Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 7/14 Analysis
Best Bet: PARTY BEACH (1st)
Spot Play: WANDA BAYAMA (10th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1/1,2,3,7/5,8,9/1,2,4/1,4,8,9,10 = $36
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,4/1,4,8,9,10/2,5,6/6 = $45
LATE PICK 4: 1,7/4,5,7/1,4,6/1,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 204 - 581 / $1,239.50 BEST BETS: 31 - 53 / $109.00
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 50 / $118.70
Race 1
(1) PARTY BEACH takes a class plunge here to face a group she should handle. Expect an early move to the front from her. (2) ACTION MAJESTY steps up one level off an improved performance, but the choice may prove too much for her to handle here; exacta factor. (7) REGAL LUCK was decent at this level last time and she can take another share here. (5) NAUGHTY LADY B tripped out to win a class lower. That same trip is unlikely to be available here; small share predicted.
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Race 2
(1) DUBIOUS CLAIM made a big move last week but getting to the 3/4 in 1:22 1/5 may have ultimately led to his undoing late. There is speed to chase here and he can make amends. (3) HOMEY JOE is as sharp as a tack and hard to leave out at this point. (7) MAJOR HILL couldn't get by a big class-dropping chalk last week, but he could go a long way here if he clears early. (2) ITS JUST TOO MUCH is worth a look shipping in and he's another in with a decent chance in a contentious dash.
Race 3
(8) REAL SURREAL showed what he could do in a non-winners class two starts back when he lowered his life's mark to 1:50 3/5. Anything close to that effort gets the job done here. (9) ARTOFFICIAL FLAVOR is dead fit now and he would be a big threat here if he gets sent off the car. (5) SHARP ACTION MONEY comes off an OSS Gold win and is an obvious contender, but like the choice, he's between stakes engagements. (4) DANCIN DOUG can sneak into the exotics at a price by passing a few of these down the lane.
Race 4
(4) BET ON BRETT was overtaken in the second 1/4 of each of his last two starts vs. tougher but he stands a good chance of controlling the pace here in the class drop; top call. (1) SPEEDLING will likely push to get the pocket at the start and if he succeeds that makes him very dangerous. (2) AVALANCHE HANOVER is worth including on the class drop for a hot barn. (5) DRAGON TIME raced great last week but these are tougher. He can grab a small share.
Race 5
I was impressed with the mile (10) JINS SHARK paced last week, first up for the last 5/8ths of a mile. While this is no easy spot, he's not impossible and his odds should be generous again. (9) ST LADS NEPTUNE is probably the second best sophomore pacer in the land and while he is obviously competitive here, this race can also be a means to an end. Beware taking too short a price. (1) FINE DIAMOND is obviously competitive at this level, but his poor win record is always a concern. (8) SHAMBALLA is working his way back and he may need one or two more before he can show close to his best.
Race 6
(6) KENDALL SEELSTER looked like her old self last week and that could mean trouble for her rivals here. (5) EXHILARATED raced very tough last week, battling all the way to the wire. She's a top contender here. (2) SHEZAREALDEAL has stepped up her game in her past two starts. She's in with an upset chance here. (1) BETTORS UP disappointed twice as a big chalk. It's hard to say how she stacks up right now after watching her fail in fields that she should have beaten.
Race 7
(6) JM JACK OF HEARTS has been one of the most impressive horses on this circuit this year for me. I'll stick with him here. (4) YACHT SEELSTER was narrowly beaten by the choice two starts back when he was first up. He could turn the tables with a better trip. (8) THE DOWNTOWN BUS has clicked recently but it might be tough for him in this field from this post. A smaller share is predicted. (3) GOLD RUSH is a good one to use underneath with his useful tactical speed.
Race 8
(7) PEARL BLUE CHIP may have been overdriven early in the mile last time and it cost her late. She can rebound here using different tactics. (1) CENALTA CALL GIRL has improved sharply in her past two and she should be tough right back here. (4) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW is another who has picked it up in her last couple of starts and she can grab a share here. (3) JAN is one that is always hanging around for a slice it seems and that's the likely result for her in this race.
Race 9
(7) NIRVANA SEELSTER is very good right now and there's a strong chance he'll control this race in the same manner as he did in his last two starts. (5) VELOCITY DRIVEN has never been better, but he must be mindful to not let the winner get away here. (4) BIG BANG BOOM couldn't go with the choice late last time and a similar race shape is likely here. (3) CONTINUAL HANOVER has raced okay since her returned to the circuit and he can share here again.
Race 10
(4) WANDA BAYAMA had a good tightener after missing six months action and she is certainly capable against this kind; slight nod. (6) MANHATTAN PLAY is sharp and racing well, but her 0 for 18 record this year sticks out a bit. She does fit here though, and I'll use her. (1) KIWI FOCUS N could trip out near the front here and pounce late; beware. (5) BIG CHUTE rallied well last week, and she could do the same here and hit the ticket.
Race 11
(7) CHAMPAGNE PHIL drops to a logical spot and McClure is sure to put him into this race early; top call. (1) IMSPORTY steps up slightly off a sharp win and he should be the main threat to the choice. (2) MCKINNEY was a game winner last week, but I don't see him toppling both of the two choices here; small share predicted. (8) BEACH HOUSE raced well last week in this class when behind a class-dropping 1 to 2 winner; use underneath. (6) E L WILD SPIRIT will be closing as always, and he should fill one of the lower exotic rungs.
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