Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 7/20 Analysis

SATURDAY, JULY 20, 2019
Meet Stats - 118 – 373 / $610.90 (-$135.10)
Best Bets – 18– 34/ $47.60 (-$17.50)
Spot Plays – 7 – 34 / $33.60 (- $34.40)
Best Bet – BETTER BE DONNA – (3RD)
Spot Play – MAKE MINE MOCHA (4TH)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Pick 5 – 1,2,6,9/2,3,4,5,6/5/1,4/3,7 = $16
Early Pick 4 – 1,4/3,7/1,5/3,7,8 = $24
Late Pick 4 – 3,7,8/2,6/1,4,6/1,4 = $36
Race 1 – Ontario Sired 3YO Grassroots Starters in 2019 NW $39K in 2019 or $5,300 L5 – GTD $50K Pick 5
(6) BETTER THAN CASH exits the toughest race and he had no shot trying to come from the clouds vs. the sharp Moonshine Kisses. Expect an aggressive steer from white-hot teamster Filion here. (1) CLIFFHANGER overcame some early trouble to win and he is hard to toss considering his excellent current form. (2) SILVER BEAST is getting closer and he’ll pop soon; maybe tonight? (9) THE REGULATOR has the fastest mark of any taken three starts back, but it’s hard to predict how he’ll be driven from out there in a non-Grassroots race. I’ll use him underneath.
Race 2 – NW $16K L5 or NW $26K L10 AE: OPT CLM $45K or NW $120K LT
(2) TORRIN HANOVER was very sharp last week and he usually pairs good efforts; call to repeat. (3) MAKE SOME LUCK has been good in every start since returning and he can win this with a trip. (6) DRAGON TIME should improve on the class drop and the shorth field should help him; using. (4) DREAMFAIR B J is another who is very sharp right now and he could do here if he trips out near the front. This is a tough race considering the short field.
Race 3 – F&M 5YO and Younger NW 5 or $70K LT
(5) BETTER BE DONNA N just took a new life’s mark beating many of these and she squeaks into the condition by a few thousand dollars. She should be very tough to beat at a short price. (3) KYLIE SEELSTER was a good second to the choice, and she can complete another Exacta here. (1) DEB should get a good trip near the front and hang around for a slice. (6) IDEATION HANOVER has been better of late and she should be in the exotics mix here.
Race 4 – F&M NW $10K L5 or NW $21K L 10 AE: OPT CLM $25K - $50K GTD Pick 4
(1) MAKE MINE MOCHA is somewhat hidden here. Last time she raced this low was here in April and she was a winner. I like that she gets McNair and I’m swinging away with her. (4) BETTER DECISION N also drops, and she may get put right on the point by Cullen; the main danger. (8) HELLO LOVE will be flying late again, but she may get too far back to threaten for the win. (2) ARTISTIC MADISON drops and gets post relief, but she will get bet and she’s stuck on one win this year. I’ll play to beat her.
Race 5 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $51K LT
(3) MOONSHINE KISSES is as sharp as a tack right now and he’ll take beating again here. (7) CARSONS SHADOW comes off a life’s best performance and he should be the main threat to the choice. (5) SUGARTOWN is in solid form but he may find the top ones too tough. (2) B STONEY took money and showed little last week. I see him closing for a small share here.
Race 6 – NW $11K L5 or $23K L10 AE: OPT CLM $30K or NW $75K LT
(1) BRONX SEELSTER gets his easiest spot of the year here and if he is going to wake up, this should be the spot. (5) BIG BANG BOOM was close to winning one level higher two starts back and he should get a good trip racing near the front here; using. (8) BILLS FELLA manhandled easier last time, but the same trip is unlikely here. I’ll use him underneath. (3) DRAGON STRIKER comes off a nice effort and he should be in the mix here again.
Race 7 – Preferred Handicap - Post 1-5 Drawn, Post 6-10 Drawn – Late Pick 4
(8) EASY LOVER HANOVER moved at will for McNair last time and won easier than it looks in the program; call to repeat. (7) FANCOURT is very sharp right now and he should be a big threat racing on or near the lead. (3) EAST END took advantage of some early battling last week, but he paced a 1:48 2/5 lifetime-best mile so he merits a long look here. (2) GO WEST GO FAST can tag along and land in the Super.
Race 8 – NW $5,200 L5 or $10,000 L10
(2) BETTOR OPS N would be very hard to beat racing this low if all is okay with him and his qualifier suggests that he’s ready for a decent effort; top call. (6) HES A SENSATION should be a part of the early pace here and the most likely alternative if the choice falters; using. (8) PHIL THE THRILL raced tough last time while being involved in some wicked fractions. He can hit the board here. (7) CROFT BAY N is worth a look for the bottom of Tris and Supers at this level.
Race 9 – F&M Preferred
(1) WINDSUN GLORY tripped out to win at a price last week but she should get another nice spot early here and she could get a similarly sweet journey; slight nod. (4) KENDALL SEELSTER waged war with Shower Play around the final turn and that battle set the table for the choice. She should be a big player here. (6) DOUBLE A MINT steps up off a season’s-best score and she’s not out of this. (5) WITCH DALI can close late for a share.
Race 10 – NW $7,500 L5 or NW $15,500 L10
(1) PHANTOM SEELSTER is obviously cured of whatever was ailing him and he comes in off a new life’s best score. He should be tough again here. (4) MONGOLIAN HERO N was the only one closing last time in a good effort and he is in with a good chance here. (8) FOOT SOLDIER is another in with a shot here, but he will have to work out a trip from out there. (5) AVALANCHE HANOVER drops, and he should be a factor in this field. (6) CANDID CAMERON exits some tough races. He could better this placing with a trip.