Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 12/20 Analysis
Best Bet: BEAUTY CUTIE (6th)
Spot Play: LYONS HEDGEABET (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,5,7/7,8/1,3,5/2,9/4,6,9,10 = $38.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,9/4,6,9,10/2/2,3,8 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,8/1,3/3,7/1,2,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 90 - 270 / $499.90 (-$40.10)
BEST BETS: 10 - 24 / $37.40 (-$10.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 26 / $64.20 (+$12.20)
Race 1
(7) SOUTHWIND SPARTAN may have won last time he raced for a purse had he not broke in the lane. He should be a good price here and I'll give him the nod. (2) FAN THE FLAMES keeps trying hard but it seems if there is a rival close to him in the stretch, he can't hang on. He'll get there one of these times, but he's hard to love at what will likely be a short price here. (3) P L LOUIGI has some races in November that would be good enough to win this if he can stay trotting; using. (5) MISS TABITHA adds Lasix and she's another I'll use as I spread in this Pick 5 opener.
Race 2
(8) CHEYENNE FORD keeps rolling along and he looks best here; top call. (7) MISTER GODRO looked a winner briefly in the stretch last week until a bomb flew past him right on the line. He is a contender here. (6) LAUTNER SEELSTER should be closing again for another slice vs. this group. (2) CAMS TUX is going well right now and he should take at least a small share here.
Race 3
(5) DANCER HALL looked like he was just toying with his rivals last week the way he roared up to win when called upon; call to repeat. (3) DUNBAR HALL may have disliked the slop last time. He should be the main threat to the choice. (1) MUSICAL RHYTHM should revert to a stalking style here which gives him a better chance. (4) FREE WILLY HANOVER is a tremendous earner who will no doubt take home another good check here.
Race 4
(2) JONAH - a homebred 1/2-brother to local Preferred pacer Ellis Park ($745K, 1:48 4/5) lands in a good spot to debut off his one sharp qualifier and he gets my nod. (9) NORTHERN SPORTSMAN kicked home in 27 3/5 in his debut and he may get a more aggressive steer here despite starting from the outside; using. (8) LYONS EXPRESS showed little as chalk in his debut, but he could improve sharply here at a price; consider for exotics. (1) SMART THINKING can sit a trip and stay for a share.
Race 5
(9) LYONS HEDGEABET elected to stay in last week and she finished with pace. Her price should go up here and I'll take a stab with her. (10) ODDS ON STEPHANIE gets a second-tier post here due to a late scratch and she is certainly dangerous leaving from there. (6) SHADOW WORLD got a great trip racing near a slow pace and although she can't be faulted for that, trip could be quite different here. (4) THRILLONTHEBEACH was thwarted by that slow early pace and she remains a viable contender.
Race 6
(2) BEAUTY CUTIE was stuck on poor cover while the winner was opening up a huge lead last time. She was an unlucky loser and she should make amends here. (3) QUADRANGLE is still winless, but he had a sharp qualifier for his new trainer and that makes him worth a look here. (8) KUIL DEVA makes a great living out of taking slices. Expect more of the same here. (7) MAGICS LUCKY CHARM is another good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 7
(3) LYONS BEACHBOY should get an easier trip moving to a much better post here; top call. (2) TALBOTCREEK DUKE's potent late kick makes him dangerous despite moving up a level; using. (8) AGEDCHEDDAR HANOVER faced the same tough winner twice straight and with that rival gone, he's in with a shot here. (6) LEGAL BETTOR drops out of a stakes series for this and he could better this placing, but, he may also get overbet.
Race 8
(1) JUST MAYBE THE ONE has developed a potent late kick and he gets the call to come right back and win again. (3) MEADOWBRANCH PATSY was right there with the choice last time. This race could come down to these same two again in the lane. (5) FERN AND DANDY steps up off a nice maiden win and his good tactical speed puts him in the mix here. (6) DAISY RIVER was a bit of a runaway last time before breaking. She can be closer here is she is more manageable.
Race 9
(7) JENKINS CREEK has been solid most of the year and with Cheyenne Ford in a different race tonight, he can resume his winning ways. (3) KWICKY KWANZAA drops a level and he should be the main threat. (1) DARCEE N couldn't hack it first up last week but with a better trip here, he can hit the board. (8) MCSINNER MAN flew by them all late to take his first win of the year but these are tougher. I'll let him beat me starting from out there.
Race 10
(1) STOLEN ART took a while to kick in down the lane, but once he did, there was no doubt he was passing them all; call to repeat. (7) REAL WILLEY drops back into a claimer and he must be considered at this level. (2) ROYAL COURTIER adds Lasix for trainer Auciello which is enough for me to toss him on my Pick 4 ticket. (8) SHADOW OF LINDY is racing well, and he should share again racing from close range. (9) UNPRECEDENTED is a bit of an in-and-outer, but he comes off a sharp win and he merits a look for the exotics here.