Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 10/17 Analysis

Meet Stats – 344 – 974 / $1,743.90 (-$152.20)

Best Bets – 59 - 93 / $173.50 (-$14.50)

Spot Plays – 29– 94 / $144.20 (- $43.80)

Best Bet – BEAUMOND HANOVER (8TH)

Spot Play – MISTER MAGIC (2ND)

Pick 5 – 2,3,8,11/4,6,7/7,8,9/1,5/1,3,5 = $43.20

Early Pick 4 – 1,5/1,3,5/3,9,10/5,8 = $36

Late Pick 4 – 1,4,6,7/2,6/5,6,7/1,4 = $48

Race 1 – HARVEST SERIES 1ST Leg – 2YO Colts and Geldings - $50K GTD Pick 5

Wide-open race to kick off tonight’s Pick 5; I’ll side with (11) COMBS HANOVER who had decent late speed in his debut and now moves to what should be a better post. (8) POT STOCK is another who had post 10 for his debut and he can improve here; too. (3) HP MUSCLE DANCER was close in a fast race and he will rightfully take action here. (2) AUSSIE LOVER was nowhere close in the Grassroots Final but he’s capable of better and he should be a big price here.

Race 2 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000

(7) MISTER MAGIC goes for Auciello off the claim in a winnable spot and he should be tough vs. these. (6) ESQUIRE drops back to the level where he won two starts back. He should be more aggressive early here. (4) A J DESTINY also changes barns here and he is worth a look for use in this Pick 5. (2) EXPLOSIVE JET is always a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 3 – CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $96,000 LT

(8) STOLEN ART is sharp as a tack and he gets a better post here after winning from the 10-hole. A three-peat looms. (9) BRANDON HANOVER is also in great form and he is sure to get sent hard by Hudon at the start; using. (7) CROSS MY MIND has improving form and it’s not out of the question that he could win this with the right trip. (10) LEGAL BETTOR drops in for a tag, but his post likely relegates him to a minor placing.

Race 4 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST Leg 2YO Colts and Geldings - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) REMEMBERING SHORTY had two good tighteners for this, both raced from the worst posts. He should improve sharply here. (1) MACPHEUS showed some good late interest in his first start over this track and he should move up here; using. (2) BETTER TAKE IT is capable of better than he showed last time vs. Grassroots foes. He should be in the mix here. (4) FRONTIER CRUISE has 4 wins this year already and he should be the early pacesetter, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

Race 5 – NW $11,000 L5 or NW $24,500 L9 AE: OPT. CLM. $30,000 or NW1 in 2019

(5) BUZZ is in his best form right now and he gets a much better post to work from here; top call. (1) UNDERCOVER STRIKE threw in a clunker from an outer post last time. He can bounce back here starting from the inside. (3) MAJOR MUSCLE figures to get a good trip racing near the front and he is another who could take this contentious dash. (9) FREE WILLY HANOVER is always in contention at this level it seems, but he is more likely to take a smaller share.

Race 6 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST Leg Ont. Sired 2YO Colts and Geldings

(3) SECRETS JUSTICE gets away from powerhouse Lovedbythemasses here and he his main competition is lined up on the far outside. I expect this gelding to leave more aggressively this time. (9) I GOT THE LOOKS is likely unlucky to still be winless. He should be right in the mix here. (10) SIMSALABIM raced decently in Gold company and he’s not out of this despite having the worst post. (5) BIG BLUE FORD should be closing late for a piece of this purse.

Race 7 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10

In this wide-open race to conclude the early Pick 4, I’ll take a swing with (5) MACH CODE, who seems to be coming around to some good form now. (8) CANDID CAMERON figures to show speed on the class drop while making his second start back; using. (3) LINCOLNJAMES moves inside after a decent rallying effort. He can enter contention here. (2) OSBORNE SEELSTER is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 8 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST Leg Ont. Sired 2YO Colts and Geldings

(9) BEAUMOND HANOVER rolled up late last time but the winner was too tough. With no Allywag Hanovers in here, this colt gets the nod. (2) ST LADS BEAT IT was more aggressive last time and he was rewarded. He will be in the hunt again. (1) DONTBLVMEJUSTWATCH should be competitive with this group and he can trip-out and hang around for a share. (3) SUNDOWN KID exits the same race as the choice, and he should be good for a smaller share in this spot.

Race 9 – NW $6,700 L5 or NW $17,000 L10 AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000 – Pick 4

(7) MR CONTESTANT fits well in this class ad he gets a slight nod over (1) WILLYORWONTHE, who figures to improve sharply taking a double dip in class here. (4) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO exits a quick race and the colt that won that dash moved up and won again on Monday night. Consider this one for the late Pick 4. (6) HEY JOCK is quirky in that he tends to drift way out in the stretch, but he does figure to hit the ticket at this level.

Race 10 – CLM $15,000 for NW $47,000 LT

(2) ST LADS CASH and (6) STATE OF PLAY come out of the fastest race and the former got the better trip and won. I’ll use both in this Pick 4 and give a slight nod to the former who should work out another good trip here. (5) MAJOR COMFORT was closest of any of these to the top two last time and he can hit the board here. (3) MACHO POLO should be an early speed presence, but he isn’t likely to get left alone setting the fractions; using underneath.

Race 11 – NW $6,700 L5 or NW $17,000 L10 AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000

(7) ON A SUNNY DAY got a clean line and now she gets to drop several levels. It’s go time for this mare. (5) WHAT A RUSH is capable of better. The horse that won his most recent race stepped up and won again. I’ll use this one in the late Pick 5. (6) VESUVIO BI is capable at this level and he should be well-positioned throughout. He is in with a decent chance here. (8) ODDS ON AMETHYST should be passing some of these late to land in the Super or Tri.

Race 12 – F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $25,000 LT

(1) SHESONEHOTWRITER has the fastest mark in this field and she qualified well for this; slight nod. (4) BETSEA tripped-out to win last time, but she could get another beneficial trip here and she is on my Pick 4 ticket. (8) ALLY ELIZABETH raced tough on the rim last time and she should be in the hunt for at least a share. (2) CASIMIR SWAMP GIRL will need more speed here, but her excellent record should be respected when making exotic bets. (10) MONEYMAKEHERSMILE is usually right there and she will likely take a closing approach; using underneath.