Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 7/21 Analysis
Best Bet: MCWICKED (9th)
Spot Play: JINS SHARK (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3,5/1,2,7,8/1,5/1,2,5/6 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,5/6/1,6,7/1,2,8 = $27
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,7,9/1/4,6/1,5,9 = $24
MEET STATS: 218 - 625 / $1,322.30 BEST BETS: 33 - 57 / $115.50
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 54 / $131.00
Race 1
(3) MODERN REFLECTION beat similar last time then waited for this spot. These are tougher, but he may get the opportunity to trip out in the pocket here; slight nod. (5) ARSENAL SEELSTER showed late interest vs. tougher and he could get the right setup here to roll by late. (2) BEYOND DELIGHT - the 2016 Metro Pace winner - returns in decent form and is worth a look here. (4) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING raced well in a race where the winner took a new life's mark. He's worth a look here.
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Race 2
(8) AMERICAN HUSTLE faces easier here after a good try chasing the classy Shamballa. He can go coast-to-coast here if he clears quickly. (7) DUBIOUS CLAIM is as good as he gets right now. Expect another sharp effort. (1) DEEPFAVE HANOVER is worth a look off the deadly Auciello fresh claim angle; using. (2) ROCK THIS WAY can be erratic, but right now he seems on his game and he's another that rates highly in this contentious dash.
Race 3
(1) PHIL THE THRILL chased a very good colt last time and closed into an accelerating final 1/4 in a sharp effort. He looks solid here. (5) TRUMP THAT drops to a logical spot but notice he tends to finish 2nd frequently. (6) TIGERS WAY will probably close too late as has been his custom most nights; small share predicted. (2) DANCE WITH JOE brings great form in from Quebec. He can take a slice here.
Race 4
This is a tough race with several mares moving up and down the ladder. (2) EXHILARATED is usually tough when she gets to race this low and she gets the nod. (8) SHES LIGHTS OUT paced a sub-27 second 1/4 last time when hung out uncovered and understandably stopped late. She can improve sharply here at a price. (5) REIS STAR CROSS requalified nicely, and she is usually around the money in these classes; using. (4) SHEZAREALDEAL is a good one to use underneath in the Tri and Super here.
Race 5
(6) AMERICAN CHEER takes a big drop here and six starts back she had no trouble when racing a class higher. She should be tough to beat. (7) KIWI FOCUS N comes off a strong first-over effort and she can offer some value in the exacta here starting from an outer post. (4) ACTION MAJESTY has improving form and she's another that can hit the ticket. (3) TWENTY THREE RED may be rated a bit low here after breaking through for Moreau last time. She can crack the top three with a decent trip.
Race 6
(6) TOUCHDOWN AS makes his second start for Puddy and if he stays flat here, he could get a perfect stalking trip then pounce late. (1) TALBOTCREEK SUZIE draws better and faces easier; using. (7) AMOREUSE HANOVER was used up early last time from the worst post. Moving in three slots gives her a better chance this time. (4) ROSESAREEXPLOSIVE should be passing some of these late and she can grab a slice.
Race 7
(2) SHOE SHINE drops and moves inside. There should be a big try coming here. (8) DREAMY FELLA takes a bigger drop than the choice and Christoforou has left with him before in these types of spots; beware. (1) MAJOR LEGACY is good right now and he should get a decent trip here; using. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER is sure to show the way again and one of these times he will give them the slip.
Race 8
(7) HP PANDORA gets a few changes here, including adding Lasix and changing barns. She could blast and never look back. (2) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE steps up marginally off a solid victory and she should be prominent again; using. (9) WHISTYS PARADISE was close at this level three back and post isn't a factor because you know she's dropping to the back at the start regardless. (1) BIG CHUTE rarely wins, but she could trip out in a spot like this at a price. I'll throw her in the late Pick 4.
Race 9
(1) MCWICKED just beat the best on the continent last week, so he should make short work of these as long as he gets put into the race early enough. (4) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN has really turned up his game the last few starts, and he will be a price here. I'll use him in the exacta. (6) TRACEUR HANOVER was closing into a slowing late pace last time, but he can close for a slice here as can (8) PHYSICALLYINCLINED, who is in great form but will likely be rolling up from the back this time.
Race 10
(4) JINS SHARK raced great again from an outer post last week, now he moves inside. It's go time. (6) VELOCITY DRIVEN drops and will get bet heavily here but he's a Pick 4 must-use for me. (9) SHADES OF BAY is capable in this class, but he's had issues with drifting out in the lane for a while; your call. (5) DREAMFAIR B J comes to play every week and he should hit the Super ticket here despite facing tougher.
Race 11
(5) MAJOR HILL lost to two sharp horses in his past two starts and he looks solid here leaving from a good post. (9) BET ON BRETT took a new life's mark last week and he will no doubt be blasting looking for more here; using. (1) BEACH HOUSE has improving form and may trip out from the inside here. I'll use him in the Pick 4. (10) FOOL ME ONCE is likely to be closing late for a slice starting from out there. (7) NICKLE BAG steps up but missed a couple of weeks and is another likely to finish on the fringes here.
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