Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 1/16 Analysis

Meet Stats – 112 – 365 / $626.80 (-$103.20)

Best Bets – 15 – 36 / $49.70 (- $22.30)

Spot Plays – 6 – 36 / $42.90 (-$29.10)

Best Bet – MORNING HAS BROKEN (5TH)

Spot Play – SHESONEHOTWRITER – (9TH)

Early Pick 5 – 4,7,8/2,5,7/1,4,7/2,3,5/3 = $16.20

Late Pick 5 - 1,2,4,8/2,3,8/5,6,10/3/3,5,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4 – 2,3,5/3/1,2,4,8/2,3,8 = $36

Late Pick 4 – 2,3,8/5,6,10/3/3,5,9 = $27

Race 1 – CLM HDCP $12,000 TO $15,000 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 5**

(4) HOPES SOLO looked a sure winner in mid-stretch last week only to stall late racing on the innermost path, which is significant because not one winner that night finished on the inside at the wire. I’ll try her to turn the tables on (8) ON THE SLY, who is clearly the one to beat going back to Moreau’s barn off that score. (7) ALPHA SEELSTER had some success here in November racing at this level and he’s worth a look for this Pick 5. (1) SETANTA was a winner last time he raced for a tag; consider for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 2- BLIZZARD - 1ST LEG - 3 & 4-YEAR-OLD FILLIES & MARES

(2) NO WHERE TO HIDE’s 27 2/5 kicker at Flamboro sticks out because you rarely see that in a NW $15K LT class. I’ll give her the nod here. (5) BIG NARANCIA is one-for-one with McClure driving and she should be formidable in this spot; using. (7) CHASETHECLOUDSAWAY was strong in the lane last week, easily drawing off to a sharp win. She is improving and I’ll use her in the Pick 5. (3) BETSEA was no match for a winner who didn’t fare well next time out. I’ll use her on the bottom only.

Race 3 – CLM $15,000 for NW $67,000 LT

(7) SINFUL got a clean line following a break in stride two starts back and his price should go up here in a race where he is likely to be more aggressive; slight nod. (4) P L MOLLY raced better when in for a tag and she should be right there again. (1) ARCHWAY has been racing okay in this class and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Roy trip him out and win here. (8) LONNIES CROWN has shown gate speed in the past and he could spice up the exotics here if Drury blasts with him early.

Race 4 – CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 4**

(3) OAKROCK ELDORADO raced tough last week, only to be picked off by a razor-sharp rival in the last step. He gets the nod here. (5) TOMY TERROR flew late to get in the photo with the choice. He should be the main threat. (2) WINDSONG NAPOLEON faces easier here and draws better. There are some things to like with him. (8) STELIOS is a tough campaigner who should be near the front early again and he can stick around for a slice.

Race 5 - BLIZZARD - 1ST LEG - 3 & 4-YEAR-OLD FILLIES & MARES

(3) MORNING HAS BROKEN had missed three weeks between starts last week but she still might have won had she not shifted to the dead inside lane late in the stretch. She makes amends here. (6) SPORTJET RAY has been racing well for several weeks at Flamboro. She could add some value to the Exacta here. (1) ACEFORTYFOUR PAT has won half her starts in the past year and she gets Roy to drive here. She should be in the hunt despite facing better. (4) ERIKAS SHADOW is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers here.

Race 6 – CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 - Late Pick 5

(2) SPEED TO MARKET flew home to win from a tough spot on Monday night and he gets the call to repeat making a quick return here for the same claiming tag. (1) UNPRECEDENTED goes for the top “first off the claim” outfit after a decent try and he is on my multi-race tickets. (4) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP rode the outside bias to a win last week, but that was a solid effort nonetheless and he is a contender right back. (8) LEADER TONIGHT was an unlucky loser as chalk last week and he wouldn’t be the worst stab here at what is sure to be a better price.

Race 7 – 5YO and Younger NW1 or $9,600 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 4**

(3) SPRINGBRIDGE JIM gets a huge driver change here and he gets top call, but the price likely won’t be there. (2) DARTH FADER is a full brother to four winners, three of which won by their fifth start; using. (8) EXCELLENT NATION was picked off late by a rival that was pacing on a better path. He’s not out of this. (7) PRICELESS SUNSHINE is likely to show early speed again and last for only a small share.

Race 8 – CLM $15,000 for NW2 or $31,500 LT

(5) HAULIN OATS showed little from an outer post last time. He can rebound here moving to the middle of the gate, but he’ll have to bridge a big gap to beat (6) VILLAGE CHAMP, who was sharp in victory last week. (10) CHIK MAGUIRE produced a decent late kick for Henry last week; consider for the exotics. (2) DON’T DILLY DALLY draws well and he is capable of better here; using underneath.

Race 9 - BLIZZARD - 1ST LEG - 3 & 4-YEAR-OLD FILLIES & MARES

(3) SHESONEHOTWRITER was no match late for a rival that flew home in 26 flat, but she fits well here and gets the nod. (4) SIOCHAN was a Grassroots winner last year and she looks ready to roll; should be a threat. (6) LYONS TILT HANOVER had a horrendous trip last time. She can sneak into the picture here. (2) SHAD had a nice lane open for her in the stretch last week and she had little to offer. I’ll use her on the bottom only.

Race 10 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(9) Y C BROADWAY had a decent comeback start and now he gets driver Young who in 2018 drove him to three of his five lifetime wins; top call despite post. (3) SOMBRE had a rough go of it last week, but he draws better so he should get an improved trip; using. (5) MUSCLES JARED is worth a look off his 27 2/5 kicker is his qualifier. (2) VEYRON fits this class well and he should be in the hunt for at least a share. (7) MUSICAL SPELL often shares at this bottom conditioned level; use underneath.