Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/25 Analysis

Best Bet: MARION MARAUDER (3rd)

Spot Play: ODDS ON ST LUCIE (4th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,5,8 / 1,5,7 / 1 / 1,2 / 1,5 = $7.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2 / 1,5 / 2,7,8 / 3,6 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 2,6 / 2 / 1,8 / 3,7 = $8

MEET STATS: 280 - 860 / $1,632.40 BEST BETS: 47 - 78 / $162.50

SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 75 / $153.40

Race 1

(8) YACHT SEELSTER comes off a very impressive and explosive win and he should be tough to beat here with anything close to a repeat of that effort. (2) THE DOWNTOWN BUS was beaten by a sharp streaking horse last time and he should be the main danger. (5) TASTE OF HISTORY made two moves when second to the choice last time and he should be in the thick of things here, too. (3) EVENING PLAY is in good form, but a minor share seems likely for him.

Race 2

(5) KEY WEST comes off an eventful trip and she looks best here if things go smoothly. (1) QUEEN OF THE PRIDE’s only loss came when she started from the 10-hole last time at Scioto. She should be one of the main one’s here. (7) IDEATION HANOVER is improving rapidly and she’s another in with a shot that I’ll use in the Pick 5. (6) DEB steps up off a sharp Grassroots win but some of these just appear to be faster; small share predicted.

Race 3

(1) MARION MARAUDER was expertly driven to win the Cashman, but he beat better there, and he should prove best in this Maple Leaf Trot elimination. (7) J L CRUZE should blast here and he can carry his speed a long way vs. these. (5) DANCER HALL is a hot local horse who should give a good account of himself after supplementing to the race. (3) CRAZY WOW is another with early speed who should be around at the finish.

Race 4

(1) ODDS ON ST LUCIE has impressed me in both starts and while the water gets much deeper here, she might be this good. (2) BESTSELLER HANOVER is the obvious one to knock off and a multi-race must-use. (6) PRESCIENT HANOVER hasn’t done much wrong so far and she should be a threat here. (5) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP faces tougher, but it’s hard to fault her consistently good efforts. This should be a good race.

Race 5

(1) WILL TAKE CHARGE is at the top of his game and he should offer an overlaid price here facing two of the highest profile mares in the sport. He gets my nod. (5) HANNELORE HANOVER can never be counted out – especially over this track where she has dominated – but you don’t often look down at two straight losses in her PPs, either. I’ll try to beat her here. (7) ARIANA G should bounce back with a better performance, but the top two might be too tough for her. (4) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS is on a good roll and he can hit the ticket here.

Race 6

(7) CAPTAIN CRUNCH has been impressive in both starts and he should be tough in here. (2) ACTON HANOVER is probably a bit unlucky to have all seconds on his card and he should be a threat. (8) GOLDBERG is another who should be a threat, but the outer post likely relegates him to a smaller share. (6) LYONS JOHNNJR can use his good gate speed to get a spot near the front and then stick around for a slice.

Race 7

I expect (6) SINTRA to wake up here in this tune up for next week’s Canadian Pacing Derby; top call. (3) TE KAWAU is sharp, dangerous and he picks up Gingras here; using. (5) FINE DIAMOND is a great horse to use underneath and that’s where I’ll slot him again. (7) IDEAL JET will be winging it early but likely won’t hold off all of these this time.

Race 8

(4) TALL DRINK HANOVER simply looks fastest of these at this point and she should prove tough at a short price. (2) KYLIE SEELSTER is sharp and her good tactical speed makes her a top contender here (3) BLOSSOM ONTHEBEACH never misses the ticket and she could upset with the right trip. (1) ABUELITA HANOVER can sit a trip and come late for a share.

Race 9

(6) BACKSTREET SHADOW was driven conservatively as the chalk last week now he moves into Moreau’s barn. I expect a more aggressive try here. (2) BURNING MIDNIGHT paced a 26 3/5 third 1/4 last time and that was too much to sustain. He’s missed a couple of weeks, but he is a contender here. (7) TRUMP THAT continues to take a slice every race and he will likely extend that streak here. (4) JM JACK OF CLUBS hasn’t missed the ticket all year, but he’s missed more than a month, and this is likely a tune up for the next OSS Gold race.

Race 10

(2) CAPTAIN AHAB turned up the speed last time and paced a much faster 3/4 than in his previous races. He continues to progress and should be hard to beat here. (7) BEST IN SHOW is logical for the place spot coming off a 2nd-place finish to the choice in the Dream Maker final. (8) MAINTENANCE MAN came around with two sharp wins at Georgian and he is worth a look for the exotics. (5) CAPITANO ITALIANO comes off a break, but he hasn’t missed the board yet and he should make the ticket again racing close up.

Race 11

(8) STAG PARTY should be unbeaten if not for some interference he caused two starts back and I doubt the outer post will stop him here. (1) ODDS ON BOCA RATON is the most logical upsetter if he can sit a trip near the lead throughout. (7) HEISMAN PLAYER has developed a good closing kick and he could come flying late to take a piece of this at a price. (6) BLANK CANVAS had a rough trip in the Dream Maker final and he could offer some exotics value in this spot off that chart line.

Race 12

(7) DUBIOUS CLAIM drops to a likely spot and he should get a more aggressive steer here; top call. (3) MONGOLIAN HERO N was solid winner a class lower from the outermost post; using. (8) MOONWRITER is in very good form now and he could threaten at what might be an overlaid price starting from out there. (4) BEYOND DELIGHT can get good position off the gate and stick around to fill one of the lower exotic rungs.

Race 13

(5) PHYSICALLYINCLINED takes a big drop here and he should be hard to knock off as the chalk. (4) JINS SHARK is capable on his best day and he’s the other one that I’ll use in this Pick 4, and he will offer a better payoff. (1) VELOCITY DRIVEN will be coming late and he is a good one to use underneath in this spot. (3) REGAL SON will probably get sent early here and he should stick around for at least a smaller share. (8) ST LADS NEPTUNE is one of the better sophomores, but he is in between sires stakes engagements and this isn’t an easy spot. Look for him to be taken off the pace and close late for a piece.