Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 10/3 Analysis

Meet Stats – 309 – 878 / $1,555.50 (-$148.50)
Best Bets – 52 - 85 / $151.90 (-$18.10)
Spot Plays – 26– 85 / $121.50 (- $48.50)
Best Bet – DRESS TO THE NINES – (4TH)
Spot Play – STOLEN ART – (1ST)
Pick 5 – 2,6,10/2,6/2,4,5/3/2,9 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 – 3/2,9/1,4,6,9/7,8,10 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 7,8,10/3,6/9,10/2,10 = $24
Race 1 – CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $91,000 LT – **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(10) STOLEN ART took a new life’s mark in his second start for Montini and he has a big shot here right back despite starting from post 10. (2) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL faces much easier here in a race that has little chance of going as fast as last week’s and he should be in the hunt vs. these. (6) STATE OF PLAY wasn’t far behind the choice and he gets the better draw so he is one I will use in this Pick 5. (7) TOPVILLE CHROME is in solid form and if he gets a lonely lead here, he could go a long way on the front end.
Race 2 – 2YO Fillies
(6) SUSIES LADY gets major post relief here and she faces mostly easier foes. I’ll give her a slight nod over (2) WHOSE BLUES – who has the best form but has missed close to a month’s action. (7) BR SERENA SLAM raced okay coming off a break. She could crash the exotics at a big price here. (8) SVF BLUSHINGBRIDE gets a notable driver switch here; consider using underneath.
Race 3 – F&M CLM $15,000 for NW $62,000 LT
This race should come down to a battle of class droppers and of those I’ll take (4) CAFE SOCIETY on top based on her recent sub-27 kickers. She should wake up here. (5) PAZZA HANOIVER had no shot last time against a very good filly named So Much More, but she rates highly vs. these; using. (2) BLOSSOM ONTHEBEACH also drops in for a tag. She’s the third on I’ll use in this Pick 5. (7) DREAMFAIR ZENFIRE is sure to show speed leaving the gate and she should stick around to take a share.
Race 4 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $27,500 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(3) DRESS TO THE NINES paced two seconds faster than any of these last week. She’s hard to go against but may be 1 to 5 on the board. (2) BETSEA had no shot trying to circle them all last week when passively driver at odds of 3 to 5 at Flamboro. She can rebound here and contend for a share. (4) MONEYMAKEHERSMILE is in solid form and she has been producing good late speed; using underneath. (1) FRISY BEAVER should be coming on late to take another slice.
Race 5 – 2 and 3YO or $7,000 L10
(2) ST LADS BEAT IT had an impossible trip last time, now he moves inside; top call. (9) COPPER took heavy action last week and he was very good. He should be a big threat here again. (1) AETHON was getting bet in many of his races south of the border now he moves into the top local barn and picks up Roy. He can take a share here. (4) WATCH AVE raced okay in his first start over the big track. He can come on late and sneak into the Super here.
Race 6 – 4YO and Younger NW 2 (F&M3) or $20,000 (F&M $25,000) LT
(6) NORTHERN ROYALE comes off a powerful win in this class and she looks good to repeat here. (1) WHILE YOUR UP had speed early and late to just miss and he is the main danger here. (4) CHICA finished just behind the choice two starts back before trying the Grand Circuit; using. (9) TOMMI CANU HEARME could be along late to and in the Super making her third start back and adding Lasix here.
Race 7 – 2 and 3YO Fillies NW1 or $8,700 LT – Pick 4
(8) KENDALLS COUSIN passed some horses late in a very quick mile for the class in wheat was a nice debut effort. She gets the nod here. (10) SOUTHWIND PRIMA was well clear of the choice in second that night, but she draws worst here, and she could be vulnerable at a short price. (7) HIGHLAND SALSA came close to winning in this class three starts back and she should find this easier than the recent Grassroots races she has been trying. Toss her in the Pick 4. (3) BETTORBEASECRET figures to pass some of these late. Consider using on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 8 – 2YO Fillies NW2 or $30,000 LT
(6) MARTINIQUE BEACH was a winner in a similar class two starts back; top call vs. these. (3) KIT had a tough trip last time vs. Grassroots foes. She can be a threat here. (2) MS BRAMPTON BEAST is usually in the hunt and she should be good for a slice here. (4) DREAMADREAMFORME should improve exiting Grassroots company. I’ll toss her in Supers.
Race 9 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(9) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER took a new life’s mark winning at this level two starts back and he should be tough here dropping back to this level. (10) BRANDON HANOVER is in top form and hard to leave out despite leaving from the worst post. (8) WINDSONG NAPOLEON is worth a look for the exotics adding Lasix in this spot. (4) PILLAGE AND BURN takes slices 1/3 of the time and he can be an exotics player here.
Race 10 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(2) PHANTOM SEELSTER should get put into play earlier here leaving from the inside and I’ll give him the nod over (10) REAL SURREAL who signaled readiness in his September 17th qualifier where he kicked home in 26-flat. (5) ARTOFFICIAL FLAVOR drops and he should be heard from at this level; use underneath. (3) OSBORNE SEELSTER raced well for McNair last time and he should get a piece of this, too. (1) JAYDENS PLACE can sit a nice following trip here and crack the Super at a price.