Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 12/26 Analysis

Meet Stats – 92 – 289 / $523.20 (-$54.80)
Best Bets – 12 – 29 / $39.80 (- $18.20)
Spot Plays – 4 – 29 / $33.30 (-$24.70)
Best Bet – PIKACHU HANOVER (6TH)
Spot Play – TRIP ACES HANOVER (5TH)
Pick 5 – 6,8,10/7,8/1,6,8/2,4,6/1,5 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 2,4,6/1,5/1,6/2,5,6 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 2,4,7,8/4,9/6/1,4,8,9,10 = $40
Race 1 – FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 OR 1 $7,000 LIFETIME. AE: NW OF 2 LT WHO ARE NW OF A RACE LAST 10 STARTS. - **GTD $50,000 Pick 5**
(8) MY BABY GIRL comes off a solid effort at Flamboro where she came from an impossible spot to get 2nd. That was a good try and her odds will climb here. I’ll take a stab. (10) CANTSTOPTHEFEELIN tripped out to win here last Friday and she should be right in the hunt again despite starting from the second tier. (6) CHASETHECLOUDSAWAY gave it a good try on the engine in the same race and she should be a player vs. these. (3) SPORTS MIRACLE – with 9 slices in 18 starts – is always a good one to use underneath.
Race 2- NW $3,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $7,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
(8) HEAD TURNING JAG gets Henry back here and that should mean aggression in this second try at the bottom conditioned level; top call. (7) ANGELS KID gave a good effort in an extended distance race, continuing to show improved form; using. (5) YOOOUKILIS was in to go here on Monday at press time. He can produce a solid try at this level. (2) MARQUIS VOLO classes up well vs. these and he can pop if ready to go coming off a break.
Race 3 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1 RACE OR $8,100 LIFETIME
(8) SLIM SHADY has already shown he can win off a qualifier and that 27 4/5 kicker catches the eye; top call. (6) NONEYABIZZNESS dropped several seconds last time despite racing with broken equipment and he’s worth a look here at a price. (1) EATAAMS SPORTSBABY moves off the worst post for this and he is another viable multi-race price option. (7) BIG BULLY is always a good one to use underneath.
Race 4 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $8,000 TO $10,000 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 4**
(2) E L WILD SPIRIT was a strong winner here in this class last week and he gets the call to repeat. (4) CROCADILE CANYON drops and picks up McNair for this. There are some things to like here. (6) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL also drops, and he should wake up with a better effort in this spot. (10) BLUE LINE has raced well in Ontario before. Give him a look for the bottom of the Tri and Super.
Race 5 - NIAGARA - FINAL - 3-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
Good betting race here. I’ll side with (5) TRIP ACES HANOVER who impressed pacing a 27 1/5 third 1/4 uncovered on the rim before pacing on to victory. (1) GIGGLE HANOVER is perfectly slotted to lay in the weeds until very late then pounce here; beware. (6) ARYA STARK tripped out to an easy win, but she remains a viable contender. (2) DREAMFAIR ZENFIRE will be the likely pacesetter again. I see her as a fringe player in this final but if she can steal a breather, she may prove me wrong.
Race 6 - NW 3 (FM 5) RACES OR $40,000 6 (FM $50,000) LIFETIME
(6) PIKACHU HANOVER comes back in six days here and he should be much sharper and tough to beat in this spot. (1) ZIG ZAG couldn’t get past a sharp leader last week but that was a good effort and he looks like the main danger here. (4) KUIL DEVA and (7) JUST MAYBE THE ONE are two price options to consider using underneath here.
Race 7 - NW $3,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW 7 $7,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
(2) SHADOW OF A DAUT was well-meant and sent hard early last week but he was under siege the whole way. I’ll give him another shot here expecting an improved trip. (5) OSBORNE SEELSTER dueled the choice – and himself – into submission last week. He is another who is likely to get a different trip here and he can take this. (6) SAGEBRUSH SID chased Sintra in his qualifier. If he has his gait issues ironed out, he should be a threat here. (10) MOONRWRITER should get a good stalking trip and he can sneak into the Tri or Super.
Race 8 – CLAIMING HANDICAP $12,000 TO $15,000
(2) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP has been razor-sharp since being claimed and he can get a better trip here and win again. (1) ON CRUISE CONTROL impressed winning while cutting solid fractions despite missing a month. He is a must-use right back. (6) BRANDON HANOVER should enter contention here on the class drop but I prefer to use him underneath. (9) BARN ONE will get ignored in the wagering but his driver is running hot and he can come on late for a slice here.
Race 9 – VALEDICTORY - FINAL - 3-YEAR-OLD COLTS & GELDINGS
With so much speed lined up on the outside of the gate, this stakes final appears to set up for a closer and (4) WHAT UP MO might be the one at a price with an expected change in tactics likely. (8) LYONS PEGASUS is right there every week and he can race well from anywhere. He is a must-use in this Pick 4. (2) JKNR LIKETELL likely won’t get bet much here, but he is sharp and dangerous. (7) WINDSUN RICKY had an impossible trip last week. He remains a viable contender in a race that will likely come down to trip.
Race 10 – FILLIES & MARES, 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES 10 OR $34,500 LIFETIME
(9) BETSEA produced another big winning effort last week and post 9 should help her price as she shoots for a threepeat; top call. (4) SHEBESAILIN had some good late pace to offer last week. She should threaten this time. (1) SHESONEHOTWRITER was a solid second to the choice last week and she should take at least a share again. (3) BIG NARANCIA steps up to meet tougher here. I prefer using her on the bottom in this spot.
Race 11 – 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2 RACES 11 OR $25,000 LIFETIME
(6) MILITARY SECRET’s 26 2/5 kicker sticks out here and he should be ready to roll off a break. He gets the nod. (7) EXCAVATOR has improving form and he should be the main danger here; using. (9) JM MANDAMIN moves to the worst post off a win and I prefer to use him underneath here. (10) TUCKER CREEK has a few things to like and he can trip out to nab a share this time.
Race 12 – F&M, NW $3,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $7,900 LAST 10 STARTS AE: NW $1,500 LAST 4
(8) MAKE MINE MOCHA made a nice late move last week and I’ll take a stab with her here at a price with McNair getting the drive again. (9) DONTBRUISECARRIE comes off a nice win in Ohio and she fits well here. She is a contender despite her post. (1) KAYS SHADOW races best at this level and I’ll toss her in the late Pick 4. (4) SLY ELEANOR gets a big driver change here but she has missed more than a month. She will likely be overbet in this spot. (10) MISS MADY has won two of her last three racing in this class and she is hard too toss although I’m not sure a second-tier post is great for her.