Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/4 Analysis
Best Bet: JIMMY FRIEGHT (9th)
Spot Play: BURNING MIDNIGHT (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,5/3,4/1,4/3,7/1,5 = $6.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7/1,5/1,5,7/2,4,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 2,4,8/1,5/6/2,9,10 = $18
MEET STATS: 235 - 703 / $1,406.10 BEST BETS: 37 - 63 / $130.60
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 60 / $138.00
Race 1
(3) PHIL THE THRILL has been lights out in winning both starts since McNair took over the driving duties. I'll stick with him here. (5) REAL SURREAL took a new life's mark last time he raced in the non-winners of three class. Expect a big effort here. (7) TIGERS WAY finishes 2nd or 3rd close to 50% of the time over the past two seasons and more of the same is likely here. (1) TRUMP THAT is another who is competitive but is more likely to take a slice than win.
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Race 2
(4) THE REV typically does well when he returns to the WEG circuit and this is a good spot for him; top call. (3) SHADES OF BAY takes a big class drop here and he is sure to get put into play by Henry; using. (1) IDEAL JET will provide some early pace, but this isn't an easy field for him and a small share is likely. (5) MODERN REFLECTION gets a better post to work with after experiencing some traffic issues in the stretch last week; consider for exotics.
Race 3
(4) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT uncorked one of the most impressive miles of the meet last week and anything close to a repeat makes him a winner here. (1) MONGOLIAN HERO was motoring late, but it was too late to get to the winner. A better trip could make him an upsetter here. (5) ALWAYS N THE MONEY produced an impressive stretch rally to win last week and he is a contender here as well. (6) FINE DIAMOND drops, but his weak win percentage is enough for me to look elsewhere for the winner.
Race 4
(7) BEYOND DELIGHT made a couple of moves to win one class lower last week and he should be tough here right back now that he has found his best form. (3) PAPARAZZI HANOVER was victimized by a horse who raced out of his skin and he simply couldn't keep up to him. He should last longer on the lead here. (5) ERLE DALE N steps up off a nice win but some of these are much tougher and a small award could be his ceiling here. (1) ARSENAL SEELSTER should be closing late again to take a piece of this.
Race 5
(1) KIWI FOCUS N paced a strong effort on the pace last time but got no breathers and succumbed late. The inside post gives her some options here; slight nod. (5) PARTY BEACH was the rival that dueled with the choice last time when both paid the price. She's capable with a better trip and the same destructive duel is unlikely here. (3) JET TO THE BEACH has been racing well for owner/trainer/driver Hudon and she can close again to get a piece of this. (4) VILLAGE JAMIE moves to a much better post and she can be a speed threat this time; consider using underneath.
Race 6
(1) BURNING MIDNIGHT had a perfect prep last week for this lucrative Gold event and his late speed should play well here in a race that should have a few leavers; slight nod. (5) ST LADS NEPTUNE got hung out to dry at short odds in Ottawa, but that's unlikely to happen here and all you need to do to know he's a contender is look at the company lines of his past six starts. (7) TASTE OF HISTORY has a poor win record, but he's racing very well right now and a Gold win here wouldn't be a huge shock. (4) WHEN YOU DANCE steps up from the Grassroots division in excellent form, but he is likely to find a couple of these too tough.
Race 7
(2) EASY LOVER HANOVER scorched the Mohawk backstretch in 26 flat to make front last week but that wicked brush likely softened him up just enough to allow a rival to re-rally and beat him. He holds post position edge on that foe here and gets top call. (8) DR J HANOVER was sharp as a tack coming off a short break and raced tough to beat the choice. This race could come down to these two at the wire again. (4) TE KAWAU N is in excellent form, but this step up will likely see him finishing on the edges this time. (3) TRACEUR HANOVER is another who is best used underneath in this spot.
Race 8
(1) AMERICAN HUSTLE surged out of the pocket late to win last week and he has been sharp and competitive for weeks now; call to repeat. (5) HUMBOLDT was flying late but he was too far back. He's very sharp right now and a big threat here. (4) ROCK THIS WAY races hard every week but can't seem to close the deal. I'll use him underneath again here. (2) HOMEY JOE is another who is more likely to come on late for a slice than win this; consider using on the bottom.
Race 9
(6) JIMMY FREIGHT simply lays over this group. Take the Pick 4 free square and move on. (5) BACKSTREET SHADOW raced well in Ottawa, but he was no match for the choice who had stolen a nice second 1/4 breather. He likely completes a chalky exacta here. (2) THE DOWNTOWN BUS was wisely sent from the rail in Ottawa and he led all the way. This time he is likely to be following early, but he can close for a share. (3) SHADOW MOON is another who can produce a good late kick that can round out the Tri or Super.
Race 10
(9) MCDAVE lost 58 races in a row before taking his last two. Trainer Weller has him on point and I'll stick with him here. (2) KAZIMOTO was beaten in the final stride by the choice and he holds a post advantage here, but he is likely to get bet heavier. I'll use both in the Pick 4. (10) MOONWRITER has faced tougher in his past two starts and if he can work out a decent trip here, he should be right there. (3) DON MCWHITE improved sharply last time and he can take a share. (5) MAJOR LEGACY has been finishing his miles okay and he can come late here to take a slice.
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