Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 11/8 Analysis
Best Bet: TRIX AND STONES (6TH)
Spot Play: ROYAL COURTIER (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,6,7/2,7/1,3,6/4,6,7/2,3,4,10 = $43.20
EARLY PICK: 4,6,7/2,3,4,10/4/2,6 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 2,6/3,8,10/4,9/8,10 = $24
MEET STATS: 11 - 40 / $71.40 (-$8.60)
BEST BETS: 3 - 4 / $14.50 (+$6.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 4 / $11.10 (+$3.10)
Race 1
(7) HEAD TO THE BEACH's 27-flat kicker from his debut paced in the slop should play well in this field. I look for a more aggressive Henry drive here. (6) MCPAT - a $7,500 Goshen Yearling Sale buy - had a decent qualifier in the slop and this isn't the toughest spot to start out. (4) NAGLE could be closer here if he can avoid being first up when the pace accelerates again. (5) SHRIMP AND GRITS could fare better here if the track is dry.
Race 2
(7) ALLERAGE STARGAZER - as expected - woke up with McNair at the controls last week and almost pulled off the upset. Price drops, but she should be tough to catch here. (2) STORMONT ROYALTY interests me because she has already beaten non-winners of three (four starts back); using. (8) WIKI HANOVER is in good form but likely to take a small share again. (4) SETTHEWORLDONFIRE is another who is usually around the money who is a good one to use underneath.
Race 3
(3) JOHNNY BRAVO made a good recovery last time after breaking early while racing in the slop. Perhaps a dry track is what he needs; top call. (1) DRAFT YEAR also blew up at the start when heavily backed. He is another bounce-back candidate here if he can stay flat. (6) CHARLEY ON A HARLEY was the beneficiary when the top two choices broke. He's a contender right back, but his price will drop sharply. (2) EDDY figures for another small share in this field.
Race 4
(6) LYONS BEACHBOY was used hard early and he still stuck around for a share. A better trip makes him a winner here. (4) DREAMFAIR CHARRO made up significant ground from the 1/4 to the finish last time and he should be right there again vs. these. (7) D M JOHNWICK had a tough trip and he hung in well despite that rough journey. He's not out of this. (8) SOMESHOWSOMEDAY faltered late now he gets McNair back which could make a difference here.
Race 5
(3) REGAL MAGICIAN gets Hudon here and he drove him in his two qualifiers. His gait issues are always a concern, but he could pop at a price here if he stays trotting. (4) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY almost won in this class two back before getting the 10-hole last time. He seems like a logical contender in here. (2) BURNIN MONEY raced better last week and it wouldn't be a big shock if he broke through for his first win of 2018 in this spot. (10) ADVERSITY may be the class of this field, but it will probably be tough for him to work out a winning trip from out there; small share predicted.
Race 6
(4) TRIX AND STONES takes on elders here, but he just seems faster and classier; top call. (1) ESA was a solid winner from the worst post last time and he could pose a threat to the choice if he trips out. (2) JUST JEWEL is stuck on one win, but he often fires home quickly to land on the ticket; using underneath. (10) PENNANT SEELSTER is another good one to use underneath in this spot considering his solid recent form.
Race 7
(2) ROYAL COURTIER gets a notable barn change here and his form is decent to start with. He gets my nod. (6) TREASURE WRITER was impressive vaulting past late in his most recent win; using. (10) STOLEN ART drops into claimers here which makes him worth a look for the exotics. (5) BRUNO FROM MARS has been racing well in claimers at Flamboro and he can hit the Super here racing from close range.
Race 8
(8) SLIP INTO GLIDE raced a long way on the rim before making front yet he stayed game. He should be tough here. (10) STONEBRIDGE HALL goes for Moreau off the claim here in a spot that doesn't look tough. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (3) FLUFF ME UP faces easier here and he's another worth adding on late Pick 4 tickets. (7) AVUNCULAR has a good record and sharp gate speed. He could hang in there here for a slice at a price.
Race 9
(4) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ has worked out a couple of good trips to win, but there's no reason why he can't do it again here. A threepeat looms. (9) LISVINNIE was much better last week when dropped back down to his proper class and he should be the main threat again. (7) MUSSELSFRRMBRUSSELS has hit his best stride again and he should hit the board at a minimum. (3) JIMMY BE GOOD finishes 4th frequently. He's a good one to finish off your Super ticket.
Race 10
(8) JENKINS CREEK looks best here and there's a good chance he'll control it from start to finish. (10) REBEL SOLDIER has finished in the exacta 1/3 of the time in the past two years and he should be a good price from out there; using. (7) DARCEE N hasn't won in forever, but he can close for a slice vs these. (9) TOMY TERROR is an in-and-outer that could hit the ticket if he leaves this time. (2) HASHTAG HUGHIE had a brutal trip last time now he drops. He is one to consider for deeper Pick 4 tickets.