Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 1/10 Analysis
Best Bet: ARNOLDTHEPAPERBOY (1st)
Spot Play: IMJUSTICKETYBOO (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4/2,7/2,3,4/2,6,9/3,6,7 = $10.80
EARLY PICK: 2,6,9/3,6,7/5,7/6,8,9 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 6,8,9/4,6,7/1/2,4,7,9 = $36
MEET STATS: 110 - 330 / $613.00 (-$47.00)
BEST BETS: 11 - 30 / $40.80 (-$19.20)
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 31 / $81.90 (+$21.90)
Race 1
(4) ARNOLDTHEPAPERBOY was very impressive in the slop at Flamboro on New Year's Eve and off that mile I give him top call here. (1) NORTHERN SPORTSMAN made a couple of moves last time in a decent effort and the post relief here will help. (2) MASTER FASTER is another worth including here off a couple of sharp qualifiers. (3) BROLIC is one that frequently takes slices who should be good for use underneath.
Race 2
(7) SOUTHWIND SPARTAN has had many chances but he's getting closer and his main rival here is (2) FAN THE FLAMES - who is 0 for 20 and keeps finding ways to get picked off late. One of these two should graduate. (4) BRYDOWN HOUSTON rarely gets bet and is always around the money; consider for exotics. (8) MISS TABITHA can come on late here and fill the bottom of the Super.
Race 3
(2) SAUBLE BONNIE roared home in the final 1/4 to graduate at Flamboro the other day and if she can repeat that mile, the rest may be racing for 2nd. (3) AND NOW THERES YOU showed some grit in her debut, but she couldn't fight off an older foe who had 28 races of experience on her and she tired a bit very late. She's a contender here. (4) MORNING HAS BROKEN is another who can improve off her debut that merits a long look. (6) ZARCONIA SEELSTER is one of two winners in the field but my gut tells me she takes a small slice vs. these.
Race 4
(9) CHEYENNE FORD has beaten better than these here last year and he should be formidable, even starting from out there. (6) KWICKY KWANZAA is an obvious contender considering he won here in this class two starts back. (2) ROCKIN RONNIE interests me off the claim here because this race could set up for him; using. (4) BIG IS BETTER ships in from the B tracks in solid form and he should hit the ticket.
Race 5
(7) RAMAS LAST SON gets just what the doctor ordered here in a big class drop and he should control this race. (6) MIGHTY NICKY was good in this class last time, getting beat by a class-dropper. He can be right there vs. these. (3) HANKS TANK adds Lasix which should lead to a better performance; using. (4) STAN THE MAN was sharp in defeat at Flamboro and he should be up near the front throughout and stick for a share.
Race 6
(7) NO HABLO INGLES - a $50K Harrisburg purchase - qualified faster than his rivals race and he should handle these at first asking if he is provided with aggressive handling. (5) JUST WAVE GOODBYE was solid racing from the 10-hole and he looks like the only danger. (2) SMART THINKING can close quickly enough to take a share here. (1) FOX VALLEY RIVIERA should be near the front early and he can stick around to make the Super ticket.
Race 7
(6) LIVELY FREDDIE's recent form isn't inspiring, but it appears trainer Auciello bought him for himself in December, so that's good enough for me to take a stab here. (8) SHOE SHINE - 11-time winner last year - does his best work in claimers and dropping back in for a tag makes him worth a long look here. (9) THINK AGAIN is always dangerous at this level but the post might do him in here. (4) PRINCE GIOVANNI should be closing again for another slice.
Race 8
(6) IMJUSTTICKETYBOO won from the worst post and now moves to one of the best slots. Her price might be okay moving up a class; slight nod. (7) STORMONT ROYALTY drops from non-winners of three and looks obvious on paper, but she's also had several previous chances at this level. (4) SETNTHEWORLDONFIRE is another that drops a level who could hit the ticket in this field. (2) KUIL DEVA makes a living taking small shares and she should be closing for a piece of this purse.
Race 9
(1) SOMEHOWSOMEDAY beats these if he's ready and the barn typically sends them out sharp; top call. (3) AREUKIDDINMECABBIE returned with a big effort and he may simply be faster now. (10) SIZE ME UP has some lines from down south that make him competitive here and he's worth using as a bomb in the Tri and Super. (7) SHRIMP AND GRITS can close for a share in here if he's close enough turning for home.
Race 10
(7) SPEEDLING couldn't reach a well-meant winner at London on New Year's Day, but that was a good effort and Hudon should roll him early vs. these. (9) ALWAYS N THE MONEY is obvious dropping to the bottom, but he may end up being a perfect target for whoever lands in his pocket early and there's a good chance that will be the choice. (2) AVALANCHE HANOVER can sit a good trip here and he may be able to pounce late; using. (4) SENGA NITRO took slices one-third of the time last year. I'll use him underneath. (5) SOUTHWIND MASIMO was sluggish at London and he may get bet here too. I'll play to beat him.