Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 11/22 Analysis
Best Bet: HEY LIVVY (8th)
Spot Play: WEB CAM (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,7,9/3,7/2.9/5,6/1,3,6,7,10 = $24
EARLY PICK: 5,6/3,6,7,10/1,6/2,4,5 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,4,5/7/1,5,6,9/1,2 = $24
MEET STATS: 39 - 120 / $222.10 (-$17.90)
BEST BETS: 4 - 10 / $19.20 (-$0.80)
SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 12 / $21.80 (-$2.20)
Race 1
(7) MY TEEN IDOL raced close up in the snow last week and kicked home in 27 2/5 despite only finishing 4th. He fits well at this level and could break the 2018 goose egg in the win column tonight. (9) BARN ONE is a definite use in the Pick 5 dropping into a claimer for the first time. (4) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP flew home in the snow in his November 15th qualifier and he could wake up in a big way here. (5) NORTHERN REBEL is usually good for a smaller share and is a good one to use underneath here.
Race 2
(7) NORTHERN GLITZ had a nice start over the track and may have won if she started her move earlier. She can handle these if driven more aggressively. (3) CLUB BELVEDERE finished just behind the choice after setting the pace now she picks up a catch driver. She should be the main threat. (5) JAYPORT DELILAH qualified fast enough to contend and she could crash the exotics at a price. (1) P L LOUIGI woke up with a better effort last time despite breaking in the lane. He’s another to consider using underneath.
Race 3
(2) MIDNIGHT MATT was game in defeat last time and he may have slowed the pace too much in the middle stages to his own detriment. He gets top call here. (9) BRUNO FROM MARS tried to close into the fastest quarter of the race which turned out to be mission impossible. His price will be good here and he is a viable threat. (3) BOOTS N BRIAN made a big move that he couldn’t sustain. My gut tells me he is best used underneath here. (5) REAL WILLEY will be closing from the back as usual and he can pick up some scraps by passing a few of these.
Race 4
(6) AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER was game but simply second-best last week. He looks solid here. (5) LIVELY LARRY – a $23K London Select sale buy – is a 1/2-brother to the good local mare Much Ado. There could be more under the hood than what he showed in the snow in his lone qualifier; using. (7) SPORTS CHARM improved to take his first board finish and he should get at least a good piece here. (3) TALBOTCREEK DUKE had an eventful Mohawk debut. He’s capable of better and can hit the ticket this time.
Race 5
(7) LARRYS PETROCK flew home last week but couldn’t catch an old nemesis. He should get a great setup for his potent late kick here. (6) D M JOHNWICK is another stout closer who should be firing in the lane here; using. (10) BEACHIN LINDY is back in the excellent form that he displayed last winter, but there is other early speed in here that could rough him up. I’ll play to beat him this time. (3) FASHIONONTHEBEACH ships in and goes for connections that can never be discounted.
Race 6
(1) PENNANT SEELSTER was motoring down the lane last week, but the winner was already long gone. He should get away better this time; top call. (6) ESA finished just behind the choice in another good effort and he should be right there racing on or near the lead. (3) ENCARNACION always looked the winner last time and although these are tougher, he’s in the mix. (2) JULA GRAND CREW has already won in this class and while he’s erratic, he is capable when he behaves.
Race 7
(4) WEB CAM gets driver Roy back shipping back to Mohawk here and he should be prominent throughout, plus he may offer a square price in this spot. (5) REIKI gets away from the white-hot A Boy Named Suuzz and drops in class, too. Don’t underestimate him in this spot. (2) DARCEE N hasn’t been able to snap a lengthy losing streak but he has raced much better in the lower claiming ranks and he will pop one of these weeks. (3) PRINCE GIOVANNI is in the mix every week, but a smaller share seems likely for him
Race 8
(7) HEY LIVVY trotted a 27 1/5 opening 1/4 and a 27-flat kicker while winning racing in the snow last week. That tremendous effort makes her a Pick 4 single here. (8) STORMONT ROYALTY takes slices in close to half of her races and she seems likely to complete this exacta. (3) WIKI HANOVER is another who always shares who should hit the board again. (2) GRADABRA is worth a look exiting the Harvest series where she performed well.
Race 9
I’ll take a stab here on (6) HASHTAG HUGHIE, strictly on the barn change angle. (9) LAUTNER SEELSTER came out of nowhere last week with a huge late burst in the snow and off that effort, he’s hard to leave out. (5) REAL WICKED was in a bad spot last week, first-up in the snow wasn’t ideal. He can bounce back here. (1) CHEYENNE FORD disappointed as choice, but he’s always in the mix and he can’t be counted out at this level.
Race 10
(2) SUPERSPORT was 0 for 19 this year four starts ago. Since then he has clicked for three impressive wins in four tries and he doesn’t look overmatched here; top call. (1) BACKYARD SWAGGER was first up on a night where that was a bad spot. He can bounce back here. (9) LYONS BEACHBOY should be on or near the early lead and he can stick around for a slice. (10) SHRIMP AND GRITS steps up off a solid maiden win and he should off a big price here; consider for exotics. (5) LEADER TONIGHT exits an insanely fast mile considering the class and weather conditions. He can take a share vs. these.