Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/21 Analysis

Meet Stats – 281 – 792 / $1,463.90 (-$117.70)
Best Bets – 47 – 77 / $142.40 (-$13.60)
Spot Plays – 24– 77 / $116.10 (- $34.00)
Best Bet - BETTER UP (1st)
Spot Play - HELLO LOVE (4th)
Pick 5: 3/1,2,6/6,8/2,8/2,4,5 = $7.20
Early Pick 4: 2,8/2,4,5/4,5/1,2,8 - $36
Late Pick 4: 3,4,9/7,9/2,4,7/1,2 = $36
Race 1 - 4YO and Younger NW3 or $27,000 LT - **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(3) BETTER UP should enjoy getting away from the best sophomore colt pacer in the country here as he has been facing him in virtually every race. This is major class relief and he should handle these. Similarly, (2) SPORTS OBSESSION has faced the top rookie pacer the past couple of starts and he should improve here, but, he does face elders. (6) CORTEZ THE KILLER is a good one to use underneath here and he will likely get overlooked at the windows. (9) OK KUDO is capable of a nice closing effort but he draws poorly again; for the bottom of Supers.
Race 2 - NW $11,800 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(2) AMERICAN HUSTLE drops and moves inside. Expect an aggressive effort here. (1) EAST END raced tough on the engine last week only to be picked off very late by two that sat inside following trips most of the way; using. (6) FANCOURT was no match for an unyielding leader last week but he remains a viable contender in this spot. (5) DRAGON TIME also comes off a sharp effort and he isn't impossible in this spot either, but I prefer to use him underneath with so many contenders lined up to his inside.
Race 3 - NW $3,000 L5 or $8,600 L10 AE: NW of 1 in 2019
(6) PHIL THE THRILL drops and gets Gingras plus one of the best posts. He should be tough in here but he will need to deal with the other class-dropper (8) PHANTOM SEELSTER who will no doubt be winging early. I'll use both in the Pick 5. (2) ST LADS FLIRT draws much better here and he is worth a look for the exotics. (3) COOL ROCK is being raced more aggressively now and that gives him a chance to hit the ticket here.
Race 4 - F&M NW $15,500 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW 7 or $110,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000 - **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(2) HELLO LOVE has been sharp for a while but she's been facing some top mares in tough spots. Dropping and moving inside should be the recipe for a win here. (8) COUSIN MARY is the other class-dropper in here and she is sure to be aggressively handled; using. (1) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE has responded well to the driver change to Christoforou, but this is a much tougher assignment and I prefer to use her underneath here. (3) SUNDAY AFTERNOON is always in the mix racing close up and she could provide some value to Tri and Super bets here.
Race 5 - SHES A GREAT LADY FINAL - 2YO FILLIES
(4) LYONS SENTINEL was ultra-impressive last week and she gets the nod here over the other sharp elimination winner (5) ALICORN, who has also been super in most of her starts. This should be a great race. (2) REFLECT WITH ME couldn't handle the choice last time, but she has done little wrong all year and it wouldn't be a big shock if she turned the tables here. (6) JK FIRST LADY looks next best and you can never count Gingras out in races like these but I'll use this filly on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 6 - NW $16,000 L5 or $33,500 L10 or $135,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(4) PEDRO HANOVER was live but just too far back last week. From an improved post, he has a much better chance here. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was razor-sharp in a victory that was never in doubt and he's on my Pick 5 ticket here. (10) MAKE SOME LUCK could be the best horse in here but post 10 is no bargain and he may have a tough time of it early; your call. (8) TORRIN HANOVER should be passing some of these late to take a share.
Race 7 - MILTON FINAL - FILLIES and MARES 3YO and Older
This race was blown wide-open with the scratch of Shartin N and I'll go to (1) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL who couldn't have been more impressive in her two recent wins here. (8) CAVIART ALLY couldn't seal the deal last time with Shartin not there but she still is obviously very dangerous; using. (2) KISSIN IN THE SAND was no match for the choice last time, but that race likely wasn't the goal, either. She isn't out of this. (4) BETTORS UP knocked off Caviart Ally last time; she should get a piece of this.
Race 8 - NW $8,100 L5 or $16,000 L10
(8) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT should be very tough racing in this class and Drury will likely look to blast and last on the engine. (2) AMERICAN VIRGIN should also enjoy class relief here and he should be closer early; Exacta factor. (1) BIG MACH N impressed in his first local start at Flamboro but these are tougher. I'll use him on the bottom in this spot. (4) ROCK THIS WAY has been closing well recently and he could make it onto the Tri or Super with a late surge.
Race 9 - METRO FINAL - 2YO Pacers
(4) TALL DARK STRANGER took a while to get into high gear last week, but once he did, he was relentless. He gets a slight nod in what should be a very competitive Metro Pace renewal. (3) CAPT MIDNIGHT obviously won't get a 57-flat opening 1/2 here, but he has been excellent all year long and he is big threat here. (9) PAPI ROB HANOVER was unlucky with the post draw, but he was dead game last week and I couldn't argue with anyone that landed on him to upset. (1) YS MATHIS has caught fire recently and he really had no shot last week the way the race played out. You know he will be coming late.
Race 10 - F&M 5YO and Younger NW4 or $65,000 LT
This race seems to set up for (9) EASY LOVER HANOVER again but he'll need to float and get position early. Slight nod and demand a price. (7) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is always the threat to lead all the way but he is likely to get hooked early again which could soften him up. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER should be in striking position all the way here and he's another option for this late Pick 4. (2) YACHT SEELSTER is in great form but this is a big jump up. Consider using him on the bottom.
Race 11 - 5YO and Younger NW3 or $55,000 LT - AE: GRASSROOTS STARTERS in 2019
(2) HERVEY HANOVER has two wins in a row in this class and he looked good doing it both times; a threepeat looms. (4) FIXED IDEA has been visibly motoring at the end of recent starts and one of these times he will mow them all down; maybe tonight? (7) DREAMFAIR MOXY was dead-game in defeat last week but he couldn't hold off an undefeated rival. He is useable here. (5) HP NAPOLEON is in solid form and he rarely misses the top three; exotics factor.
Race 12 - NW $5,000 L5 or $11,500 L10
(1) ROYAL RENEGADE takes a class drive here and he will likely look to control this race on the front end. (2) SCOUTS REPORT drops from the same class level as the choice and he should be the main danger. (3) TYGA HANOVER should be much closer early starting from the inside this time and he's the third one that I'll use in the late Pick 4 cash leg. (8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP fits well in this class and he should het a good piece of this. (5) MAJOR HILL should get position early and stick around for a slice.