Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 10/18 Analysis

BEST BET – FLY FLY SELENA – 5TH

SPOT PLAY – LYONS BEACHBOY – 10TH

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4,5,8/5/4,7/1,4/5 = $2.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4/5/3,8/1,5,6,7 = $16

LATE PICK 4: 1,5,7/1,10/2,6,7/3,5,10 = $54

MEET STATS: 400 - 1233 / $2,263.90 BEST BETS: 66 - 109 / $232.00

SPOT PLAYS: 36 - 108 / $222.90

Race 1

(8) MANTARIO overcame a shuffle to win last week and he continues to put a good effort out every week; top call. (5) BETTER THAN SOME was right there with the choice on the wire and he merits a long look here. (4) SHADOW OF A DAUT gets tough trips every week it seems. One of these times, he’ll trip-out and win at a price. (9) SHADOW TAIL can pass a few of these late and crash the exotics at a price.

Race 2

(4) ALL WRAPPED UP was exactly that when jogging last week. If he stays flat again, he likely won’t be beat. (1) JMR PINARELLO was coming on nicely at the wire last time. He seems a good bet to complete this exacta. (5) ENCARNACION was used hard early and faded only late. He should hit the ticket in this small field. (6) ESA should go better in his second start back; consider for exotics.

Race 3

(7) COOL CLIFFORD was best of the rest vs. a very tough winner last week. This is a good spot for him to break his maiden. (4) SINFUL was a sharp winner from a worse post than he has tonight. He’s the one the choice will need to chase down. (2) FINGALS WAVE figures to contend if he stays flat this time. (5) COUSIN PETER was far behind the choice last time, but he can fight it out for a smaller share here.

Race 4

(4) DOCS DARLIN paced a strong mile when second to a big chalk last time. She should wire these. (1) MACH THIS DAY has some sneaky good form and moving inside should give her a much better shot here. (6) CRANBERRY BRIE comes in with two sharp wins in a row, but she’d have to be much faster to threaten the top two here. (7) MISS KABANA was just behind the choice last time and she could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 5

(5) FLY FLY SELENA was simply out-trotted by a sharp rival in deep stretch last time, but she still trotted a 28 1/5 kicker. On paper, she’s too much for these. (1) IMF is in great form and she seems the most likely upsetter, if there is to be one. (8) MELANIE G was driven perfectly last time and the strong headwind in the stretch was an advantage for her. I suspect she won’t get a lonely lead this time; smaller share predicted. (6) ALONA finishes on the fringes regularly and that should continue here.

Race 6

(8) PENNANT SEELSTER tried hard but chasing down the leader that built a 12 1/2 length cushion by the top of the stretch was mission impossible. He gets the nod here. (3) GRIMMIE HANOVER could do much better racing near the front here; using at a price. (9) TORCHES PIRATE raced decently twice straight in this class; consider for exotics. (6) VENICE is another who should do better with a quicker start.

Race 7

(7) CARLISIMO got the trip last week, but he powered up to get the job done and he could get a similarly good journey here; slight nod. (5) BETTER THAN CASH was hopelessly out the route and an anticipated better trip here puts him right there on the wire. (1) ROUSSEAU is another who projects to get a better trip that merits a look for the Pick 4s. (6) MILLENIUM SEELSTER stole some easy middle fractions last week. I see a much different pace scenario here; small share predicted.

Race 8

(10) BEHOLDER drops to a level where she could be gone if she clears in the first quarter. (1) MAGICS LUCKY CHARM was rolling late last week but was slowed by a strong headwind. She figures here. (2) WIKI HANOVER figures to get another covered trip and she can come on late for a slice. (3) HOPES SOLO is capable of better, but she is inconsistent and somewhat unpredictable.

Race 9

(7) AMERICAN RISK made up a ton of ground last time, but he was simply too far back. He gets top call here. (2) BOYS TURN took the worst of it, going first up into a back 1/2 that was almost four seconds faster than the opening frame; using. (6) DISMISSAL SLIP looks ready to roll off his recent qualifier and Henry will probably be sending. He’s on my Late Pick 4 ticket. (8) HAL N SAMMY has been racing well and showing improvement. He can better this placing with a trip.

Race 10

(10) LYONS BEACHBOY uncorked a 1:54 2/5 mile in a qualifier for both horses and drivers. It looks like Moreau has him on his toes for a big speed try; top call. (3) STONEBRIDGE SURF is a half-brother to some good ones including $863K earner Art Colony (1:51). There should be more than meets the eye with this guy off that one qualifier. (5) NAGLE has some sneaky good recent form and he could upset here with a trip. (4) RONS EOM figures for another share here, but it’s hard to like him on top at this point. (7) I REFUSE TO LOSE brings some solid form in from Flamboro and he should be able to crack the High-5 ticket.