Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 7/27 Analysis

Meet Stats – 137 – 424 / $709.10 (-$138.90)
Best Bets – 22 – 39 / $62.60 (-$15.10)
Spot Plays – 8 – 38/ $41.20 (- $34.80)
Best Bet – BODICEA – (2ND)
Spot Play – PLAY JET RAY (7TH)
Pick 5 – 1,4,5,8/6/1/2,6/2,3,4,8 = $6.40
Early Pick 4 – 2,6/3,4/1,2,5/2,5,8 = $36

Late Pick 4 – 2,5,8/5,6/4,6/4,5,9 = $36
Race 1 – Ontario Sired 3YO Grassroots Starters in 2019 NW $40K in 2019 – GTD $50K Pick 5
(4) BETTER MOONON OVER got clearance late last week and by that time the horses in the outside lanes had momentum. I’ll price shop and give him a slight nod here. (8) SILVER BEAST flew late to beat many of these, and he was several lengths clear not far past the wire. He is very sharp. (1) BETTER THAN CASH fell just short. He could win this with a different trip. (5) THE REGULATOR is another who can win this with the right trip in a contentious kick off to the Pick 5.
Race 2 – OSS Gold 3YO Fillies
(6) BODICEA is just too good right now. Last week she took a stutter step at the start and need whip-tap urging to clear past the 1/2 and she still drove away to a life’s best-equaling 1:49 mile. I can’t pick against her here. (1) LOVELY DONNA was flying late to get second, but she was no threat to the choice. There could be more of the same here. (4) SUNNY DEE was no match for the choice last week, but she did finish second to here two back in a Gold race; using underneath. (3) DEB should follow along and stay for a share.
Race 3 – NW $7,800 L5 or $15,000 L10
(1) AMERICAN VIRGIN takes a big class plunge here and he draws inside; no excuses vs. this group. (6) INDIGO ART was in an impossible spot last time when he dropped to this level. He can improve sharply here leaving from the best post. (3) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE has a similar profile making his second start in the class and getting a better post; consider for exotics. (7) REGAL SON is one that seems to zig when I zag. I’ll try to beat him out of the Tri looking for some value underneath the choice who should be odds-on.
Race 4 – NW $7,800 L5 or $15,000 L10 – GTD $50K Pick 4
(2) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN came back ready to play last week and off that sharp mile he gets the call to repeat despite jumping one class level. (6) HUMBOLDT drops a few levels here and he should wake up in this spot; using. (4) LONE WOLF TERROR is always closing but he’s often pacing into the teeth of an accelerating pace. I’ll use him on the bottom of Tris and Supers. (3) GHOST DANCE raced better last time, but he would need to bridge the 4 3/4 lengths that he was beaten by the choice.
Race 5 – 5YO and Younger NW 3 or $50,000
Tough race with several possibilities and many horses between sires stakes engagements making intent a guessing game. I’ll side with (4) CARSONS SHADOW who has raced great in two straight for Jamieson who has been hot lately. (3) PRICELESS BEACH is obviously one of the better ones in here, but he’s missed a month; your call. (2) SUGARTOWN projects to get a good trip leaving from the inside and he is an upset possibility. (8) MOONSHINE KISSES has won four times this year and all four have come in his past six starts. He’s hard to toss.
Race 6 – Preferred
Trip will play a big part in the outcome of this race and it’s hard to imagine that (1) PHYSICALLYINCLINED won’t get a better trip here moving from post 10 to the rail; top call. (5) CASIMIR RICHIE P comes off a life’s best score in this class last week and he will be tough here again; using. (2) EASY LOVER HANOVER is another who should get a better trip, so I’ll use him in the Pick 4. (7) PEDRO HANOVER will be closing again late and he can better this prediction if there is a hot pace early.
Race 7 – NW $26,500 L5 or $30,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $55,000 or NW $140,000 LT – Late Pick 4
(5) PLAY JET RAY keeps getting first up trip s and falling just short. With the class rise here, he may get a more conservative drive, find a live helmet and pop at a better price. (2) MAKE SOME LUCK is one I can see leaving for a spot near the front, staying in then rallying up the inside down the lane. (8) EAST END’s sub-1:49 mile in a similar class two starts back makes him a contender here despite his post. (1) TRACEUR HANOVER seems to go in and out of his best form but he is capable vs. these on one of his better nights.
Race 8 – OSS Gold 3YO Fillies
(5) POWERFUL CHRIS nearly beat a sharp older open mare last time she raced here. She gets the nod over (6) SO MUCH MORE, who comes off an impressive win vs. lesser last week. (4) IDEATION HANOVER is improving, and Macdonald might trip her out racing near the front here; beware. (2) BETTER SINGLE should be rallying late to take a small share.
Race 9 – NW $16,000 L5 or $28,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $45,000 or NW $120,000 LT
(6) BRONX SEELSTER got back on track last week and a repeat of that mile will make him tough right back vs. these. (4) FASHIONONTHEBEACH beat a good colt at Georgian and he will likely be the main threat to the choice here. (2) PHANTOM SEELSTER is on a roll and he’s not out of this but he may find one or both top choices too fast. (5) VELOCITY DRIVEN will be rallying late for a slice as he does often.
Race 10 – Ontario Sires 3YO Grassroots Starters in 2019 that are NW of $23,000 in 2019
(9) ST LADS THRILLER hinted at better things to come two starts back then tripped out to win at a big price last time. He may get overlooked somewhat again from out there, so I’ll stab with him. (4) CARLISIMO did all the heavy lifting and was nailed late by the choice. He contends again. (5) LOUD SPLASH was in poor cover last time. He’s capable of much better. (1) BRONSONS DELIGHT can sit a following trip and crack the Superfecta. (3) PRESTIGE SEELSTER is a great one to use underneath with five thirds in nine tries this year.

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