Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/22 Analysis
Best Bet: CAVIART ALLY (7th)
Spot Play: SHAMBALLA (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,8/2/2,6/1,3/4 = $1.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3/4/3,7,9/5 = $6
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4/1,6,7/2,3/2,4 = $36
MEET STATS: 346 - 1066 / $1,999.50 BEST BETS: 55 - 95 / $191.10
SPOT PLAYS: 31 - 93 / $177.40
Race 1
(8) LEVIS DAY paced too big of a mile to lose last week and he is so sharp right now that he should be hard to beat in here. (5) GRANTMEAWISH comes off a solid win in the slop, perhaps aided by a closer's bias, but he is a contender nonetheless. (6) SCOUTS REPORT has some decent recent form and he will likely get put into action early by Henry; consider for exotics. (3) FATHER OF THE YEAR raced well in his first local start, but these are tougher; small share predicted.
Race 2
(2) CRUISE CAPTAIN couldn't go with a couple of the best ones last week, but he looks best here and should control things. (5) HESIMAN PLAYER was in great form prior to his Metro elimination start and he can bounce back here with a good effort. (1) TWIN B JAYS should be able to use his post position to follow along and take a share. (6) FABRICE HANOVER picks up Miller here which adds to his appeal, but a smaller share seems likely for him.
Race 3
(2) LAY LADY LAY takes a big drop, and this is a field that she should beat. (6) TWENTY THREE RED also lands in a better spot and she'll probably get put into this race earlier. (5) JET TO THE BEACH raced out of her skin at 59/1 last week and if she can repeat that effort she should hit the ticket here. (3) HOT SPOT HANOVER is typically solid at this level and she merits consideration for use underneath.
Race 4
(1) BIG BANG BOOM has recaptured his best form and he usually stays sharp for a few starts; top call. (3) COOL ROCK changed tactics last time and took a new life's mark racing on the lead. I'll use him in the multis here. (4) TUXEDO BAY is better than his last two miles would suggest and from a better post he can contend at a price here. (9) SHARP ACTION MONEY is a good sophomore show could come late for a slice here while staying sharp for a future stakes engagement.
Race 5
(4) TALL DRINK HANOVER was phenomenal last week in her elimination and she should be very tough to beat here. (3) IDEATION HANOVER got the trip last week, but with the progress she has shown, she's a contender regardless. (2) PRESCIENT BEAUTY was no match for the choice last week, but she has been consistent all year and she should be on the board when they post the prices for this race. (7) SYLPH HANOVER grinded out a second-place finish last week and she's a contender to get a big piece of this.
Race 6
(3) HUMBOLDT gets the call to upset here after chasing Nirvana Seelster around the track in a 1:48 1/5 mile last week. (7) SINTRA is the obvious class of the field and the one to beat, but with his recent form, would you take odds-on here? (9) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT should be competitive here and he can add some spice to the exotic payouts. (2) TRACEUR HANOVER figures to close for a smaller share again.
Race 7
If (5) CAVIART ALLY repeats the mile she paced last week, all of these are racing for second. (7) FROST DAMAGE BLUES flew home last week to no avail, but she could crash the exotics at a price here if chasing a quicker pace. (2) TEQUILA MONDAY is always a threat racing on or near the lead; using underneath. (10) PURE COUNTRY is obviously classy and fast enough but post 10 likely dooms her to a smaller share here.
Race 8
(2) SHAMBALLA was absolutely flying at the wire last week and he just ran out of racetrack. Maybe the old Shamballa is on his way back. I'll give him the nod here. (7) BACKSTREET SHADOW has excelled since joining Moreau's barn, and he is an obvious contender on paper here but keep in mind he is in with elders and he is also prepping for the $250K OSS Superfinal here, so he doesn't have to win this. (4) SHADES OF BAY gets a better post to work from here and he could be heard from at a price. (3) AMERICAN HUSTLE is in solid form and is a good one to use underneath.
Race 9
To my eye, (3) STAG PARTY was the more impressive elimination winner and I'll give him the edge over (4) CAPTAIN AHAB in this Metro Pace Final. (2) SEMI TOUGH raced very well from the worst post last week and he should be afforded an upset chance here. (10) DE LOS CIELOS DEO is obviously one of the best colts and he went a very big trip last week, but he draws an even worse post here and he may end up fighting for some scraps from out there.
Race 10
(7) SANDBETWEENURTOES returned to her best form last week and she comes back in seven days this time, so she could be even sharper. I'll give her a slight nod over dynamic sophomore (6) KISSIN IN THE SAND, who obviously possesses the speed and class to go with her elders here. (1) WITCH DALI is hard to leave out having won four of the last five Preferreds. (2) OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP can sit a trip and make a late move again for a slice.
Race 11
(3) NIRVANA SEELSTER found his 'A' game last week and didn't give Lazarus a chance. If he repeats that mile here, his opponents are racing for second. (2) DR J HANOVER is always tough here in this class and he may ride the choice's pocket all the way then pounce late. (7) CONTINUAL HANOVER flies home every week. He can close late for a share. (1) VELOCITY DRIVEN is another who can beat a couple here and complete the Super.
Race 12
(2) JINS SHARK drops, and he stands a good chance to pop vs. these. (4) PRINT MEDIA should lay closer to the front here which gives him a chance to upset the choice. (7) LYONS WILLIAM has had a couple of rough trips since shipping here, but he may not get an easier one here; small share predicted. (9) ALWAYS N THE MONEY is another class-dropper who merits a look in this spot. (3) ITS JUST TOO MUCH drops and moves inside and he should be able to crack the High-5, at least.
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