Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 6/30 Analysis
Best Bet: EASY LOVER HANOVER (9th)
Spot Play: DREAMFAIR B J (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,6/2,3,5/1,7/2,3/1,2,3,4 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3/1,2,3,4/2,8/3,4,9 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 3,4,9/4,9/3,6/2,3,10 = $36
MEET STATS: 167 - 496 / $1,049.50 BEST BETS: 27 - 45 / $91.90
SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 43 / $101.80
Race 1
(3) CHARMBO ORBIT was nailed in the final strides by a rival who sat a perfect trip on his helmet the entire mile. He looks solid to take a win here making his second start out of the circuit's hottest barn. (6) FREDDY BEAR fires home quickly every week and this is a decidedly easier field than what he has been facing recently. I expect him to wake up in this spot. (8) FACE OF WAR is in good form, but he's more likely to close late for a slice. (7) CREDIT RISK is worth a look for the exotics going for a new barn here.
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Race 2
(3) OSBORNE SEELSTER was beaten by two class-droppers last week in a solid effort. He is one of three that seem evenly-matched that can win this race. (2) LONDON SEELSTER had no shot of closing into a snail's pace last week. He looks good here, but he must be wary that a similar scenario can develop in this short field. (5) HOMEY JOE has done nothing wrong so far in this four-year-old campaign and I'll use him in the Pick 5 here. (7) DUBIOUS CLAIM can pass a few of these late for a share.
Race 3
(7) DREAMFAIR B J motored home to win last week and it looks like he has a favorable pace scenario again here; call to repeat. (1) COOL ROCK has hit his best stride recently and he should be a contender here if he stays within striking range. (6) MOHAWK WARRIOR can sit a decent trip near the front and take a share. (2) VELOCITY DRIVEN was too much for overmatched rivals last week, but he steps back up here and is likely to be coming late for a slice this time.
Race 4
(2) FOREVER LIZA takes a big class plunge here; no excuses. (3) BLACK JACK PAT pressed then overcame solid fractions last time which is the mark of a sharp horse; using. (8) BERNADETTE can close for a share again in this spot. (4) KAYS SHADOW is another that figures to pass mares late that can be used on the bottom in this spot.
Race 5
(4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED just failed to close the deal last week, but he's sharp and gets the nod over (2) MONGOLIAN HERO N, who got hopelessly parked last time. He should get a better trip here and contend. (1) BLATANTLY BEST was absolutely flying late in the mile last week and he merits a look here off that effort. (3) CONTINUAL HANOVER changes barns and drops Lasix here so it's hard to say if he can repeat his last two miles.
Race 6
(8) E L WILD SPIRIT is on a roll and this is the last time he will get to race in this class until he drops down, so I'll stick with him. (2) THE LOAN RANGER had to leave town and race for a lower purse to qualify for this race. Check out his mile two back here. (3) HIDDEN POTENTIAL was sharp in this class last week, but he is an infrequent winner on this circuit. I'll use him underneath. (4) UF BETTORS HANOVER is good for a share most times when racing at this level.
Race 7
(3) REAL SURREAL was very good racing locally earlier in the year and he faced some tough ones in New York. He can get back on track here if he behaves. (9) LEVIS DAY was good racing against the top sophomore colt in Canada last week. He should be a contender here. (4) LIFE HAPPENED returns to a 7-day cycle here which could make him more of a threat. (8) DANCIN DOUG can pass some of these late and hit the Super at a price.
Race 8
(9) IMSPORTY takes a notable class drop here and he can beat these if he gets put into the race early enough. (4) SAGEBRUSH SID shows some fast final quarters and he returns quicker here; using. (5) WINDSUN GOTHAM was part of a wild race that had lots of action last time and he held in there decently. He has a shot here. (2) DUC DORLEANS has seen better days, but he can take a share vs. this group.
Race 9
(6) EASY LOVER HANOVER and (3) ELLIS PARK get to face a few horses stepping up to this level and these two should decide it in the lane. Nod to the former who will likely be more forwardly-placed. (1) AMERICAN VIRGIN has finished third five times in a row. Make it six? (2) JINS SHARK should pass some horses here and hit the ticket.
Race 10
(10) NIRVANA SEELSTER is sure to blast off early and take this field on a speed mission. He should beat these if he can clear quickly. (3) NICKLE BAG is the other big class dropper here and I'll use him in the Pick 4 in case the choice falters. (2) DREAMY FELLA was good last week, losing 2nd right on the wire. He should be coming late again here, and he isn't impossible if there is a late pace meltdown. (5) ROCK THIS WAY is erratic, but he can be right there in this race if he can replicate his last effort. (1) REGAL SON is in a good spot to sit a trip and take a check.
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