Woodbine Mohawk Park: Thursday 10/10 Analysis

Meet Stats – 327 – 930 / $1,657.90 (-$150.10)
Best Bets – 56 - 90 / $163.70 (-$16.30)
Spot Plays – 28– 90 / $137.70 (- $42.30)
Best Bet – ALLYWAG HANOVER (6TH)
Spot Play – LEGAL BETTOR (7TH)
Pick 5 – 2,6,7/2,4,8/2,4,7/2,6,9/5,8 = $32.40
Early Pick 4 – 2,6,9/5,8/9,10/2,7 - $24
Late Pick 4 – 2,7/2,6,10/3,5,7/2,6,9 = $54
Race 1 – CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $91,000 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(7) BRANDON HANOVER was used hard last time when claimed and he succumbed to pressure late. This should be an easier spot and he gets the nod. (6) SIZE ME UP has been in very tough facing the swift Lyons Pegasus the past two starts and if he is going to wake up, this is the spot. (2) YOUNG DRUNK PUNK will likely take a stalking approach this time and he could roll by them late if the trip shakes out his way. (4) CROSS MY MIND was rolling late last time and he should come on for a share again here.
Race 2 – 2 Year Olds
(8) AWESOMESDABRA gets off post 10 here and away from the iron-tough Lovedbythemasses. He should bounce back in this spot. Will (4) WHOSE BLUES be better this week coming back on 7 days rest? Likely, but what price will you accept? (2) BEADS was a strong maiden winner last time and he’s not out of this. (1) HP MUSCLE DANCER is worth a look off his sharp kickers at Grand River and going for a top trotting barn.
Race 3 – CLM $15,000 for NW $46,000 LT
Horses dropping out of claiming handicaps seem most logical here and of those I’ll side with (4) STATE OF PLAY who has amassed the most wins in this field in 2019. (2) MAJOR COMFORT wasn’t far behind the choice last time and he should be right there in this dash. (7) CUSTOM CUT was excellent last week at Flamboro and he merits a look off that sharp effort. (3) ABRAHAM N is bound to wake up here, but I prefer to use him underneath.
Race 4 – 2 and 3YO NW1 or $7,000 LT - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(9) REMEMBERING SHORTY’s last effort was quite good considering he missed a month and was able to kick home in 26 2/5. Expect more aggression now. (2) SUNSHINE N SHADE raced tough on the rim and he should be a major contender in here; using. (6) ST LAD BEATS IT took a while to get going last time when he was even money. I’ll use him on multi-race tickets here, but I wouldn’t take a short win price. (3) COPPER should take an off-the-pace approach here and that makes him a contender for a share.
Race 5 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
This might be one of the toughest races to handicap that I have seen at Mohawk Park all year. I’ll try (5) IONIA on top. He gets Lasix and aggressive teamster Hudon and his typical style puts him on or near the front early. (8) BANK GUARD has been racing okay at this level and Filion gets a return drive here; using. (7) IRISH THUNDER was sent hard in an amateur drivers race now he gets Jamieson who should put him into play early. He is another in with a chance. (2) RAMAS LAST SON can sit a good trip near the lead and find his way into the Super.
Race 6 – 2YO NW2 or $30,000 LT
(9) ALLYWAG HANOVER has faced Capt Midnight four times in a row now he takes a big class drop here. He is obvious here but has missed close to four weeks, so I’ll also use (10) BEAUMOND HANOVER in this Pick 4. The latter was very impressive beating maidens and he will offer some value here. (2) THE WILD CARD comes off a nice effort and he should be in the mix for the exotics. (3) CENTURY GRIZZLY will likely leave much harder here and he is another one to consider using underneath in this spot.
Race 7 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(2) LEGAL BETTOR gets to drop to the bottom conditioned level for his third start back and I see him rolling by these in the lane. (7) BIG BANG BOOM also plunges in class and he should be the one to catch here. (9) LINCOLNJAMES raced decently in Chicago and at this level he can enter the exotics picture. (8) OLLIESTRIKESFAME is a good price option to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 8 – 4YO And Younger NW1 or $7,000 LT
(2) SVF BLUSHINGBRIDE raced well at big odds last week to just miss. This looks like a good spot for her to break her maiden. (10) COMBS HANOVER looks ready for a good debut try if the intent is there leaving from the outermost post. (6) LINK IN BIO is worth a look on the barn change alone. (1) VILLEFRANCHE AS is another starting for a new barn who could enter the picture here.
Race 9 – CLM HDCP $18,000 to $25,000
(5) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED was a winner last time he raced at this class and he could get the same perfect trip in (7) RACEMUP’s pocket here. I’ll use both in this Pick 4 along with (3) ALLSTAR SEELSTER who rates a long look going for Auciello off the claim. (4) P L IDAHO had an impossible trip last week and he should go better here but I still prefer to use him underneath only.
Race 10 – CLM HDCP $12,000 to $15,000
(6) STELIOS was involved in some big fractions last time and he was the only one that was racing near the front that was still around at the finish. He should get an easier trip here and he gets top call. (9) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER took advantage of a slowing late pace to roll by the choice, but he may not get the same trip here. (2) BAROSSA BLUE CHIP brings great form in from the ‘B’ tracks and he gets Henry to drive. He could get a great trip racing near the front. (8) TOMY TERROR makes his third start for Moreau who has had some success for him in the past; using underneath. (4) MATTS TUITION should pass some of these late to land in the High-5.