Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/28 Analysis

Meet Stats – 292 – 834 / $1,512.50 (-$155.50)
Best Bets – 49 - 81 / $144.70 (-$17.30)
Spot Plays – 26– 81 / $119.50 (- $42.50)
Best Bet – FAST N FIRST (11TH)
Spot Play – P L MATT (8TH)
Pick 5 – 9,10/1,5,6/3,6,7/2,6/3,5,7 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 2,6/3,5,7/2,5,6,8/8 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 2,3,5/1/4,5/6,7 = $12
Race 1 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS SEMI-FINALS – 3YO Fillies - **$50K GTD PICK 5**
(9) CAMBRIDGE KATE trotted a solid mile without threatening the winner last time and now in this semi-final, she should get more aggressive early; top call. (10) REBELLIOUS LADY has been in the Exacta six straight times after missing the board in her first five races this year. You know McNair is sending her to get position leaving the gate and she’s a top contender here. (8) KASHE is capable of rallying for a share here at a price. (5) WARAWEE ULTRA is always a good one to use in the 2-3-4 slots of the exotics it seems.
Race 2 – NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10
(6) P L JACKSON took a shuffle in the middle of a hotly contested race last time and he gets to take a class drop now to a spot where he should be formidable. (1) ELLIS PARK smoked around the track last week, but he was set back for interference that prevented the pocket-sitter from going by late in the mile. I wonder if that race may have taken something out of him. (5) DRAGON STRIKER comes off a solid try where he made two moves; using. (7) AMERICAN VIRGIN should be passing some of these late to take a share.
Race 3 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GRASSROOTS SEMI-FINALS – 3YO Colts and Geldings
(3) JUDGE KEN has hit his best stride recently and he could get the jump on (7) SOUTHWIND FROST here. I’ll use both colts in the Pick 5, though. (6) LIFETIME ROYALTY is capable of much better than he showed last time and he is a possible upsetter if he gets put into play earlier. (1) WINDSONG PIONEER should get a good following trip here and land in the Super.
Race 4 – NW $22,000 l5 or $33,500 L10 AE OPT CLM $55,000 AE: 3YO **$50K PICK 4**
(2) YACHT SEELSTER raced decently in the top class and he should be tough in here starting from the inside. (6) CASIMIR RICHIE P – the other class dropper – should get an aggressive steer from Filion here and that makes him a main contender. (7) BRONX SEELSTER is likely good enough to handle these elders, but the OSS Finals are coming and that is likely the main goal for him. Proceed with caution here. (1) BRAVE WORLD races well for Roy and he should get a piece of this.
Race 5 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES SEMI-FINALS – 3YO Colts and Geldings
(7) SUGARTOWN adds Lasix here and he has been right there in every Grassroots race so far this year. He could pop at a price this time. (5) DREAMFAIR MOXY and (3) SPORTSLINE have both been outstanding in Grassroots action. It makes sense to price shop in this contentious semi-final. (6) CARLISIMO can come on late and crash the exotics at a price.
Race 6 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS SEMI FINALS – 3YO Fillies
(6) HALO ITS ME can beat this group but she needs to stay on the track the whole mile. (5) LEFKADA is in great form and she should pose a strong challenge for Team Wray. (8) SPLURGE ON ME won easily last time despite missing three weeks between starts. She can’t be taken lightly. (2) PETRO HALL has improved with Roy driving and she wouldn’t be a complete shocker if she were to win this – another contentious dash in a card full of them.
Race 7 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS SEMI-FINALS –3YO Fillies
(8) SWIFT ALLY has been on fire and she looks like one of the more probable winners on this tough card. (9) SPRINGBRIDGEVISION is capable of a huge late brush but she needs to be in range to capitalize and post 9 may be tough for her. (4) TWIN B TIPSTER was a good second to the choice last time; using underneath. (10) PREMIER CABERNET is in great form, but she gets mired in the worst starting slot here; for a small share only.
Race 8 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES SEMI FINALS – 3YO Colt and Geldings
This race seems to be a great spot for (1) P L MATT to come late and pick up the pieces and he gets a slight nod over (4) GOLD EDITION, who has improving from at the right time for this semi-final. (3) WINGS OF SPEED was a sharp Grassroots winner last time and it’s hard to leave out any sharp horse sent out from this barn. (5) ENCARNACION is better than he shows in his recent starts and he isn’t without a shot here.
Race 9 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS SEMI-FINALS – 3YO Fillies
(6) SO MUCH MORE comes out of a track-record race at Flamboro and she has to be formidable facing Grassroots foes here. (7) SAULSBROOK JESSIE was razor-sharp last week and if there is one that can upset the choice, it’s likely her. (1) CHARMBO BRIE can pass many of these and she is a good one to use underneath here. (2) MANHATTAN NIGHT is another solid closer who should be in the mix here.
Race 10 – NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 – Pick 4
(5) INDIGO ART chased a wild pace and hung in there well in an unusually fast mile for the class last week. He could get a setup and roll by these late. (3) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP is sharp as seen by the way he set big fractions and kept going last time; using. (2) AMERICAN HUSTLE fits this class well and he should be closing in the lane. He is another that could win this contentious race. (7) BROOKLETSJUSTIFIED should be part of the early pace but he is likely to hang around for a smaller share only.
Race 11 – ONTARIO GRASSROOTS SEMI-FINALS – 3YO Colts and Geldings
FAST N FIRST will be 1 to 9 here dropping into the Grassroots after finishing 2nd in the final of The Little Brown Jug. Enough said. (4) OK KUDO finally draws a good post and he could make it into the Exacta at a price here. (3) BALDER SON has rounded back into good form; using underneath. (6) THE REGULATOR frequently outruns his odds. I’ll use him on the bottom of Tris and Supers here.
Race 12 - NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $132,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $40,000
(4) TRACEUR HANOVER drops to face a group that he should handle, and I expect he will be sent right down the road here. (5) MIDWAY ISLAND is another who drops from the top class that should improve here and he could upset the choice if he trips out. (2) NICKLE BAG was relentless last time and got up in the last stride. He is too sharp to ignore, but this is a tougher task. (1) BETTOR OPS N should be passing some of these late to take a slice.
Race 13 – NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10 AE: NW $1,750 L4
(7) DRACHAN HANOVER drops out of a very fast race and he draws slightly better. Expect an aggressive try here. (6) CINNABAR DRAGON also should get put into this race early on the class drop and he is a threat to lead all the way. (4) LONE WOLF TERROR is a one-trick pony who needs a setup and I see him coming on for a smaller share here. (2) BIT OF LUCK has taken slices in almost 1/3 of his starts this year. I’ll use him on the bottom here. (8) CLASSIC PRO is worth a look coming off the shelf and adding Lasix for this.