2/5 back 1/2 in his debut. A much more aggressive steer is expected. (2) BIG BULLY paced a strong back 1/2 of his own in his lone qualifier and I'll use him in the multis off that effort. (3) ASCENDANT had no shot from where he was sitting at the 1/2 last week. He can sneak onto the ticket here starting from a better post. (6) GOODERTHANGOUDA is worth a look for the exotics in his debut off a decent qualifier.
Race 6
(3) Y C BROADWAY enters the Auciello barn returning from a break and this isn't the toughest spot; top call. (2) WIKI HANOVER was out of position last week and she had no chance of passing them all. I'll use her in this Pick 4 starting from a much better post. (7) KUIL DEVA comes late for a slice every week. I expect more of the same here. (9) CHARMBO GOLDEN qualified well enough to suggest he's in with a shot here, but it's hard to predict how aggressive he will be driven starting from out there while making his sophomore debut.
Race 7
(4) LEADER TONIGHT showed enough in the Snowshoe series to make him a strong contender vs. non-winners of two here. (7) R U TALKIN already won in this class last time and he is hard to leave out here shooting for three wins in a row. (3) TRAGICALLY HIP flies home to get slices frequently. I'll use him underneath here. (6) SOMEHOWSOMEDAY drops out of the Snowshoe series also and he can hit the ticket vs. these.
Race 8
(6) UNPRECEDENTED's December 13th race would beat these if he can replicate it and facing much easier here gives him a good chance of doing so. (4) INSPECTOR MURDOCH couldn't get close to a strong winner last time, but he fits better here, and he should contend. (3) BADLANDS BADBOY can leave then sit a good trip near the front. He's another that's in with a decent chance. (9) RAMBLINTIME produced a fast last 1/4 for McClure last week. He's worth a look at a price.
Race 9
(7) SHOE SHINE couldn't quite reach the winner last week, but he holds a post position advantage on that rival here, so I'll call him to turn the tables. (8) CROCADILE CANYON got the jump on the choice last time and he has hit the top of his form, so a repeat isn't out of the question here. (2) REIKI seems likely to leave hard then sit a trip near the front to take a share; using underneath. (9) LATE NIGHT would be ranked higher of he had a better post here.
Race 10
(3) BETTORS WESTERN goes for the Gallucci barn here in a good spot after shipping north; top call. (9) DON MCWHITE gets McNair here and that's when he usually produces his best; beware. (8) LUKE AND DUKE has been racing well in this class and he merits consideration for use underneath here. (7) INTRIGUED AGAIN has been racing better of late and his good late kick can get him a slice here. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER will likely show speed in this spot and it wouldn't be a shock if he bettered this placing.