Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 8/17 Analysis

Best Bet – PARISIAN BLUE CHIP – (2nd)
Spot Play – CLIFFHANGER (5th)
Meet Stats – 190– 556 / $1,007.50 (-$104.50)
Best Bets – 30 – 54 / $90.80 (-$17.20)
Spot Plays – 14 – 53 / $71.20 (- $34.80)
Pick 5 – 1,4,7/7/2,4,7/2,6,8/4,6,8 = $16.20
Early Pick 4 – 2,6,8/4,6,8/4,6/2,5 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 1,4,5/3,5/1,6/2,4,5 = $36
Race 1 –NW $3,300 L5 or $7,000 L10 – **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(1) SAGEBRUSH SID blew up at the start of his first start racing out of the Auciello barn, so he gets to drop another conditioned level here. He can make amends if he stays flat. (4) CROFT BAY N closed well into an accelerating late pace, but the winner enjoyed an easy opening half and he was long gone. He contends here but again may be a victim of pace and trip. (7) FOOT SOLDIER was good against uncatchable speedball Ideal Jet and he is the third contender who can win this. (3) ARTOFFICIAL FLAVOR brings solid form back from Kawartha Downs, but I’ll use him underneath in this spot.
Race 2 – F&M NW $6,000 L5 or $14,600 L10
(7) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP exits a highly-rated race and she takes a big class drop. You have to think driver Macdonald will impose his will early here and send her right down the road. (2) TWENTY THREE RED is in solid form and she could get a great trip here; price look for the Exacta. (1) ROYALTYWESTHO should be flying late again; using underneath. (5) WHISTYS PARADISE found another gear late last time to get up and she should be coming late again to hit the ticket.
Race 3 – OSS Grassroots 3YO Colts and Geldings
(4) FAST N FIRST had a great tightener for this last week and the two colts he beat there are pretty good. He gets top call here. (2) HP NAPOLEON has to merit a look shooting for five straight wins here; using. (7) CARLISIMO has been super the past month and he should be prominent throughout here. (1) LUCKY LEVIS is worth a look for Tris and Supers at a price here.
Race 4 – NW $7,800 L5 or NW $16,500 L10 **GTD $50K Pick 4**
This race looks like a prime spot for a stalker to nail some winded leaders late and I’ll take (2) DRACHAN HANOVER to turn that trick. (6) IDEAL JET is in his best from right now, but he could get compromised by the rail horse here. If he clears quickly, though, he’ll be tough. (8) REAL WILLEY has been facing much better and he must be worth a look here. (5) OFFICER JONES should be passing a few of these late to take a slice.
Race 5 – OSS Grassroots 3YO Colts and Geldings
(4) CLIFFHANGER had an impossible trip last week when he got shut off looking for a hole early and he was forced to take to the back, but he was rallying best late and he can beat these with a better trip. (8) OK KUDO – like many from this barn – will pop up and win these Grassroots races at a price like he did two starts back at Grand River; using. (6) PRICELESS BEACH failed as the chalk at Grand River, but he should move forward with that clean line taken. He is another in with a shot in a typically contentious Grassroots dash. (1) PRESTIGE SEELSTER should sit a good trip here and come on late for a share.
Race 6 – NW $25,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $55,000
Interesting dash with several droppers from the Preferred lined up many of whom kike to race on the front end. (4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED may settle, watch the early battle then blast to the front on the backside like he did on June 29th when facing many of these. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER is always a threat to produce a big mile on the engine; using. (8) ROYAL RENEGADE was moving best late last week but he may face a similar trip here; using underneath. (7) FANCOURT will be in the early mix and trip will likely decide his fate.
Race 7 – OSS Grassroots 3YO Colts and Geldings
(5) CARSONS SHADOW broke as the 2 to 5 chalk at Grand River and lost all chance at the start. I’ll give him another chance racing on the big track here. (2) SUGARTOWN is having a solid year and he has been very good in these Grassroots races. He looks like the one to beat here. (1) PHILS SUN is usually right there in Grassroots races and the inside draw should work well here. I’ll use him on the bottom. (4) BETTER MOONON OVER mixed it up last time and was involved in a quick opening 1/2 and he stuck around. He should be in the hunt again.
Race 8 – OSS Gold 3YO Colts and Geldings
(4) SILVER BEAST never misses the board and fits the Grassroots class like a glove. He gets the nod here over (1) DREAMFAIR MOXY who merits a long look with his improving form. (5) SPORTSLINE was on a big roll earlier this summer and facing easier helps here, but I won’t take a short price on him off his last three lines. (7) THE REGULATOR ripped off a 1:49 4/5 mile in a Grassroots race here in late June so you now he’s capable. The question is: which Regulator will show up tonight?
Race 9 – Preferred
(3) WESTERN FAME and (5) COURTLY CHOICE show up likely prepping for the upcoming Canadian Pacing Derby but they both face easier and should be tough here. Take your pick. I’ll side with the former who has had a better year to this point. (2) EASY LOVER HANOVER beat a weaker Preferred field last time. I’ll use him underneath only here. (4) TORRIN HANOVER was flying late last time but could only get up for 4th. Expect similar for this gelding here.
Race 10 – F&M NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000
(1) SANDBETWEENURTOES exits a much tougher race and McNair will likely look to impose his will with this mare tonight. (6) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE finished ahead of the choice last time now she gets a much-improved post. She’s the other one that I’ll use in this Pick 4. (4) REIS STAR CROSS also drops, and she should come on late for a share. (2) AMERICAN SARA should race near the front and that gives her a chance to stick around and land in the Tri or Super.
Race 11 – NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW $85,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(5) SCOUTS REPORT raced well vs. tougher last week and two starts back he beat a field that was similar to this one. He should be tough in here. (2) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN is at the top of his game right now and he should provide another late threat. (4) TYGA HANOVER was close to the choice two starts back. He’s not out of this. (3) HUMBOLDT and (5) NICKLE BAG are both good ones to use on the bottom of exotic bets here.