Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/7 Analysis

Meet Stats – 245 – 699 / $1,274.20 (-$131.20)
Best Bets – 41 – 68 / $121.00 (-$15.00)
Spot Plays – 21 – 68 / $105.80 (- $26.30)
Best Bet – CAPT MIDNIGHT – (10TH)
Spot Play – TALL DRINK HANOVER – (8TH)
Pick 5 – 2,8/2,3,4/4/3,4,7/1,2,3,8 = $14.40
Early Pick 4 – 3,4,7/1,2,3,8/2,4/1,8 = $48
Late Pick 4 – 1,2,4,6/2/3,6/4,5,8 = $24
Race 1 – F&M NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L8 AE: OPT CLM $25,000
(2) WITCH DALI drops to a logical spot here and she should be hard to beat vs. these. (8) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP also drops but starting from out there she could have a tough time of it early; mixed feeling with this one. (5) SHEZAREALDEAL hasn’t been used at all in her past two starts from the 10-hole and she’s worth a look for the exotics here moving to the middle of the gate. (7) FRANSCHOEK made two moves last time in a decent effort. She isn’t impossible here, but she’ll need to work out a trip starting from out there.
Race 2 – F&M NW $25,000 L5 or $175.000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(2) HELLO LOVE has been razor-sharp for a few weeks and she should bring a good price here; call to upset. (3) SANDBETWEENURTOES raced big last week to just miss to a tough mare. She’s the one to beat here. (4) COUSIN MARY races tough every week and she should be in the hunt here. (6) THE JOY LUCK CLUB fits well here and she should take at least a share.
Race 3 – CHAMPLAIN 2YO Fillies
(4) REFLECT WITH ME maybe worked a bit harder than anyone expected she would need to last time to secure the win, but she got the job done and she gets the call to extend her win streak. (3) KARMA SEELSTER was game in defeat but she couldn’t quite reach the choice. A tiny Exacta payoff looms here. (1) KAT can start quickly then secure a good following trip to nab a share. (5) FREE FLYIN TICKET looks next best but I’ll use her only on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 4 – CHAMPLAIN 2YO - GTD $50K Pick 4
(3) CAPTAIN KIRK gets away from his two outstanding stablemates here and he has a great shot of taking a Grand Circuit win. (7) YS MATHIS was impressive roaring off dead cover to win going away last Saturday; using. (4) TATOO ARTIST is improving for a barn that is running hot; beware. (1) EXAMINER HANOVER is capable of better and he may trip out and take a share here.
Race 5 – NW $18,000 L5 or $33,500 L10 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(8) TORRIN HANOVER roared home to just miss his life mark by a tick last week. Facing similar, he gets the call to repeat. (2) ROYAL RENEGADE has been facing tougher and he’s worth a look for multi-race tickets moving inside. (7) BRAVE WORLD was third in a tough race and he can hit the ticket again here. (3) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT is usually dangerous at this level and he gets Drury back here.
Race 6 – CHAMPLAIN – 2yo Fillies
(2) LADY LOU took a shot against all-world Alicorn last time and she stayed game to take second after she was rebuffed. She gets the nod vs. these. (4) ALEXA SKYE couldn’t quite reach up Monday night, but this Grand Circuit race may have been the ultimate goal. Picking up Dunn to drive won’t hurt. (1) TEMAGAMI SEELSTER races well every week and she merit consideration for all slots here. (3) ROSE RUN VANTAGE has also been solid; another chance in a contentious dash.
Race 7 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(8) VESUVIO BI raced okay vs. better and he may get rolled off the gate here with the class drop; slight nod. (1) ALPHA SEELSTER faces easier here and draws inside. He is a contender, but he may get overbet. (5) SETTE DEO looks good here off her last start, but her 0 for 12 record this year leads me to use her underneath. (6) PRESQUILLE should be closing for a smaller share here.
Race 8 – SIMCOE – 3YO Fillies
(4) TALL DRINK HANOVER is on a roll that likely won’t be stopped here, but she’s almost sure to be odds-on. (6) BODICEA has gone many tough – yet fast – miles so far this year and while she appears to be slowing down a bit, she should be the one to catch here. (5) SUNNY DEE is having a great season and she could be sitting in the perfect spot if the top two hook up in a duel here. (1) BETTER SINGLE is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super in this spot.
Race 9 – NW $7,500 L5 or $17,000 L10
(1) PHANTOM SEELSTER takes a big drop here and this is a spot where he should be tough. (4) BRODYS SCRAPPER took a new life’s mark last week and he should be the one to catch here. (6) FOOT SOLDIER chased a very tough winner home last week and he should be respected in this spot. (2) POINTS NORTH stepped up and raced well again. He’s not out of this.
Race 10 – CHAMPLAIN – 2YO
(2) CAPT MIDNIGHT’s toughest opponents have been his stablemates and none of them are in here. He should be very hard to beat at a short price. (5) ALLYWAG HANOVER can go much better here if he can avoid a first-over trip. (6) ANETO was clear in 2nd when racing against perhaps the best rookie pacer on the continent last time; exotics look. (4) ESAI HANOVER can rally late for a small slice.
Race 11 – PREFERRED
(6) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds right now and he gets top billing here. (3) EASY LOVER HANOVER couldn’t chase the choice down last week. Maybe he’ll start his move earlier this time. (1) AMERICAN VIRGIN has a good closing kick on his best day; consider for Tri and Super bets. (4) MIDWAY ISLNAD could trip out racing close to the front here. He could land in the Super at a price.
Race 12 - NW $11,000 L5 or $22,700 L10 or $75,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(4) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP closed a ton of ground last week now he draws much better so he should get put into this race earlier; top call. (5) IDEAL JET was outsprinted early as expected which forced him to come first up. He has a better chance to clear leaving the gate here which makes him a threat. (8) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN made two moves from the 10-hole in a decent effort. Moving in a couple of posts gives him a shot here. (10) TYGA HANOVER fits well here but post position likely relegates him to a minor share. (1) INDIGO ART took a new life’s mark last week, but this is much tougher; small share predicted.