Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 11/29 Analysis

Best Bet: LARRYS PETROCK (6th)

Spot Play: REAL WILLEY (4th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 1,2,5/2,4,5,10/7,9/5,6,7/2,4,5 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,7/2,4,5/3/1,7,8,9 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 1,7,8,9/3,5,6/4,5/3,8 = $48

MEET STATS: 55 - 160 / $307.90 (-$12.10)

BEST BETS: 7 - 14 / $27.70 (-$0.30)

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 16 / $39.10 (+ $7.10)

Race 1

(2) EMBOLDEN pressed some quick splits while uncovered and he faded late on a night where the front end was holding up in most races. He looks as good as any here and his price should be better now. (1) NORTHERN GLITZ couldn’t repel a sharp first-over challenger last week, but that was a good try and she should can contend here. (5) JULA GRAND CRU is unpredictable, but he’s already won in this class and he beat the choice that night; using. (10) EIGHTOCLOCKSTORM exits some fast miles at Northfield and he’s worth using here despite the poor draw.

Race 2

(4) NORTHERN DREAM has obvious inherent risk, but his qualifying win with McClure driving on 11/22 would make him tough here if he can repeat it. (5) FERN AND DANDY’s decent final 1/4 from her debut interests me in a race with seemingly few contenders. (2) FAN THE FLAMES also showed some late life when returning from a break and a more aggressive steer is likely looming here with the driver change. (10) P L LOUIGI has enough early speed to give him an outside chance here at a price.

Race 3

(9) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP looked so good winning last week that I’ll give him the call to repeat here despite him drawing the worst post. (7) ROYAL COURTIER faces much easier here and Drury will put him in play at the start; using. (5) MY TEEN IDOL wasn’t too far behind the choice after doing most of the work on the front end last week. He should be an exotics factor. (3) DUSTYLANEWESTY recovered well after breaking early last time and he is another to consider for Tris and Supers.

Race 4

(5) REAL WILLEY goes for red-hot connections of the claim here and he gets my nod. (7) RACEMUP goes for a barn that can move one up off the claim and attracts McNair; using. (6) AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER was simply outpaced by one sharp rival late last week. He should be competitive here despite stepping up a class. (3) MIRAMICHI DAVID should be a price again here and he can close late for a slice.

Race 5

(5) TALBOTCREEK DUKE was thwarted behind a slow pace but fired home quickly and he keeps McClure here; slight nod. (2) WRITE MY STORY was in the same circumstances in the same mile and he can improve moving inside. (4) EASTERN EXPOSURE ships west with a good record and he’s worth a look going for team McNair. (6) LIVELY LARRY finished okay in his debut and he could improve sharply here if he is asked to leave a bit better.

Race 6

(3) LARRYS PETROCK exploded off cover last week and he looked as impressive as he did early in his career; call to repeat. (6) INTRIGUED AGAIN moves to a much better post, which makes him an exotics factor at a price here. (1) RUSH TO JUDGEMENT was 1 to 9 when he won at The Meadowlands. Off that solid effort, he could share here. (4) BEACHIN LINDY should have an easier time on the front end here and last much longer.

Race 7

(8) TOMY TERROR has been on a roll for a hot barn and I’ll stick with him here. (9) JENKIS CREEK roared home to win off the claim last week. He is classy and can race effectively from anywhere; using. (1) CHEYENNE FORD is worth a look going for a barn that is dangerous racing off the claim. (7) HASHTAG HUGHIE got bet last week based on the barn change, but things didn’t go his way. I’ll use him again here.

Race 8

(6) WEST RIVER CINDY gets another chance here after an uncharacteristic break before the start last week. (3) HOPES SOLO should be in contention racing on or near the lead here if she stays flat; using. (5) MEADOWBRANCH PATSY has a record that’s hard to argue with even if she was beating up on lesser. I’ll toss her in the late Pick 4. (1) WIKI HANOVER is stuck on one win, but she almost always hits the board; consider for use on the bottom of exotic bets.

Race 9

(4) YOUNG MAN MATT paced two long miles in a row and kept coming in both and now he goes for a new barn here; slight nod. (5) MIDNIGHT MATT blew the field away last week and Roy has been winning with everything recently. I can’t leave him out. (8) SHADOW OF LINDY was second vs. better last time which makes him a contender here despite the wide draw. (1) REAL WICKED disappointed as chalk last time, but with a better trip, he could be right there.

Race 10

(8) SPORTS CHARM looked razor-sharp blowing by a leader that enjoyed soft fractions last week. His price should be good stepping up and moving outside; I’ll land here. (3) SHRIMP AND GRITS was too far back last time but closed willingly. He should be a factor here. (2) LEADER TONIGHT is another looking to repeat who draws well; in the mix. (6) DELOREAN SEELSTER was a winner last time he raced in a conditioned race and he’s worth using in a wide-open affair. (5) HEAD TO THE BEACH is right there every week and is another who can win this highly contentious race if he gets a trip.