Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/8 Analysis
Best Bet: SUSY (3rd)
Spot Play: BIG BANG BOOM (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5,7/1,3,8/7/1,5,7/6,9,10 = $16.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,7/6,9,10/2,6,8/2 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 2,4,6/1,4/5,7/2,3,5 = $36
MEET STATS: 317 - 973 / $1,822.70 BEST BETS: 54 - 87 / $188.70
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 85 / $173.80
Race 1
(7) TUXEDO BAY attracts Tetrick here which could mean a more aggressive approach will be taken at the start. I'll give him the nod in a race where I don't love anything. (2) AMERICAN HUSTLE was chasing speedball Ideal Jet last week and tired a bit from his efforts. There should be a more even pace here which is better for him. (5) ACTING OUT has some lines from Harrah's Philly that put him in contention here and he enters Moreau's barn; using. (4) VELOCITY DRIVEN should close for a piece as he typically does often.
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Race 2
(1) THE ICE DUTCHESS may have found the solution to her breaking issues with the addition of trotting hopples, but, I don't trust her enough to single her, so I'll also use the capable (8) HP TITANIA RUNNER and the improving (3) EVIDENT BEAUTY in the Pick 5. (2) ANGIES LUCKYLADY should take a slice here if she can stay on stride.
Race 3
(7) SUSY was so dominant here last week that she looks like a single vs. this group. (4) SISTERS PROMISE went favored in that race, but the pace worked against her and she had no chance. Still, she'd need to make up a big gap on the choice to win here and the pace and trip probably will work against her again. (8) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL rarely gets respect at the windows despite showing some talent and ability; consider for exotics at a price. (6) GRIMMIE HANOVER finishes fast every week and she's another longshot to consider using underneath.
Race 4
(5) HES A SENSATION went a tough trip making two moves in quick fractions early and he stayed dead game to the wire. I'll take him to repeat in his new barn. (7) AVALANCHE HANOVER was forced to go first up last week, and he held decently, considering. He can win this with a better trip. (1) NICKLE BAG is sure to take all kinds of action off the class drop here and while he is an obvious contender, I'm not sure I'd take odds-on. (6) COOL ROCK will be passing horses down the lane like he usually does, but a smaller share is likely here.
Race 5
(9) SHAMBALLA flashed some of his old kick in his qualifier, flying home in 26 flat, and he gets the younger Zeron to drive here. I'll give him the nod. (10) EASY LOVER HANOVER has to be competitive here dropping and getting McNair back. (6) LINCOLNJAMES was good last week, he just ran out of racetrack late. He's not out of this. (5) IDEAL JET is sure to get challenged earlier here, so we'll see how far he can last.
Race 6
(6) GREEN MANALISHI has trotted several big miles on the rim and Tetrick may decide to take control of this race with him in this spot; top call. (8) HUDSON RIVER was gifted an easy middle 1/2 last week and there was no catching him. The choice will provide a sterner test here. (2) KINGS COUNTY is on a good roll and he's the third one in with a shot here in a race that will likely be decided by trip. (7) SOUTHWIND AVENGER tries hard every week and he could better this placing if there is any mid-race battling.
Race 7
(2) SWANDRE THE GIANT - fresh off being sold for a cool million - steps into deeper water here, but he should be up to it, especially considering the consistent serious late speed he has shown in his miles. (6) GERRY has done little wrong so far and he may be able to pick up a live helmet here and close for second. (3) WHITE TIGER is another colt who has done little wrong who should hit the ticket and make the final of this lucrative event. (8) UNION FORCES gets no favors from the draw, but it wouldn't be a big shock if Zeron worked out a good trip for him, even from out there.
Race 8
Good race here between arch rivals (4) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL and (5) KISSIN IN THE SAND. I'll give a slight nod to the former who will no doubt head to the front off the gate and try to impose her will. I can't see splitting hairs for the Pick 4 though and will use both. (1) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP and (2) SHOWER PLAY will likely fight for the scraps that are left.
Race 9
(2) BIG BANG BOOM figures to get a good trip on the engine or in the pocket here so he gets top call. (7) BURNING MIDNIGHT has faced a steady diet of tough sophomores and this spot is likely easier. He could add some Pick 4 value. (4) ROCK THIS WAY races well often, but he is still stuck on one win. He could take this, but he'd need everything to fall perfectly. (3) FREDDY BEAR is worth a look for the exotics on the barn change.
Race 10
(4) THE DOWNTOWN BUS was the easiest of winners last Saturday and Tetrick comes back for more here; top call. (6) ST LADS NEPTUNE got through too late, but he may not have reached the winner anyway. He's capable if he brings his best race. (2) TORRIN HANOVER keeps getting better each week and he may offer a square price here, too; using. (1) BABES DIG ME faces easier here, but he may not be as good as the choice right now and he will likely get overbet off company lines and because of connections.
Race 11
(4) STAY HUNGRY was expertly driven to win the Messenger, but he was also dead game to hold off a persistent Jimmy Freight. He gets top billing here, but (1) BACKSTREET SHADOW - who is on a major upswing - should provide a stern challenge. (7) LEVIS DAY often adds value to exotic bets and he can close for a slice here. (6) SHARP ACTION MONEY is another who will likely finish on the edges.
Race 12
(5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was game in defeat last week, and I expect him to be more forwardly placed early here. (7) NIRVANA SEELSTER should be on a speed mission here and he's the one to knock off in the lane. (1) TE KAWAU N was game last week, but I don't see him getting the same kind of trip here starting from the inside; small share expected. (4) CONTINUAL HANOVER should be closing again, and he could win it if everything goes his way.
Race 13
(2) LYONS WILLIAM has been racing well out of town and this is a good spot for him. Getting McClure adds to his appeal. (3) PRINT MEDIA couldn't get by a stubborn leader who had switched barns for last week's race. He's right in the mix here. (5) LEVY TAYLORE changes barns and picks up Henry coming off a nice win in Quebec; using. (6) SURF REPORT and (10) UF BETTORS HANOVER are two closers that I'd consider using on the bottom of Supers and High-5's.
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