Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 11/21 Analysis

Meet Stats – 46 – 136 / $258.90 (-$13.10)

Best Bets – 6 – 13 / $22.80 (- $3.20)

Spot Plays – 3 – 13/ $29.20 (+$3.20)

Best Bet – R FIRST CLASS – (9TH)

Spot Play – GOING FAST – (4TH)

Pick 5 – 1,5,8/2,6/6,7/1,2,9/2,3,9 = $21.60

Early Pick 4 – 1,2,9/2,3,9/5,7,9/2,5 = $54

Late Pick 4 – 2,5/2,6,7/2,6/3,6 = $24

Race 1 – 5YO and Younger NW2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT $50K GTD Pick 5

(8) CAREY ON was aggressively handled by hot teamster Young last week and he responded with a win. He faces many of the same rivals here and he can repeat. (1) TROTSKYIST took his seventh second-place finish of the year in the same race and he is a contender again. (5) HEAVENSDOOR HANOVER raced well for Roy in two straight then he broke last time with Filion driving. Roy returns here and I’ll use this gelding in the Pick 5. (3) GO TIME often finishes on the edges and he can round out the Tri or Super.

Race 2 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW1 or $9,600 LT

(6) ADMITYOUREWRONG was second best to a repeat winner last week and she looks best here; top call. (2) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL broke while racing on a “good track” and making a move for the front. Her race two starts back puts her right there with these; using. (1) SHAD has raced well at Flamboro but she would need to shave a few seconds off to win this; using underneath. (8) WAR DIAMOND raced okay to finish on the fringes in her Mohawk Park debut and she can pass a few of these to take a small share.

Race 3 – 4YO and Younger NW1 or $8,500 LT

(7) P C JUSTA DREAM exits the Harvest series where she faced tougher and she has a good chance to break her maiden here. (6) IMABAJANMAIDEN also comes out of that series and she is likely to improve here; using. (4) JANES ANGEL comes in off a nice win at Flamboro when facing easier. She can contend for at least a slice. (5) HOYA SAXA is worth a look on debut in a race that isn’t that tough.

Race 4 – 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT – $50K GTD Pick 4

(2) GOING FAST raced well only to be picked off at the wire by the chalk who rode his pocket the entire mile. He should be tough in here. (9) BIG MACHIN JIM took a ton of action, but he was too far back to threaten the winner. He can contend here but he may face a similar scenario starting from the worst post in this spot. (1) EATAAMSBETTERSHARK raced better last week bouncing back from a poor performance the week before. He is worth a look for the Pick 5. (3) EATAAMS SPORTSBABY comes in from Flamboro with good form and he can contend from close range.

Race 5 – CLM $15,000 for NW $50,000 LT

(2) MOSSIES ART moves inside coming off a decent try when returning from the shelf and he gets the nod vs. these. (9) CHIK MAGUIRE was the winner of that race but he moves to the worst post here now. He can win this but demand a price. (3) BETTORS PARLAY’s race three starts back would win this but he would need a big rebound here. He should improve coming out of the Autumn series to face easier. (1) DON’T DILLY DALLY should be in the hunt for a share starting from the inside here.

Race 6 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000

(9) ESQUIRE raced large off the claim to beat some of these last week and he gets the call to repeat despite his post. (7) SEVERUS HANOVER was third in that race and he goes for a new barn here after getting claimed, and he is in with a shot here. (5) ALPHA SEELSTER – 2nd in the same race – is the other logical contender in a race that seemingly has only three options. (3) EXPLOSIVE JET can close for another small slice here.

Race 7 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000 – Pick 4

(5) WESTERN PHIL drops into a claimer shipping in to Mohawk Park and he picks up driver Henry. Expect an aggressive try. (2) DOVUTO HANOVER is always a threat at this level and the horse that beat him last time won here on Monday night; using. (9) ST LADS CAPTAIN raced great last week but he could be trying to pass them all again here after starting from the worst post; your call. (1) VALIDUS DEO faces better looking for a third straight win; using on the bottom.

Race 8 – 4YO and Younger NW2 and $26,000 LT

(6) POGEY BEACH returned from a break in great form and he is the one to beat shooting for his third straight win here; top call. (7) EXCAVATOR gives the Auciello barn a solid 1-2 punch here and I’ll use him in this late Pick 4 making his first start out of this barn, which is a potent angle. (2) CASEYS DRAGON should be closer here early and that gives him a decent chance to upset. (8) RAYS KREDIT was raced aggressively last week and he is worth a look for the exotics here.

Race 9 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

(2) R FIRST CLASS got hung out last week now he gets to drop to the lowest class after missing a check there. He isn’t the most reliable sort, but he does look best vs. these. (6) TIKI TAKA should start well from this post and he is the one I’ll use an alternative to the choice in this Pick 4. (5) CAULFIELD had a nice late burst at the end of a 1 3/8 miles race but that was his 4th time in a row finishing 4th. I’ll use him underneath. (7) MUSICAL SPELL is another who takes frequent smaller shares racing at this level and he is one on to consider using on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 10 – CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

(3) WOO SHARK raced well here on Monday night on a wet track and he comes right back in three days and draws well; top call. (6) OH K MAN is sharp as a tack right now and he is a must-use in this Pick 4 for me. (7) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP has improving form and he was claimed by a barn that has been making frequent acquisitions lately; using underneath. (10) MYSTIC MESSENGER should be closing for a small slice again. (2) MYBROTHERGEORGE is another closer who should land somewhere in this High-5.