Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/24 Analysis

Meet Stats – 208 – 607 / $1,081.20 (-$131.80)
Best Bets – 34 – 59 / $102.80 (-$15.60)
Spot Plays – 17 – 58 / $81.60 (- $34.40)
Best Bet – REFLECT WITH ME (9TH)
Spot Play – CRYSTAL FASHION (3RD)
Pick 5 – 2,4,6/1,4,6/2,4,7/5,6/1,3,11 = $32.40
Early Pick 4 – 5,6/1,3,11/6/2,3,6 = $18
Late Pick 4 – 4,5/2/2,6,7/1,7,10 = $18
Race 1 – Eternal Camnation – Two Year Old Fillies – **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(4) ALICORN paced a phenomenal uncovered trip after breaking at the start of the Battle of the Belles and she has taken a bit of time off perhaps to straighten out the gait issue. If she paces the whole mile here, she should be hard to beat. (6) CAVIART JANE was too far back racing against what is likely the best rookie filly pacer on the continent. She should be the main threat. (2) LADY LOU was first up in that same race and finished ahead of the choice. She isn’t without a chance here. (3) MARTINIQUE BEACH figures for a smaller share vs. these.
Race 2 – Maple Leaf Trot Elimination 3YO and Older
I thought (6) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS trotted a super mile in defeat in the Cashman and I’ll give him the nod here over (4) ATLANTA who has lost two straight but is still obviously a big threat. (1) SPEEDING SPUR N had an impossible trip in the Vincennes two starts back then rebounded with a tripped-out win at Tioga. He could get another great trip here, so I’ll use him in the Pick 5. (5) DREAM TOGETHER really had no excuse in the Earl Rowe. I’ll use her on the bottom here.
Race 3 – Maple Leaf Trot Elimination – 3YO and Older
(4) CRYSTAL FASHION is quietly putting together a very nice season and the best part for a punter is: he never gets bet. He figures to be second or third choice here in a race where he is squarely in contention and he gets my nod. (7) SIX PACK was beaten by the choice twice straight recently but will likely still go favored. He’s obviously a top contender but I’ll play to beat him. (2) HANNELORE HANOVER is almost impossible to leave out of the Pick 5 with her storied love of Mohawk Park on record. (5) MARION MARAUDER can rebound on home soil and take a spot in the final of this stake.
Race 4 –NW $7,500 L5 or $18,500 L10 **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(5) PHIL THE THRILL paced a good mile vs. the red-hot Ideal Jet last week and that rival isn’t in here, so I’ll give him top billing. (6) BETTOR OPS N gained 10 lengths in the lane last week and he gets a much better post here so it’s reasonable to expect he’ll get put into the race this time; using. (1) INDIGO ART also exits Ideal Jet’s race and he should get closer vs. these. (4) OFFICER JONES can enter contention in this spot and come on late to round out the Tri or Super.
Race 5 - Nassagaweya – Two Year Olds
(11) CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT comes off a stakes record performance in which he made several moves and he figures to trip out behind stablemate (1) CAPTAIN NEMO who was a narrow loser to the former twice straight. I’ll use these two in the Pick 5 and add (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER who was over-driven to a 26 2/5 second 1/4 last time after being sold. He could turn the tables with some racing luck. (2) CAPTAIN KIRK figures to come on late again for a share chasing his stablemates home.
Race 6 – NW $15,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 or NW $85,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(6) FANCOURT drops to a logical spot here and he should take beating as the chalk. (4) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN has a much better chance here moving to the middle of the gate. He should be involved early and thereabouts late. (1) TYGA HANOVER was picked off in the final stride by a persistent rival last time. He’s sharp and should be in the mix here again. (5) PEDRO HANOVER can come on late for a slice again.
Race 7 – NW $18,000 L5 or $31,500 L10 or NW 7LT or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(3) AMERICAN HUSTLE drops slightly here and another speed blast may be coming; slight nod in a tough race. (6) STAG PARTY has been racing better lately and he may be able to get off the schneid here although this spot is no gimme facing some salty older foes. (2) TRACEUR HANOVER was first up in a speed show where the pace never slowed. This looks like an easier spot and he should be right there. (5) ELLIS PARK is always a good one to use underneath in Tris and Supers.
Race 8 – Preferred – Pick 4
(4) JIMMY FREIGHT draws well here, and he rates highly but he will need to be on his toes if (5) COURTKY CHOICE brings his “A” game because he does well at this track. Slight nod to the former but using both in the late Pick 4. (7) WESTERN FAME was no match for Courtly Choice last time but his main goal – as well as the two choices’ - comes next week in the Pacing Derby so he may be content to take a slice again. (6) GO WEST GO FAST may sneak onto the Tri or Super at a price.
Race 9 – Eternal Camnation – Two Year Old Fillies
(2) REFLECT WITH ME has looked like a special filly right from her debut race and it would be shocking to see her beat here going for $112K. (1) SOMEBEACHSOMETIME was just too far back last time in a slowish opening half. She can get closer here, but the choice will be very hard to beat. (5) KAT has been second twice in a row to the choice when let go at big odds. She will take Exacta action here and she is in the exotics mix. (3) KARMA SEELSTER is on a good roll but this is a tougher spot; small share predicted.
Race 10 – Ontario Sired Grassroots Starters in 2019 NW $20,000 L5 AE: NW $40,000 LT
(6) OK KUDO was motoring at the end of the mile last week, but he just had too far to come. He can beat these with a better trip. (7) PRICELESS BEACH returned to good form last week, but he was passed late by the pocket sitter who was raging with pace. He returns quicker here, and he is a factor. (2) MACHDAVID had a golden trip last time but he couldn’t catch the pocket-sitter in the stretch. He figures again here. (4) HP NAPOLEON is in great form and while these are tougher, he should compete for a share.
Race 11 – Ontario Sired 3 Year Old Grassroots Starter in 2019 NW $10,700 L5
(10) THE REGULATOR isn’t the safest pick in here, but he left with intent at the start last time then came on nicely late. If Hudon is sending hard at the start, he has a decent shot at a price. (1) MOONSHINE KISSES got a clean line last time now he draws inside, and he should be right there. (7) SPORTS TEEN finished just behind the choice after taking the overland route. He should be in the hunt here. (8) BETTER THAN CASH’s 26 4/5 kicker suggests that he may sneak onto the Tri or Super here. (2) PHILS SUN is another one who is good to use in the 3-4-5 slots in the exotics.