Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 11/15 Analysis
Best Bet: D M JOHNWICK (7th)
Spot Play: REAL WICKED (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,8/3,5,7/4,5/2,6/3,6,7 = $14.40
EARLY PICK: 2,6/3,6,7/1,2,5,6/5,9 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 5,9/5,7/2,3,5,7/3,5,8 = $48
MEET STATS: 26 - 80 / $160.30 (+$0.30)
BEST BETS: 3 - 8 / $14.50 (-$1.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 8 / $15.10 (-$0.90)
Race 1
(3) DONATO LANE requalified nicely with the addition of trotting hopples and his best effort would take this; slight nod. (8) PENNANT SEELSTER moves in a couple of posts after almost wiring the field from the 10-hole last time; using. (1) STENHOUSE HANOVER is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change. (9) JULA GRAND CRU beat similar last time, but from this post, I'll tab him for a smaller share.
Race 2
(5) ER QUINN gets a barn change, a positive driver change and he adds Lasix here. All those factors can add up to a winning effort vs. these. (7) TOMMY TERROR gutted out a first up win last week and he appears to be one of the main dangers in here. (3) SINGHAMPTON KENNY drops and gets McNair. Sharp improvement is likely coming from him. (8) DARCEE N looked a winner last time and he couldn't close the deal, instead extending his winless streak to 54 straight races. I'll tab him for another small share.
Race 3
(5) WEST RIVER CINDY brings a great record with her from the Maritimes and while she'll have to drop a few seconds here, she may be up to it. (4) HEY LIVVY would probably win this by daylight if she stayed flat, but whether she'll trot or run is the $64,000 question in this race. (8) MAGICS LUCKY CHARM is sure-gaited and consistent. She should be good for at least a small share. (7) SNARKY HANOVER has five wins this year and while she's not impossible in this spot, I prefer to use her underneath.
Race 4
(6) AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER has missed more than a month, but this trainer can have one ready despite missing time and his two wins down east compare favorably here with his opponents' performances; slight nod. (2) HEAD TO THE BEACH just failed last time in a good effort and he gets a better post here; using. (8) MCPAT can improve off his first outing and he should offer a square price. (3) TALBOTCREEK DUKE hasn't missed the board yet and he probably won't get bet much here; consider for exotics.
Race 5
(3) CAPTAIN DRAGON paced two tough trips in a row and was narrowly beaten both times. He's due for some luck. (6) BRUNO FROM MARS chased down some faltering speed late to get up to win but that was a good effort and he figures here right back. (7) MIDNIGHT MATT was hung a long time and he just missed. He's another must-use for me here. (5) MY TEEN IDOL is worth a look for the exotics dropping out of a claimer and picking up McNair.
Race 6
Anything goes here in a race where more will likely run than trot. Perhaps experience counts here; I'll try 0 for 16 (5) SOUTHWIND SPARTAN on top. His recent qualifier is probably good enough to win this if he could repeat it. (6) MISS TABITHA has had a few chances too, but her most recent effort was solid, and she gets a better post here. (2) VENICE and (1) SOMBRE are two more in with a shot here in a dash that should be a Pick 4 spread race.
Race 7
(5) D M JOHNWICK was simply too far back last time, but he powered home with good energy to just miss. He gets top call here. (9) JIMS GREAT should improve sharply exiting the Harvest series; using. (3) BACKYARD SWAGGER can improve with a better trip here; using underneath. (7) RONS EOM destroyed easier to finally break his maiden, but a smaller share may be his ceiling vs. these tougher foes.
Race 8
(5) REAL WICKED raced evenly from post 10 in the slop when stepped up off the claim now he drops back to the claimed level and he should take beating here. (7) BLUE EYED COWBOY had no shot in his past two, but his race three back against better puts him right there vs. this easier company. (6) CHEYENNE FORD won at this level when claimed and he's right back for more. He's another that can win this with a decent trip. (4) HOBOKEN HANOVER can close in the lane to round out the Tri or Super.
Race 9
(2) REGAL MAGICIAN had a useful comeback race and if he gets a slightly quicker pace to chase here, he will be tough. (7) MYSTERY BET is worth a long look on the barn change alone here. (5) MISTER MUSCLE gets an aggressive driver following a big speed try and he should be the one to catch again. (3) MUSICAL SPELL drops to the bottom and he's usually around the money at this level.
Race 10
(5) ROYAL COURTIER raced tough in his first start for Auciello. A slightly better trip gets him a win here. (3) LEGAL POWER moves into Moreau's barn and faces easier shipping in. he should be a major player here. (8) ATLANTIS changed tactics and it paid off with a win. He can contend again here with his improving form. (2) ROCKABILLY CHARM and (1) BETWEEN THE SHEETS are good ones to use underneath in exotic wagers here.