Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/18 Analysis

Best Bet: BACKSTREET SHADOW (5th)

Spot Play: COUSIN MARY (4th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,6 / 1,3,7 / 2,3,9 / 4,5,7,10 / 6 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,7,10 / 6 / 1,7,9 / 4,8 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,9 / 4,5 / 4,6 / 1,8,9 = $36

MEET STATS: 266 - 807 / $1,576.40 BEST BETS: 44 - 73 / $153.20

SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 70 / $150.60

Race 1

(6) DRAGON TIME just missed a class higher and now he adds Lasix, although he has missed some time. I’ll give him a slight nod over (2) SHOE SHINE, who comes off an excellent try from the worst post and now moves inside and retains driver McClure. (3) DARCEE N hasn’t won in forever, but he’s a good one to use underneath. (5) SUNNY BEACH DAY is another who rarely wins but quite often passes horses to take a share. I’ll use him underneath, too.

Race 2

(3) SHAMBALLA was game in defeat last week and this spot looks a bit easier; top call. (1) HUMBOLDT just keeps rolling right along and he’s hard to leave off Pick 5 tickets. (7) BIG BANG BOOM had a start back after missing five weeks and he may get sent forward off the gate here now, which would make him a contender. (2) VELOCITY DRIVEN should be good for a share using his potent late kick racing in this short field.

Race 3

(3) FOREVER LIZA comes off a sharp win vs. easier out of town, but she’s capable here and should get a good trip. (2) SHES LIGHTS OUT drops and stands a good chance to pop especially when you consider she won racing a class higher six starts back. (9) HP PANDORA won last time she raced in this class and her price is sure to be better in this spot; using. (6) WHISTYS PARADISE can close late for a piece of this and could even win it if everything fell perfectly for her.

Race 4

(7) COUSIN MARY dug in gamely to win at Grand River while setting a new track record and she should be a decent price here, so I’ll stick with her. (5) REQUEST FOR PAROLE was game last time and returns in the same class. She’ll get a win soon. (4) BAROCKEY moves inside, drops and keeps McClure. All of that should add up to a much better try. (10) PARTY BEACH is capable but will need to work a trip out from out there.

Race 5

(6) BACKSTREET SHADOW shakes Jimmy Freight here and he should beat these if he is put into play early. (4) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY just wins, although facing the choice may be a tough task for him this time. (1) TRUMP THAT can be counted on to land in the Tri or Super; using underneath. (9) PHIL THE THRILL is on a good roll, but a smaller award might be his ceiling in this field.

Race 6

(7) YACHT SEELSTER was a good second in Gold company last time and he looks solid here. (9) WHEN YOU DANCE wasn’t far behind the choice after doing most of the work and he could be the main danger here despite his post. (1) TASTE OF HISTORY had an impossible trip in the same race and projects to get a much better journey here. I’ll use all three in the Pick 4. (8) HUDSON PHIL is worth a look with three wins in his last four.

Race 7

(4) BEYOND DELIGHT couldn’t chase down the speedy Ideal Jet last time, but his form is improving, and he stacks up well in this field. (8) SHADES OF BAY returned to form last time and while he is going good, I’ll use him in the Pick 4. (2) NOW WHAT HANOVER has a solid late kick most nights and he should be coming late here for a slice. (5) TUXEDO BAY is rounding into his best form and he’s another one to consider when making Tri and Super bets.

Race 8

(9) MONGOLIAN HERO faces so much easier here that it would be a shock if he wasn’t right in the thick of this; top call. (2) ITS JUST TOO MUCH was solid in victory last week and he is the logical alternative if you are worried that the choice won’t leave. (4) SPORTS COLUMN seems to be coming around after a slow start to his 4-year-old year. He’s in with an upset chance here. (5) MOONWRITER steps up off a sharp win but a small share may be his ceiling in this tougher spot.

Race 9

(4) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT raced big last week but was too far back. The move inside should see him more prominently placed early so he gets my nod. (5) SINTRA probably needed his race last week after missing four weeks. Don’t count him out here. (1) NIRVANA SEELSTER should set the early pace again and hang around for a share. (3) CONTINUAL HANOVER is a good one to use to complete your Superfectas.

Race 10

(6) DEEPFAVE HANOVER faces what should be decidedly easier here, so I expect Drury to get aggressive early with him; top call. (4) COOL ROCK drops again and he should be right there vs. these; using. (2) MACH DEJA VU raced tough last time from an outer post and he should be heard from here too, but the top two are more likely to win this. (3) DON MCWHITE got hammered at the windows last time, but Moonwriter was long gone on the engine. Another small share is probable for him here.

Race 11

(8) WESTERN PASSAGE goes for new connections here following a private sale. Perhaps that will wake him up. (9) WIND BLAST would be a contender if he can repeat his last mile from Georgian Downs and his price should be good here. (1) AVALON HANOVER has some sneaky form and I think he’s in with an upset chance here. I’ll use him in the late Pick 4. (2) JOHNATHAN QUICK and (3) MY TEEN IDOL have similar profiles and are good ones to use on the bottom in this spot.