Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/15 Analysis
Best Bet: GREEN MANALISHI S (5th)
Spot Play: MET’S HALL (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,6,9/5,8/3,4/1,2,6,7,9/3 = $12
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,6,7,9/3/1,2,4,5/2 = $20
LATE PICK 4: 2,6/3/4,6,7/1,4,6,8 = $24
MEET STATS: 332 - 1021 / $1,911.40 BEST BETS: 55 - 91 / $191.10
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 89 / $173.80
Race 1
(9) SEMI TOUGH appears to have enough speed to overcome the worst post and his price should be good here; slight nod in the opener of a great card. (6) STAG PARTY may have shown a bit of a chink in his armour last start and while he is an obvious contender on paper, I'm not willing to take a short price on him. (2) CRUISE CAPTAIN rallied well to break his maiden in a Grand Circuit race and he is coming around at the right time; using. (3) SHAKE THAT HOUSE steps up off two sharp wins and he has some longshot potential here.
Race 2
No one has come closer than 3/4 of a length to (5) CAPTAIN AHAB at the finish so far and we likely haven't seen his best race yet; top call. (8) DE LOS CIELOS DEO went a big trip in defeat when suffering his only loss last time and he should be a big threat here. (7) CAPTAIN CRUNCH was no match for the choice last time and he figures to take another small share here. (6) BETTER UP chased the choice home in an improved effort and he could hit the exotics at a price here.
Race 3
(4) SISTERS PROMISE was driven more aggressively last week, and she responded with a big effort. I'll stick with her here in a spot where she may be third choice. (3) THE ICE DUTCHESS was much better with trotting hopples on and she's the one to beat. (2) SUSY had no answer for the choice's first-over assault, but she's not out of this. (5) EVIDENT BEAUTY has been flying home in her past two starts and she has some price appeal here.
Race 4
(9) EASY LOVER HANOVER kept coming despite enduring a tough trip last week. Coming back in seven days here, he should be tough. (2) PHYSICALLYINCLINED moves inside and he may be able to work out a winning trip from there; using. (6) ACTING OUT shipped in ready to play and he's another I'll use in what looks like a multi-race spread leg to me. (7) ASAP HANOVER comes off a new life's mark and he's another who can win this with the right trip.
Race 5
(3) GREEN MANALISHI S has raced big in every start to date and he's the one to knock off here. (4) UNION FORCES paid a crazy price last week now he moves inside. The price drops, but he's a threat. (7) SWANDRE THE GIANT failed to convert as the big chalk in his first start for Takter last week and he has some work to do to get to the choice; using underneath. (1) WHITE TIGER is an honest colt who tries hard every week. He could better this placing if there is some battling up front.
Race 6
(1) MONEY SHOT HANOVER ships in off a sharp first-up win and she picks up Tetrick; slight nod. (4) SYLPH HANOVER also brings an impressive first up win to town and she's another who is in with a big shot here. (2) TREACHEROUS REIGN has been right in every race and her excellent tactical speed makes her a contender here. (5) QUEEN OF THE PRIDE should be a speed threat at a minimum here.
Race 7
(2) MET'S HALL has developed into one of the top sophomore pacing colts and his Simcoe win was impressive; call to repeat. (8) FIFTYDALLARBILL is as consistent as they come, and he rates highly here despite exiting sires stakes. (10) CRYSTAL FASHION is having a great season, but the 10-hole can be the great equalizer at this track; I'll use underneath. (6) ALARM DETECTOR had a rough trip in the Simcoe and he could offer some value for the exotics here.
Race 8
(4) WARAWEE UBEAUT will likely look to control things here and quite often in eliminations breathers can be taken; top call. (2) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP keeps getting better it seems and she could trip out in the choice's pocket here; using. (1) ODDS ON ST LUCIE was in a tough spot last time and she has a better shot here starting from the inside. (5) TALL DRINK HANOVER never misses the board and she should provide a challenge racing from close range here.
Race 9
(7) LAZARUS N should take a confidence-boosting win in this Preferred field. (4) HUMBOLDT seems to come up with his best in spots where he is completely discounted by bettors and he could spice up the exacta payout here. (6) AMERICAN WIGGLE has gotten really good in his past few starts, and he should be in the mix here. (2) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN has developed some consistency in his current barn and he is another that should be on the Superfecta ticket here.
Race 10
(6) ATLANTA never had a chance with the trip she got in the Casual Breeze. Look for Zeron to put her into this race early. (2) MANCHEGO looks for her 19th win in 22 starts and this should be a great battle with (1) PHAETOSIVE also added to the mix here. The rest will likely be fighting for scraps and I'll use closer (4) BLONDE MAGIC to round out the Super.
Race 11
(3) NOCTURNAL HANOVER takes a big class drop here and Tetrick sticks. He should prove tough to beat. (1) AVALANCHE HANOVER raced well last time and he might be able to work out a good trip here at a price; using underneath. (6) PRINT MEDIA has been sharp for a few weeks and he is another who can threaten racing from close range here. (5) KWIK TALKIN has faced some tough sophomores and he's worth a look in this field.
Race 12
(6) SHAMBALLA got a clean line last week now he moves to a much better post and drops a level; top call. (7) REGAL SON won last time he raced at this level and he should get put into the race here; using. (4) AMERICAN HUSTLE has 12 exacta finishes in 19 races this year; consider for exotics. (2) LINCOLNJAMES is usually close at this level and he should get a good trip here.
Race 13
(1) DON MCWHITE gets his favorite pilot back here and he gets to drop a class; slight nod. (4) ROCK THIS WAY also drops, and he'll get there for his second win this year sometime soon. (8) LYONS WILLIAM was in a tough spot last week and he still rallied well. He is a another in with a good chance here. (6) DREAMY FELLA and (5) COOL ROCK are two ralliers that are good ones to use underneath in this spot.
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