Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 7/28 Analysis
Best Bet: P L HURRICANE (3rd)
Spot Play: BET ON BRITT (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,4,5/1,4,5/1/4,7/1,4,5,6 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 4,7/4,5,6/4,6,8/1,3,4 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4/4,6,7/4,5/1,10 = $36
MEET STATS: 229 - 670 / $1,379.80 BEST BETS: 36 - 61 / $128.20
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 58 / $138.00
Race 1
(4) AMERICAN HUSTLE was just short last week after cutting a fast opening 1/2. In this shorter field, he might be able to get a breather which can make the difference. (1) HUMBOLDT flew from far back as the late pace slowed to get up at big odds when coming off the shelf. He fits well here though and is a threat right back. (5) ROCK THIS WAY is in solid form and he'll get there one night soon. (2) DEEPFAVE HANOVER can be a threat here if he avoids racing first up this time.
Race 2
(4) POKERFACE BLUECHIP made a threatening move on the last turn at Rideau, but the winner was too good and wouldn't be caught. He gets McClure here and gets a slight nod over (1) AVALON HANOVER who had an impossible trip racing against the best sophomore pacing colt in the Ontario Sires Stakes. He can rebound here. (5) SIMPLE KINDA MAN figures here but he needs to get rolling earlier. (3) FAMILY SPORTS is capable of a decent late charge and he could crash the exotics at a price here.
Race 3
(1) P L HURRICANE drops and she should pop vs. this group. (5) PARTY BEACH also drops and she's sharp and dangerous in this spot. (6) ANDERSON SEELSTER is interesting on the barn change and she has been racing great in Indiana, albeit against easier. (3) BUTTERMILK HANOVER moves up after beating up on weaker. A small share is probable for her this time.
Race 4
(7) ERLE DALE N hinted at better from last time now he lands in a good spot; slight nod. (4) MACH MESSIER got used up chasing a sharp winner last time and he should be a strong pace presence here. (5) SPEEDLING was first up in the same race and paid the price. He's also in with a shot here. (6) BROOKDALE SONNY has some decent races out of town and he is a good one to use underneath here.
Race 5
(6) AMERICAN WIGGLE paced a 54 1/5 middle 1/2 on his way to a life's-best score last time and he should be tough to beat right back. (5) SHAMBALLA returned to his winning ways and the classy veteran is an obvious threat, but he is likely to get overbet in relation to his chances vs. the choice. (4) TE KAWAU N was racing well vs. similar down south and he can share here. (1) RED JOHN can close from far back and take a piece of this.
Race 6
(8) EASY LOVER HANOVER amazingly got beat while pacing a 25 2/5 kicker after making the front in the lane, but there's no McWicked here so he gets the nod against these. (4) DR J HANOVER qualified well enough on July 20th to suggest a wakeup effort is coming. (6) CONTINUAL HANOVER comes off his best race ever and he is in with an upset chance despite facing tougher. (1) NIRVAVNA SEELSTER will likely set the early pace but him lasting vs. these is unlikely.
Race 7
Tough race with several possibilities, but I think it sets up for a closer, so I'll try (3) REGAL LUCK, who finished fast for Macdonald last week and that driver sticks here. (4) DONTBRUISECARRIE is another good closer who figures to trip out in this spot. (1) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE has been racing well and check out the stats on resurgent Hall of Fame driver Brown who has hit the exacta with more than 40 percent of his drives so far. (10) VILLAGE JAMIE drops and she could be a speed threat from out there.
Race 8
(5) BEYOND DELIGHT raced well last week but the leader got a good second 1/4 breather and that was the difference. He looks solid here. (1) DRAGON TIME exits a quick dash where he failed to threaten as chalk. Maybe he'll get involved earlier from this post. (2) MACH DEJA VU moves up but he can sit a trip near the front and take a slice. (8) AVALANCHE HANOVER frequently finishes on the edges and he can add some value to the exotics here.
Race 9
(2) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT is in good form and goes for Auciello here, who does well with new acquisitions; top call. (4) FREDDY BEAR drops to a logical spot and he's one that I think is a must-use to kick off this late Pick 4. (3) PAPARAZZI HANOVER is always a threat to steal one and he must be getting fitter each week; using. (1) SAGEBRUSH SID should go much better here dropping in class and moving inside; use underneath.
Race 10
(4) BET ON BRETT was involved in a heated early battle for the front then hung in there well late. He should get a better trip racing on or near the lead here; top call. (6) ALWAYS N THE MONEY raced well a couple of classes higher now drops again and he's logical in this spot making his fourth start back. (7) FOOL ME ONCE got hammered at the windows off the barn change and showed nothing, but he gets a better post this time and he could explode with a big effort. (2) BEACH HOUSE is always around the money and is a good one to use underneath.
Race 11
(4) BURNING MIDNIGHT missed a month between starts when facing Jimmy Freight now he comes back quicker and faces much easier; top call. (5) PHIL THE THRILL was sharp in victory with McNair on for the first time last week and that driver sticks; using. (6) TASTE OF HISTORY only has two wins but he's usually around the money and he is a good one to use in Tris here. (2) LEVIS DAY is another who frequently finishes on the fringes that is best used underneath.
Race 12
(10) J JS DELIVERY may be able to clear these by the time they reach the 1/4 and if he does, he has a good chance to close the deal vs. these. (1) KAZIMOTO is sneaky in here facing easier and starting from the inside; using. (4) DRUNKONAPLANE looked like a winner in mid-stretch last time only to be nailed by a deeper closer. He should be on the ticket again here. (6) MCDAVE can close for a minor share in this spot. (3) TOXICITY frequently takes checks and he can land in the top 5 at the finish here, too.
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