Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 7/7 Analysis
Best Bet: FOOL ME ONCE (2nd)
Spot Play: DUBIOUS CLAIM (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,4,6/3/3,4/4,5,6/1,5,7 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,6/1,5,7/2,6/6,8,9 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,5/2,3/4,8/1,2,6 = $24
MEET STATS: 193 - 549 / $1,172.60 BEST BETS: 31 - 50 / $109.00
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 47 / $111.10
Race 1
(6) DECLAN SEELSTER faces easier here and he should get put into play this time. I'll give him a slight nod over (2) MY TEEN IDOL, who finished just ahead of him last time, but went a tougher trip. (4) ATOMIC SEELSTER was 2nd to one of the sharpest horses on the grounds last time and he deserves a look off that mile. (3) NOTABADGAME gets Henry back and an inside post. Check how they did two back when starting from an inside post.
Race 2
(3) FOOL ME ONCE drops into a spot where he simply shouldn't get beat; no excuses at short odds. (1) BEACH HOUSE also faces easier and he should have a good chance to complete this exacta. (4) OLLIESTRIKESFAME gets a better post here and he can get up for a share late. (8) ARTOFFICIAL FLAVOR raced well in both starts since coming back off a break and he has some exotics appeal here despite his post.
Race 3
(3) AMERICAN HUSTLE has been super in all of his starts since coming off a rest and he can take another here. (4) DREAMFAIR B J is the other razor-sharp horse in here. I'll stand using those two only in this Pick 5. (5) CULTURAL PARADISE was no match for the choice last time but he can close for another share here. (7) COOL ROCK can pass a couple of these down the lane and land on the edges.
Race 4
(4) PERCY BLUECHIP had less than ideal trips in her last two stakes engagements and she lands in a good spot here to grab a win and get her confidence level back up. (5) BLACK JACK PAT comes to play every week and she's one I think you must include in multi-race wagers. (6) JUST HER LUCK paced her back 1/2 in 53 1/5 last time to grab a check vs. one that was coming off a Grand Circuit win. She can contend here. (3) EXHILARATED is usually around the money racing in these classes; use underneath.
Race 5
(5) PAR INTENDED gets to make hay in this class one more time and gets the same good post to work from; call to repeat. (1) WEATHERLY beat easier but he did it the hard way, making an early wide move on the turn. He's capable vs. these with the right trip. (7) ARSENAL SEELSTER was closing on the choice late last time and he's capable of leaving better than he did that night; using. (6) MCKINNEY is in solid form and he can leave for position then stick around for a slice.
Race 6
(2) GREAT TUNE has been facing some tough ones lately and he could wake up in a big way. I'll give him the nod over (6) NICKLE BAG who drops and will get bet heavily, but is obviously very capable. (1) MAJOR LEGACY is hot and cold, but he merits a look off his last start. (4) KAZIMOTO can take a share if he looks to trip out instead of battling for the front early.
Race 7
There's so much early speed signed on here that I can see a horse coming out of the clouds to win. With that thinking, I'll side with (9) JINS SHARK, who is likely to be last early and flying late. (6) SHAMBALLA makes his return after a disappointing 2017 campaign and I imagine he will deploy a closing style, too. (8) BIG BANG BOOM has been so sharp recently that he merits a look even from out there. (1) NIRVANA SEELSTER moves back up and he'll likely be compromised by the other leavers in here.
Race 8
(2) DUBIOUS CLAIM roared home in :53 flat last week and moving inside he should be able to move earlier and make his own luck here; top call. (5) BLATANTLY BEST takes a substantial class drop and he's the one to beat, although he may get over bet. (4) FREDDY BEAR was no secret last week, converting at a puny price but these are tougher and a smaller share is likely for him here. (8) ROCK THIS WAY is capable, but erratic; your call.
Race 9
(2) EASY LOVER HANOVER lacked room at a critical point of the stretch last week, and he was flying once clear. He can turn the tables on (3) ELLIS PARK this time if he gets a better trip, but both should be used in the late Pick 4. (4) AMERICAN VIRGIN is logical to round out the tri again. (6) PHYSICALLY INCLINED is in top form, but this is a much tougher task; small share is likely.
Race 10
(8) PRETTY HANDSOME shoots for five straight here after taking a new life's mark last week. He'll be tough to overhaul if he clears before the opening quarter. (4) AVALON SEELSTER was a game 2nd to the choice last time and he's the one to fear. (2) POKERFACE BLUECHIP is in solid form and he can take another share here. (3) YACHT SEELSTER is another who can hit the ticket racing close up.
Race 11
(6) CASIMIR RICHIE P and (2) THE DOWNTOWN BUS were both overmatched racing against the country's best sophomore pacing colt last time. They should both improve sharply here. Nod to the former, who has better early foot. (1) TASTE OF HISTORY fires home quickly every week and despite having a poor win record, he's a threat here. (4) WIND BLAST should improve starting from the inside here and he can stick around for a share vs. these. (8) LEVIS DAY has improved in his last couple and he isn't the worst longshot you could take a stab on tonight.
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