Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 12/13 Analysis

Best Bet: MAJO LOU BEKA (9th)

Spot Play: STOLEN ART (4th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 5,7,9/3,7/2,3,6/4,8/3,4 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 4,8/3,4/6,7,8/3,4 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 3,4/1,3/7/1,3,6,7,10 = $20

MEET STATS: 78 - 230 / $436.20 (-$23.80)

BEST BETS: 9 - 20 / $34.10 (-$5.90)

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 22 / $43.60 (-$0.40)

Race 1

(9) ARAZI has the early and late speed needed to wire this suspect group, even starting from the worst post. (7) MISTER GORDO interests me racing off the claim when he was winning over a 5/8ths mile track in 1:54 2/5 only three starts back; using. (5) CAMS TUX isn’t known for stringing wins together and his December 3rd victory kind of fell into his lap when the back half was more than five seconds slower than the opening half, but he looked good doing it, so I’ll use him here. (1) DARCEE N moves inside and figures to improve, but what price will you take on a horse coming in with 58 straight losses?

Race 2

(3) FAN THE FLAMES couldn’t repel the winner last time, but he was well clear in second and this is another spot where he might break through; slight nod. (7) FERN AND DANDY already won in this class in just his second lifetime start two races back, so he’s a must-use for me. (5) SPELL BOUNDER K can close late for another smaller share here. (4) BRYDOWN HOUSTON is another good one to use underneath who is unlikely to threaten for the win.

Race 3

(3) TALBOTCREEK DUKE gets a driver change to a McClure who has won more than 300 races this year from a McClure with six 2018 wins. That should be enough to tip the scale in his favor facing these. (2) SMART THINKING was in the photo with the choice in a much better performance and I’ll use him in this Pick 5. (6) NORTHERN SPORTSMAN is a debuting $16K London sale purchase who is a full-brother to local winner Northern Rebel. He isn’t impossible in this spot. (1) FOX VALLEY RIVIERA tired late in his Mohawk debut and he can better this placing if he gets a breather this time.

Race 4

This race has the appearance of one that will fall apart late and I like (4) STOLEN ART’S chances to pick them all off; top call. (8) SHADOW OF LINDY has been right there in both starts in claimers and he could win this with a slightly easier trip. (1) MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP will get bet again but he needs more than a 31 and change final 1/4. (6) BADLANDS BADBOY couldn’t keep up to an extremely sharp winner but that was a good effort and he can be a factor here.

Race 5

(4) MEADOWBRANCH PATSY gets to drop a level here which might be all she needs to notch her sixth win of the year. (3) JUST MAYBE THE ONE has been good in his last three Mohawk starts and he should be motoring late again; using. (5) POUND STERLING can leave hard for position and hang around for a slice again. (2) GRADABRA is another speedy sort who should make up part of the winning Superfecta.

Race 6

(7) JENKINS CREEK is very sharp, and he races off the claim here. He gets the nod over (6) CHEYENNE FORD, who usually strings a couple of good races together and he comes off a nice win. (8) LAUTNER SEELSTER drops and he should be a stretch threat. (1) SIX FLAGS does better racing in a claimer and he could add some value to the exotics here.

Race 7

(4) BEAUTY CUTIE was impressive winning in this class last time and she clearly has hit her best stride; call to repeat. (3) VICTORIA SWAN ships in off a blowout win and is worth a look going for a high percentage barn. (7) KUIL DEVA makes her living taking slices in this class. I’ll use her underneath here. (8) STORMONT ROYALTY is another who takes smaller shares frequently who can hit the ticket.

Race 8

(3) THRILLONTHEBEACH ripped off a new lifetime best mile last week and she may be hard to stop in her quest for a threepeat here. (1) ODDS ON STEPHANIE ships in and goes for top connections off a sharp qualifier in New Jersey. If the choice gets beat, this is the likeliest upsetter. (6) LYONS HEDGEABET is always right there, but she was all out to beat non-winners of two last time, so I expect her to finish on the edges here. (2) MISS ROCKADALI will be winging it on the engine for as far as she goes; small share predicted.

Race 9

(7) MAJO LOU BEKA blew his opponents away while taking a new speed badge last week. He could be one of many winning chalks on this night. (4) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP is in solid form and he should provide a challenge to the choice if he stays flat; using. (8) BARN ONE has improving form but he may get left with too much to do from out there. (2) HEZA BIG DEALER is a good one to use on the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

Race 10

(1) DELOREAN SEELSTER slipped past late last time when he dropped to this class and this looks like an easier field to me; call to repeat. (6) TRAGICALLY ZIP passed them all to win a class lower and he really flew late. I’ll use him in this Pick 5. (7) WYN showed good early zip racing off the bench and he could crash the exotics at a price here making his second start back. (10) LYONS BEACHBOY contends every week and he should have a say despite starting from the worst post. (3) ROCKABILLY CHARM ships in off a sharp win and he should get a good following trip here; using underneath.