Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/14 Analysis

Meet Stats – 266 – 750 / $1,357.60 (-$140.90)
Best Bets – 45 – 73 / $135.50 (-$10.40)
Spot Plays – 24– 73 / $116.10 (- $26.00)
Best Bet – ALICORN – (1ST)
Spot Play – EAST END (5TH)
Pick 5 – 4/3,5/2/3,4,9/3,4,9 = $3.60
Early Pick 4 – 3,4,9/3,4,9/3,4,5,8/1 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 2,7/3,9/2,3/2,3,5 = $24
Race 1 – SHES A GREAT LADY – Elimination – 2YO Fillies **$50 GTD Pick 5**
(4) ALICORN draws an easy assignment here and it’s hard seeing her getting beat although she may be 1 to 9 on the board. (1) PEAKY SNEAKY is improving and she seems most likely to round out the Exacta here. (6) SOMEBEACHSOMETIME was used up early when facing the very tough Reflect With Me. She is capable of better if she can work out a trip. (5) LADY LOU looks good to round out the Tri or Super.
Race 2 – SHES A GREAT LADY – Elimination – 2YO Fillies
(3) REFLECT WITH ME is on a collision course with Allicorn next week and she should convert here at another short price. (5) LYONS SENTINEL has been terrific lately and she could upset the choice if she trips out. (2) JK FIRST LADY should be in the exotics mix starting from the inside; use underneath. (4) TEMAGAMI SEELSTER looks next best and she may pass a couple of these to round out the Tri.
Race 3 – METRO PACE – Elimination – Two Year Olds
(2) TALL DARK STRANGER has yet to be tested and while that may change here, he should be up to it. (3) PAPI ROB HANOVER has stepped up his game with two sub-1:51 miles in a row and he could give the choice a race here. (5) SEE YOU AT THEBEACH comes off a nice sires stakes win but he loses Lasix here. I’ll use him underneath. (4) CAPTAIN KIRK should be good for a small share racing from close range.
Race 4 – PEACEFUL WAY FINAL – Two Year Old Fillies - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
Great race with several chances; I’ll side with (4) PANEM who has shown sharp improvement in her past two races over this track. (3) DIP ME HANOVER picked a great time to break her maiden and she could trip out here again; using. (9) HELLO TOMORROW didn’t lose by much to the choice last week and she’s hard to discount despite not getting a favorable draw for this final. (8) P L NOTSONICE uncorked a sharp mile when a big price in her elimination; consider for the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 5 – NW $18,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(4) EAST END was a winner last time he raced in a class similar to this one and he should be tough in here. (9) PEDRO HANOVER should get a solid early pace to track here. He could add some value to the Pick 5. (3) BRAVE WORLD is in good form and he should contend for at least a share here. (8) IDEAL JET moves up after blazing around the track, but he will likely get competition for the front early here. I’ll use him underneath in this spot.
Race 6 – WILLIAM WELLWOOD MEMORIAL – Two Year Olds
(5) HP ROYAL THEO was flying late at a big price in his elimination and he is sure to get dismissed again here; call to upset. (4) CAPRICORNUS gamely held off the choice in a good effort and he could be the one to beat here. (3) BACK OF THE NECK rode an easy front-end trip to victory in his elimination but he is still a big threat here. (8) PORT PERRY is likely capable of a more aggressive effort of asked for it here. Don’t take him too lightly.
Race 7 – NW $11,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 – Pick 4
(1) FANCOURT drops and draws well. He should be prominent throughout here. (5) AMERICAN VIRGIN drops even farther than the choice and he is another strong option for multi-race tickets. (4) BRODYS SCRAPPER is razor sharp and he may be up to another class rise here; using. (2) BETTOR OPS beat easier narrowly last time. I’ll use him on the bottom here.
Race 8 – CANADIAN TROTTING CLASSIC FINAL – Three Year Olds
(4) GREEN MANALISHI S got the job done last week despite appearing to be a bit steppy on the final turn. Having driver Tetrick in a race of this magnitude is an obvious big plus; top call. (2) FORBIDDEN TRADE is on his home track and with a good draw he should provide a strong challenge; using. (5) PILOT DISCRETION won here earlier this summer and he is another in with a shot in what should be a good race. (3) SWANDRE THE GIANT should set the pace early and he can hang around for a slice.
Race 9 – METRO PACE – Elimination – Two Year Olds
(7) CAPT MIDNIGHT has been flawless racing over this track and this is another race he should win. McCarthy will no doubt be sending from this post. (2) YS MATHIS has been great in the past two weeks here and if there will be an upset, he will likely be the one to provide it. (4) ALLYWAG HANOVER was no match for the choice last time and another small share is likely here. (6) BEACH BLANKET BOOK came on well to be second to the choice last time and he should make the final.
Race 10 – ELEGANT IMAGE FINAL – Three Year Olds
(9) THE ICE DUTCHESS was in no hurry early last time and that allowed the leader to take a valuable breather. Her price goes way up here and she should get a more aggressive steer; upset play. (3) WHEN DOVESCRY stole a very slow first half and it was lights out for her rivals. She will be formidable here coming back in a week this time. (1) ONLY TAKE CASH has been a win machine but has never faced this type of filly before; small share predicted. (8) SISTERS PROMISE rode a perfect Tetrick steer to her first 2019 win in her elimination. Tactics of others will change here with $376K on the line, and I’ll use her on the bottom in this spot.
Race 11 – PREFERRED
If there is any sharper horse on the grounds than (3) PHYSICALLYINCLINED, I’m not sure who it is. A fourpeat looms. (2) CASIMIR RICHIE P has been facing better and he may trip out riding the choice’s pocket here, so I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER will likely be forced to take the overland route again; using underneath. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER gets Lasix after missing a couple of weeks. I see him as a fringe player here.
Race 12 – NW $8,000 L5 or $17,000 L10
(3) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP tired after chasing some wild fractions set by the speedy Ideal Jet last week. There should be a more balance pace here which gives him a better chance in a class where he fits well. (5) MAJOR HILL is the one to beat on paper on the class drop but notice he is 2 for 31 this year. What price would you take? (2) ROCK THIS WAY was flying late in his comeback race, but he is another infrequent winner; using underneath. (6) REAL WILLEY is always in the mix and he’s a good one to sue in Tris and Supers. (7) ELLIS PARK eats money every week. I’ll sue him on the bottom only.