Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 11/14 Analysis

Meet Stats – 32 – 94 / $159.00 (-$29.00)

Best Bets – 3 – 9 / $6.00 (- $13.00)

Spot Plays – 2 – 9 / $6.30 (-$12.70)

Best Bet – OH K MAN – (6TH)

Spot Play – SEVERUS HANOVER – (1ST)

Pick 5 – 5,6,8/2,3,5/2,5,8/6,7,8/10 = $16.20

Early Pick 4 – 6,7,8/10/2,6/4,5,7 = $18

Late Pick 4 – 4,5,7/1,2,4/7,10/5,9 = $36

Race 1 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000 - $50K GTD Pick 5

(8) SEVERUS HANOVER drops to the bottom claiming level here and he gets Roy back for this return to Mohawk Park. An all-out speed try is likely. (5) MISTER MAGIC will get heavily-bet off his blowout win last week, but he is quirky and I’m inclined to try to beat him racing out of a new barn off the fresh claim. (6) ESQUIRE also goes for a new stable here and he can contend with a better trip. (1) AIR GLIDER is capable of landing in the Super if he stays flat this time.

Race 2 – 4YO and Younger NW1 or $7K LT

(5) SUNFIREWINDRAIN raced well in his return from a lengthy break and he should handle this group if he improves just a bit here. (3) KEYSTONE PRESTIGE had a good qualifier leading to this return race and he is in with a decent chance in this short field. (2) LOBEL BRUSIER was one-paced last week and he is turning into a bit of a money burner. Demand a price here. (7) BIG MACHIN JIM had a sharp kicker on the end of his November 7th qualifier. Tab the tote for clues with this one.

Race 3 – CLM $15,000 for NW $50,000 LT

(5) ST LADS CASH was no match for the streaking Gorrrilla last time, but that was an improved effort and he rates highly vs. these. (2) TOMORROWS HEADLINE had a long journey and he finished just behind the choice. He has the look of a contender here. (8) MOSSIES ART goes for Auciello off a barn change here, which is a potent angle. He could be a good price starting from out there. (6) ST LADS CAPTAIN gets a notable driver change and adds Lasix. He could sneak into the Tri or a Super at a big price.

Race 4 –F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 - $50K GTD Pick 4

(8) SHEBESAILIN was expertly handled by Roy last week to get the job done. This is a tougher spot; slight nod over (6) ACEFORTYFOUR PAT, who faces easier here and could go all the way on the front end. (7) AUDI BAYAMA raced well from a tough spot at Flamboro last week and she is worth a look here. (1) SHESONEHOTWRITER gets a barn change. She could improve sharply in this spot.

Race 5 – HARVEST SERIES – FINAL – ONTARIO SIRES 3YO FILLIES

(10) NORTHERN ROYALE tried the overland route last time and she was picked off late. She should be on “go” leaving the gate going for $47K; top call. (7) TOMMI CANU HEARME is another who should get moving earlier here and that gives her a chance to upset. (8) MISS CONGENIALITY raced well for McClure last week and he takes the return drive here; using. (9) CLUB BELEVEDERE sprung a huge upset last week from a better post. I don’t see a repeat coming here, but she can land in the Tri or Super.

Race 6 – CLM HDCP $8,000 to $10,000

(2) OH K MAN has been sharp recently and he has even changed his racing style and is racing more aggressively; top call. (6) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP also has improving form and he merits a look for the Pick 4. (7) MYSTIC MESSENGER comes off a decent try where he was closing late; using underneath. (9) FERRARIFEVER closed nicely last week and he could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 7 – HARVEST SERIES FINAL – ONTARIO SIRED 3YO FILLIES – Pick 4

(4) FREE EXCHANGE got a super drive from McClure to win last week and it looks as though she’ll get a beneficial setup here; top call. (7) LADY DRIVER was game in defeat to the choice and she will be tough right back. (5) ESPRIT DEQUIPE has been dynamite since shipping in and she could go off chalk here. This shapes up to be a great stakes series final. (1) SALUTATION is likely to be coming late to round out the Tri or Super.

Race 8 – CLM HDCP $12,000 TO $15,000

(1) DOVUTO HANOVER was game in defeat to a strong winner last time and he could be sitting on a win now. I’ll give him the nod over (2) BAROSSA BLUE GENES, who adds Lasix for trainer Auciello coming off a dull try. He should bounce back here. (4) PERFECT VISTA was right there at this level two starts back and he should be coming late here again; using. (3) REAL WICKED should sit a good trip and emerge late to take a slice.

Race 9 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,800 L10 – 1 3/8 Miles

(10) OH SO PINE was extremely sharp Monday night and his driver geared him down late with the win in the bag. He has already proven he can handle this extended distance; call to repeat. (7) SMOKE MONKEY gets away from the hot Mister Magic here and he is the main threat. (5) CINDY LYNN is a good one to use in the 3-4 slots in the exotics here with her useful tactical speed. (2) TIKI TAKA races better from inside posts. Give her a price look for the exotics.

Race 10 – 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 LT

(9) CHOCOLATE SWIRL made a huge brush on the turn then gave way, likely due to the rust of being off for 17 months. His price goes up here and he could get a better trip; call to upset. (5) POGEY BEACH produced a super effort coming off a break and he is the one to beat here. (3) GOOD AND SWEET hits the board every race. He’s hard to leave off Tri tickets. (10) CASEYS DRAGON can get a decent trip here leaving from the second tier; using underneath. (7) RAYS KREDIT closed nicely last week. He is another price horse that can hit the ticket.