Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/29 Analysis

Best Bet: PRETTY HANDSOME (9th)

Spot Play: NEON MOON (3rd)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,4,7 / 2,5,8 / 2 / 6,9 / 3,4 = $7.20

EARLY PICK 4: 6,9 / 3,4 / 4,8 / 1,3,4,5 = $32

LATE PICK 4: 5 / 1,4,6 / 4,6,8 / 1,5,9 = $27

MEET STATS: 364 - 1124 / $2,072.20 BEST BETS: 60 - 100 / $206.60

SPOT PLAYS: 33 - 98 / $185.90

Race 1

(7) AT WILL has caught fire at the right time and he will be tough to beat if he stays flat here. (2) REBELLIOUS LADY is another who turned her game up leading up to this Grassroots Finals and she’s in with a good shot here. (4) SPLURGE ON ME would be right there if she could duplicate her start two back, but two breaks in her last three races is concerning. (1) PYRRHA can take another small share and round out the Tri or Super.

Race 2

(5) ROYAL ELITE is as good as any here in this competitive Grassroots Final and her price may go up a bit; top call. (8) JUDGE KEN will likely try to bottom these out and sometimes the best place to be in a field of young trotters is on the lead. (2) A ROYAL LINE repelled the choice last time and she’s another obvious contender in a good tilt. (1) PRICELESS RULER is still a maiden, but she should take at least a slice here.

Race 3

(2) NEON MOON simply seems too good for Grassroots foes at the moment and she’ll take beating here. (9) PRINCESS ABIE W has caught fire in her last two starts and she could add some value to the exotics starting from out there. (5) I SHADOW U is better than she looks off her last two lines and last time she raced in a Grassroots race at Flamboro, she was loaded with nowhere to go; consider for exotics. (6) MACHNHOPE should be closing for a smaller share here.

Race 4

(6) CALVIN K paced his back 1/2 in 53 4/5 last time while chasing some big fractions. He could be sitting on a big race here. (9) NICKLE BAG was an easy winner last time he raced this low; using. (5) JINS SHARK is an in-and-outer, but he fits here, and he should be heard from. (4) OSBORNE SEELSTER will be a pace threat at a minimum.

Race 5

(3) FREE EXCHANGE had no shot of catching (4) FREYA SEELSTER last time, but there’s a big post switch here, so I’ll give the former the nod and likely get a higher price than what the latter would pay. Use both in the multis. (5) JESSICAS LEGACY converted a perfect trip at big odds and she isn’t likely to see that same trip here, but she can share. (8) SHADOW SPARKS is in great form and she’s another to consider for the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6

(4) SAY YOU DO is hard to go past here coming off a huge winning effort; top call. (8) JAMMIN JACK looks like the main threat coming off two wins in this company; using. (6) T BARRR was a distant second to the choice but he figures for a share and a board finish. (9) MISTER MAGIC closed well every week it seems, and he should be passing many of these down the lane.

Race 7

(4) CENTURY FARROH is the hot horse in this division and he should be tough to beat here. (3) CHANTING HANOVER has impressed in his last two starts and he should be the late danger to the choice. (5) THE FIRST STEP has a big kick and he is another who can be dangerous if he is close enough turning for home. (1) WAGER ON ME was closing on the choice late last week, but I’ll use him underneath here.

Race 8

(3) ZORGWIJK SOPHIA hasn’t been beaten in Grassroots company in several starts and she gets top billing here. (6) STORMONT CHARLOTTE is very capable when she trots the whole mile; using. (1) HOPES SOLO was well-beaten by the one above last time, but she has done well to overcome gait issues that plagued her early this year. She’s not out of this. (8) MELANIE G has a skein of second-place finishes riding here that is likely to be broken, but she does make sense to use underneath.

Race 9

(5) PRETTY HANDSOME is the hottest horse on the grounds right now and the likelihood of him getting beat here is microscopic. (7) JM JACK OF HEARTS was one of the best in this division earlier this summer. I’ll use him second hoping to add value to the exacta payoff. (2) LUKA SHENKO was a distant second to the choice last time. He can follow along and hit the board again. (6) YACHT SEELSTER could go off second choice here and he is very capable of rounding out a puny exacta.

Race 10

(1) CONTINUAL HANOVER should beat a couple of these off the gate which gives him a chance to upset. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER may have bounced a bit last week after blowing Lazarus away the week before. He’s always a threat. (4) EASY LOVER HANOVER was full value for the win last week and he is hard to toss. (5) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP totally tripped-out to win last week and I’ll play to beat him here.

Race 11

(5) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT got fried early last time and he still gutted out a sub-1:50 mile. He gets top call here in a race where there should be less early action. (7) FINE DIAMOND only wins one of every 15 starts or so, but he was a winner in a similar class two back and he fits well here. (4) MONGOLIAN HERO N could get an honest pace to close into here and he should make the ticket. (2) THE DOWNTOWN BUS likely tunes up for the OSS Superfinal in this spot, so I’m not sure how aggressively he’ll be driven.

Race 12

(1) DUBIOUS CLAIM was trounced facing much better, but he has bounced back before and won off similar miles and he gets to drop here; slight nod. (5) BEYOND DELIGHT should be forwardly placed here which gives him a decent shot vs. this group. (9) HIDDEN DELIGHT closed a big gap late and now returns faster here; using. (7) HES A SENSATION is racing well for team Harris and he should be closing for another share. (8) PAPARAZZI HANOVER turned things around in a hurry, but these are much tougher, and I don’t see him lasting in this spot.