Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 12/19 Analysis

Meet Stats – 88 – 287 / $501.60 (-$73.40)
Best Bets – 11 – 27 / $36.50 (- $17.50)
Spot Plays – 5 – 28 / $37.90 (-$18.10)
Best Bet – DREAMFAIR ZENFIRE – (10TH)
Spot Play - SHADOW OF A DAUT – (5TH)
Pick 5 – 1,10/1,3,4/3,4,7/1,2/2,3,9 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 1,2/2,3,9/4,8/3,6,7 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 8,10/2,5,7,11/4/1,4,6,10 = $32
Race 1 - 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT AE: 2YO - NW 2 LT- **GTD $50,000 Pick 5**
In a wide-open race to kick off the Pick 5, I'll side with (10) PERISTERA who has been producing improved late speed in her recent starts. Maybe the 17th try will be the charm for her. (1) JOANI TREELANE got hammered at the windows last week then blew up at the start. If she stays flat here, she should contend. (6) HETTIES MAGIC just missed last week, but now he loses hot driver Young. I'll use him underneath. (9) PROFOUND PARAGON showed a bit of late interest last week. She may close late to land in the Super at a big price.
Race 2- NIAGARA SERIES - 2nd Leg - 3YO FILLIES
(4) TRIP ACES HANOVER just failed to last as the choice last week now he returns quicker and gets McNair for a return drive; top call. (3) CRANBERRY BRIE was good racing off the shelf, and she should be a threat here. (1) GIGGLE HANOVER was flying late last week, but the short field may work against her with horses waiting for others to move. She takes slices more frequently than wins, too; your call. (5) FEAR NO EVIL raced evenly last week. A similar effort can get him a share here.
Race 3 - VALEDICTORY SERIES - 2nd Leg - 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS
(3) LEGION SEELSTER was trying to close racing first up into a 26 4/5 closing 1/4 last week which was mission impossible. He returns quicker here, and he should have a good shot. (7) WINDSUN RICKY is as sharp as a tack and the one to beat, but he obviously doesn't need to win here to make the final. (4) LYONS PEGASUS has been right with Windsun Ricky the last two starts and he is another in with a decent chance here. (2) JKNR LIKETELL closed like a rocket after chasing a slow pace last week but this is no easy spot and I prefer to use him underneath.
Race 4 - 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT - **GTD $50,000 Pick 4**
(2) TWIN B FRENCHTOAST raced much better last week and this is a good spot for him to break his maiden. (1) STAR DOG also improved when third behind the choice and he looks like the main threat. (5) WATCHIN THE MAGIC finds a good spot to make his debut and he's worth a look for the exotics. (3) CENTURY GIGALO had some good late speed in his qualifier; consider using in the Super and Tri at a price.
Race 5 - NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(9) SHADOW OF A DAUT has been racing in several tough spots recently and although he has yet to win this year, I'm going to swing for the fences with him in this field. (3) BILLS FELLA raced tough last week after getting used hard early and he should be the one to beat here. (2) SHADOW MOON drops to the bottom here and he should be in the hunt early starting from the inside; using. (5) KINNDER JACKSON gets a notable driver change to Roy here and he is another in with a shot in what should be a contentious dash.
Race 6 - VALEDICTORY - 2nd Leg - 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS
(4) VIRGIN STORM stole a slow opening 1/2 which made him impossible to catch last week, but he can and should be sharper coming back quicker and having had a race over the track; call to repeat. (8) WHAT UP MO was flying late, and he merits a long look here because he is capable vs. these. (5) CONBOYVILLE will be closing again likely to round out the Tri or Super. (3) CAPTAIN CASH is capable of sneaking into the Super if he takes a following trip the whole way this time.
Race 7 - CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(3) MISTER GODRO draws much better here and he should get put into play earlier in the mile by Roy; slight nod. (7) BAROSSA BLUE GENES was claimed again and there is a good chance he will be taken from this race, too. Expect an aggressive try. (6) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL goes for Auciello for the second start off the claim and his price goes up now. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (10) GRITS N GRAVY should be in the mix for at least a slice.
Race 8 - CLM $15,000 for NW $30,000 LT
(8) RAYS KREDIT took all the money at the windows after dropping in for a tag last week and while he didn't get the job done, sometimes horses improve second time in the same class. (10) DONT DILLY DALLY races well at this level and this isn't a tough spot; using. (2) FARMERS TAN can be closer early here. Notice he was heavily-bet last week. I’ll use him underneath. (7) CHIK MAGUIRE is a good one to use in the bottom slot of the Super in this spot.
Race 9 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 – 1 3/8ths Miles
(11) ODD BALL had a good comeback race and he stands a good chance vs. these. The 11-horse field should help his price, too. (7) ANGELS KID dropped two seconds when winning off the claim now he picks up hot driver Macdonald here; using. (5) TIKI TAKA should be closer early here and that gives him an upset chance; consider for the late Pick 4. (2) ALEXUS EH did well last time considering her long trip. She is yet another viable Pick 4 option.
Race 10 – NIAGARA SERIES – 2nd Leg – 3YO FILLIES
(4) DREAMFAIR ZENFIRE was lights out in the opening round of this series and in this short field, she stands a very good chance of repeating; Pick 4 single. (5) ARYA STARK is the other opening leg winner, but she may not be helped by the short field as a flow might not develop. (2) PASSPORT HANOVER made two moves last week in a decent effort. She could split the top two if she rides the choice’s pocket. (6) MARY GOODNIGHT should leave hard to get position and hang around for a share.
Race 11 – CLM $15,000 for NW $65,000 LT
(6) ST LADS CASH was well-bet throughout the wagering period last week and he delivered. This is a good spot for him to repeat. (4) BR ROYAL BOOM raced well when third to the choice last time and he should be the main danger, (1) EASY FLYER should get another good trip and he is another who could win this if everything falls right. (10) SHIFTY LEO and (2) CROSS MY MIND are two that should be passing a few of these late that can land in the Super and/or High-5.