Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/31 Analysis

Meet Stats – 227 – 648 / $1,189.30 (-$124.10)
Best Bets – 37 – 63 / $111.20 (-$17.20)
Spot Plays – 20 – 63 / $100.50 (- $23.60)
Best Bet – TALL DARK STRANGER (3RD)
Spot Play – YS MATHIS (6TH)
Pick 5 – 4,5,7/5,7/7/6,7/1,2,3 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 – 6,7/1,2,3/2,6/2,7 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 4,5/2/2,5/4,6,7,8 = $16
Race 1 - F&M NW $11,000 L5 or NW $24,500 L9 AE: OPT CLM $25,000- **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(4) P L HURRICANE has faced much better in her last two starts and starting from the middle of the gate, Henry aggression is expected here. (5) ROLL WITH SPARKY also takes a class dip and draws well; the main rival. (7) FRANSCHOEK should blast for position leaving the gate and she could be dangerous if she can secure a pocket ride here. (1) AMERICAN SARA figures to get a decent following trip and she should be good for at least a slice.
Race 2 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD – 2YO Colts and Geldings
(7) EXAMINER HANOVER tried the best last time in a Grand Circuit race, and he wasn’t disgraced. He should be tough here returning to sires stakes action. (5) VELOCITY RUKKUS has shown speed and talent to this point and he still has upside; using. (4) MYLAND steps up from Grassroots but that was a strong win last time and he should contend for at least a share here. (1) NATIONAL SPORT can pass a few of these late; consider for exotics.
Race 3 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD – 2YO Colts and Geldings
(7) TALL DARK STRANGER has bigger fish to fry than sires stakes and he will be 1 to 9 here again. It’s hard to imagine him getting beat. (5) ANETO is capable of better and that poor Nassagaweya line may help his Exacta value. (4) SPORTS OBSESSION has really come around this month and he is in the exotics mix here. (1) DELIGHTFUL TERROR has been on a roll, but he steps into the deep end here; small share predicted.
Race 4 – NW $5,600 L5 or $14,000 L10 - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES - **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(6) DRAGON TIME takes a big drop here to meet a field he should beat; no excuses. (7) POINTS NORTH was solid winning his local debut and if he can improve off that start, he may give the choice a race. (2) INDIGO ART drops one level but appears to be one that will close late for a slice. (1) OFFICER JONES is another who will likely be coming late; using underneath.
Race 5 – MAPLE LEAF TROT FINAL – 3YO and up
(2) CRYSTAL FASHION has proven himself to be one of the best aged trotters on the continent and remarkably, he never goes off as favorite. That could end here, but he gets top call based on how sharp he is right now. (3) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS is also razor sharp and he is sure to give the choice a challenge here. (1) SIX PACK draws much better here and his price should climb; using. (8) MARION MARAUDER should be good for a small share here closing from the back.
Race 6 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD – 2YO Colts and Geldings
(2) YS MATHIS fits much better here after facing many of the best rookie pacing colts on the continent in his past two starts; top call. (6) WIND BLOWN had no shot in a Grand Circuit race starting from the 10-hole. Put a line through that start and he’s a contender here. (3) DENALI SEELSTER should be part of the early pace and he should stick around for a slice. (9) QUICK TOUR has been good in Grassroots races, but this is a much tougher assignment; small share predicted.
Race 7 – NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW $75,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(7) P L IDAHO flew home from the back last week now he gets a better post where he can get back on track with another win. (2) ELLIS PARK drops off a poor effort and while he figures to contend, I won’t take a short price here. (3) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN is quite sharp at the moment. He can close for a share here. (4) YACHT SEELSTER steps up but he comes off a nice win and he’s not out of this.
Race 8 – CANADIAN PACING DERBY FINAL – 3YO and Up
(4) JIMMY FREIGHT perhaps races best over this track and Zeron is a good partner for him. He draws well here, and he may be able to trip out and end (5) LATHER UP’s win streak. The latter is on some roll and it will take a big effort to knock him off. (1) THIS IS THE PLAN will be firing out for position early and he is one that is hard to leave off Tri tickets. (9) MCWICKED can never be counted out, but it’s hard to predict a wining trip here starting from out there.
Race 9 – SIMCOE – Three Year Olds
(2) CAPTAIN CRUNCH simply lays over this group and only a ridiculously bad trip could get him beat. (3) CENTURY FARROH has had (1) BEST IN SHOW’s number all year so I’ll use him to fill out the exacta and it should be paying more than the 2-1 combo. (4) BETTER UP can sit behind the top three and ride the pylons to complete the Super.
Race 10 – NW $31,000 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $80,000
Three starts back, (2) EASY LOVER HANOVER faced a similar field of pacers and he jogged. He gets top call here. (5) PHYSICALLYINCLINED was on a speed mission last week and he was unrelenting despite carving out wicked fractions. He’s too sharp to ignore. (1) BRAVE WORLD gets Roy back here and they have had some success together in the past; price look for the exotics. (3) MAKE SOME LUCK is dead game when he is sound, and he should get a piece of this.
Race 11 – NW $18,500 L5 or $30,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(8) TORRIN HANOVER takes a big class dive here and you have to think Christoforou will be blasting with him in this spot. (7) FANCOURT is sure to be flying off the car and he should get a good trip racing near the front; using. (4) IDEAL JET has been on a great roll, but he is likely to get opposition for the front leaving the gate here. This is where the waters get deeper for the speedy Jet. (6) AMERICAN VIRGIN is capable vs. these and it would be no shock to see him vault past some winded leaders in deep stretch. (3) NICKLE BAG can pass a few of these and make the ticket.