Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/3 Analysis

SATURDAY, AUGUST 3, 2019
Meet Stats – 158 – 475 / 811.50 (-$138.50)
Best Bets – 26 - 44 / $75.10 (-$12.60)
Spot Plays – 10 – 43 / $48.50 (- $37.50)
Best Bet – ROCKIN IN HEAVEN (9TH)
Spot Play – BRONSONS DELIGHT - (2ND)
Pick 5 – 1,5,7,9/6,7/1,2,6/1,4/2,8 = $$19.20
Early Pick 4 – 1,4/2,8/1,2,4/5,6,7 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 5,6,7/2,4,5/7/3,4,5,7 = $36
Race 1 – NW $3,000 L5 or NW $7,000 L10 - GTD $50K Pick 5
Tough race to kick off the Pick 5, but I'll side with (5) CANTABERNET who has stayed flat three straight times in races with drivers (with a Racing Under Saddle break in stride mixed in). His last race indicates that he could be coming up to a good one. (1) NOTHING BUT MUSCLE will likely go favored here off his near-miss to a repeat winner last week. He's a must-use for me. (9) BLAMEITONTHEWHISKY races best at this level and you know McNair will be sending him. He's not out of this. (7) HONOR ABOVE ALL got a perfect drive from Jamieson last time and he looks to repeat in the same class; another to consider for the Pick 5.

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Race 2 – 4YO and Younger NW2 or $28,500 LT AE: NW $500 L4
(6) BRONSONS DELIGHT left fast last week but he couldn't outsprint some outside leavers as often happens to horses leaving from the inside. This race looks tailor-made for a blast down the road with so many in here that typically deploy closing tactics. (7) WINDSUN RICKY was second to a very sharp colt who is climbing the ladder quickly. He is the one to fend off. (1) HERVEY HANOVER raced decently from the 10-hole last week and moving inside gives him a good chance to hit the board again. (5) MCPAT is a wake up candidate here dropping back to non-winners of two only because he meets the added "non-winners of $500 last 4" condition.
Race 3 – NW $11,000 L5 or NW $22,000 L9 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 of NW $80,000 LT
(1) AMERICAN HUSTLE takes a big class plunge here and this is a group that he handles with anything close to his best. (2) P L JACKSON was live last week and he paced a big mile only to be picked off by a pocket rocket. I'll use him on the Pick tickets. (6) TYGA HANOVER has paced some big miles this summer and I'm not sure he can't beat these given the right trip. (5) REAL WILLEY paced a big mile last week but I see him having trouble with the top ones here; small share predicted.
Race 4 – NW $5,400 L5 or NW $10,000 L10 - GTD $50K Pick 4
(1) JAYDENS PLACE was dead game but just short last week to a class-dropper. He should be tough vs. these. (4) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY has faced many tough rivals recently and he seems to fit well here; using. (6) OFFICER JONES wasn't far behind the choice last time, but he often is closing belatedly. I'll use him underneath here. (8) PHIL THE THRILL is sharp and he could better this placing if he gets good position early again.
Race 5 - NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
This race looks to favor deep closers (8) LONE WOLF TERROR and (2) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN. I would expect one to be close enough to pounce on some weaker opponents and I'll use these two in the Pick 5 and Pick 4. (4) BEACHIN LINDY looks like the main speed threat and if he gets a breather he could make things tough on the top two. (10) DRACHAN HANOVER - 1/2 million $ earner - shows improving form and he could juice up the exotic prices here.
Race 6 - NW $3,000 L5 or NW $7,000 L10
(4) ODD BALL couldn't seal the deal when he was bet down to 1 to 5 odds last time. This is another field he should beat if he brings his best race. I'll stick with him. (2) HETTIES COMMANDER performs well for driver Saftic and he comes off a good effort last week; using. (1) SHOSHIE DEO has faced better recently and he's hard to toss racing this low. (3) MONTALBANO BI is obviously good enough to be right there with these if he stays flat - that's the big question mark with him.
Race 7 - F&M NW $28,000 L5 AE: NW $175,000 LT or OPT CLM $60,000 - Pick 4
Mares dropping out of the top class are likely to dominate here and of those, I'll side with (7) WINDSUN GLORY who often makes her own good trip using her wicked early speed to get position. (5) COUSIN MARY is having a solid year and often goes tough trips and keeps coming; using. (6) KENDALL SEELSTER's race two back where she ripped off a 26 1/5 third 1/4 may have taken a little something out of her but she is certainly capable vs. these. (2) WITCH DALI is the other dropper who should be in the mix here.
Race 8 - Preferred
(5) NIRVANA SEELSTER excels in the summer and he may be ready to rip a big mile off now; slight nod. (2) CASIMIR RICHIE P is simply too sharp to leave out at this point. (4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED may have a better chance to sprint early and land in the choice's pocket from where he would have a better chance. (3) EASY LOVER HANOVER isn't in the greatest form but he's hard to toss completely considering his inherent class.
Race 9 - NW $7,500 L5 or NW $15,600 L9
(7) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN paced a 26-flat third 1/4 last week and stayed game all the way only to be picked off in the last step by a rival that he had provided perfect cover for. He is obviously razor-sharp and should prove tough to beat here. (9) FOOT SOLDIER made several moves and understandably tired late but this may not be any easier. (2) INDIGO ART can fly late to grab another share. (5) BILLS FELLA drops and he should be a factor at this level.
Race 10 - NW $22,000 L5 or $36,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $55,000 or NW $140,000 LT
(5) ELLIS PARK paced a 53-flat back 1/2 last week and didn't get a sniff. Moving inside and facing slightly easier might be just what the doctor ordered for the capable veteran. (4) PEDRO HANOVER should be dangerous at this level and McClure sticks; using. (3) PHANTOM SEELSTER is at the top of his game again and he's another who could take this Pick 4 cash leg. (7) EAST END was first up against a very tough and unyielding rival last week. He is another who can take this if provided with a decent trip. (1) MAJOR HILL tripped out, won, now he steps up. I prefer to use him on the bottom here.