Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 9/1 Analysis
Best Bet: BACKSTREET SHADOW (3rd)
Spot Play: PRETTY HANDSOME (12th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,6,8,9/2,3,4/1/2,3,9/6,7 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,9/6,7/4,5,9/4,5 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,5,7/1,4/1,4,8/4,6 = $48
MEET STATS: 298 - 915 / $1,720.70 BEST BETS: 51 - 83 / $178.00
SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 80 / $153.40
Race 1
(9) HES A SENSATION changed barns and paced a very fast qualifier leading to this first start for the new connections. I'll take a shot with him here, even from out there. (3) CAPTAIN DRAGON also changes barns here and goes for a trainer that has a high rate of success with new acquisitions; using. (6) ARSENAL SEELSTER was likely a winner if he didn't break briefly last time. He's in the hunt here. (8) MR MACH JIMMY drops slightly and he's capable at this level. This is a tough race where I will spread to start the Pick 5.
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Race 2
This class is right in (4) IDEAL JET's wheelhouse. Catch him to greet the cashier. (2) LINCOLNJAMES had no shot starting from the 8-hole in the Gold Cup and Saucer, but he fits better here; using. (3) AMERICAN HUSTLE should go better if the track is dry. I'll throw him in the Pick 5 mix, too. (5) BIG BANG BOOM can leave hard and get position near the front which should allow him to take a share here.
Race 3
(1) BACKSTREET SHADOW got Gingras for a test drive last week and paced out of the Moreau barn and was an easy winner. He should control this at a short price. (6) LEVIS DAY has been trying hard in some tough spots. He has some exacta appeal at a price here. (7) ALI ships in with great form but this is a tougher spot; small share predicted. (3) SHARP ACTION MONEY is a good one to use underneath to complete the Tri or Super here.
Race 4
(2) TORRIN HANOVER took a while to come around, but he's in top form now and moving inside off a win in this class he gets top call. (9) PHIL THE THRILL has already won in this class several times and he should be tough dropping back down here. (3) GERARDO can be a bit of a money burner, but he could get the right setup this time. I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (7) TRUMP THAT rarely misses the ticket and he's a good one to use underneath.
Race 5
(7) MET'S HALL has been outstanding in his last two miles vs. the best and he gets my nod here. (6) ZEPHYR KRONOS didn't take long to record a new life's mark with the driver switch to Gingras last time, but he loses him here. Price goes up with Takter in the bike, but he is still viable. (2) LAWMAKER is always a threat to get a good piece with his exceptional gate speed and he should share here. (4) MISSILE HILL has some longshot appeal for the exotics coming off a decent effort against the choice.
Race 6
(4) AVALANCHE HANOVER goes to Moreau coming off an improved effort. He can win this, but his price might be a concern. (9) DUBIOUS CLAIM is more than capable at this level, but post is a concern for him with his typical style. (5) MCKINNEY has a decent shot of sitting a good trip near the front then pouncing late here. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (2) SIR GALAHAD is in sharp form and figures to get a decent following trip here; using underneath.
Race 7
(4) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP comes off a good effort racing higher with Tetrick driving and he returns for another try vs. lesser. The price will drop, but he has a good shot here. (5) TRACEUR HANOVER's race two back in this class puts him squarely in contention with these. (6) FINE DIAMOND rarely wins, but he's always around the money racing in these classes and he should share here. (3) SHADES OF BAY is in good form, but he can be erratic at times and a couple of these might be too fast for him.
Race 8
(2) LAZARUS N should be tighter after having a race on this side of the world and that will likely spell trouble for his opponents here. (1) SPLIT THE HOUSE was game in defeat to the choice then came back with another solid try. He can offer some exacta value here because (3) MCWICKED will be a strong second choice in the wagering and he doesn't always get his trip. (8) SINTRA could be laying in the weeds here because we know he's capable of much better than what he has shown recently. You can find worse 25/1 shots than him and that's the price he will likely offer here.
Race 9
(4) THE DOWNTOWN BUS has come around nicely this summer and with the form he is in, he gets a slight nod over (7) ST LADS NEPTUNE, who is the obvious class of the race and who will be tough here. (3) YACHT SEELSTER looks next best and the tri with these three likely won't pay much here. (5) PLAY JET RAY adds Lasix and McClure here which makes him worth a look.
Race 10
(5) WILL TAKE CHARGE looked a winner last week until Ariana G ripped off perfect cover. His price will likely go up here and he is still in with a solid chance; slight nod. (3) MARION MARAUDER is in tremendous form and he's likely the one to beat here. (4) ARIANA G parlayed a perfect drive and trip into an elimination win as an overlay, but she remains a strong contender here. (7) HANNELORE HANOVER has uncharacteristically lost three straight, but she will still get bet heavily here and while I understand she can win, I'll play to beat her in this spot.
Race 11
(4) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT catches a watered-down Preferred field with the Pacing Derby going tonight. He can repeat here. (1) CONTINUAL HANOVER took a new life's mark in this class last time and he was visually impressive closing in the lane. He's the main threat. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN raced tough in the Gold Cup and Saucer and he is the third main contender here. (3) TE KAWAU N can get position early then stick around for a share.
Race 12
(8) PRETTY HANDSOME had two rough trips vs. top company, but he should handle Grassroots types here. (4) BO MACH was a sharp winner with Gingras in the bike last time and he's listed here; using. (1) JM JACK OF HEARTS missed a month between starts last time and he is capable of much better. He may show it here returning quicker. (6) WIND BLAST can contend at a price if he stays flat.
Race 13
(4) RED JOHN is a drop-and-pop specialist and I expect him to wake up in this spot. (6) DRAGON TIME is the hot horse and he's hard to leave out the way he's been going lately. (1) ITS JUST TOO MUCH flew home last time, but he was too far out of it. He has a shot here with a better trip. (7) DON MCWHITE moves back up off a nice win. He can close late for a piece of this. (2) FREDDY BEAR is another closer who is best used underneath in this spot.
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