Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 6/15 Analysis

Best Bet - PILOT DISCRETION (3RD)

Spot Play - IDEAL JET (7TH)

Race 1 - $100,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 9 - $100,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Pick 5: 2,5,6,7/1,4,5,6/3/2,5,8/2,3,5 = $28.80

Early Pick 4: 2,5,8/2,3,5/3,4/3,6,7 = $54

Middle Pick 4: 2/3,4/2,4,5/4 = $6

Late Pick 4: 4/5/2,4,6,8/1,2,5,6,7 = $20

MEET STATS: 45-145 / $231.70 (-$58.30)

BEST BETS: 8-14 / $20,80 (-$7.20)

SPOT PLAYS: 2-14 / $9.00 (-$19.00)

Race 1 - 5YO and Younger NW3 or $50K LT - $100K GTD Pick 5

(2) SPORTSLINE has been so good in his last two starts that despite facing tougher here he should be up to it. (7) BETTER MOONON OVER doesn't get much respect at the windows but all he does is keep winning. He likely won't be an easy out here, either. (5) CARSONS SHADOW has a lethal late kick and if things shake out right, he may blow by the leaders late in this mile. (6) LETS HAVE ANOTHER is yet another option in a good opening race of a great card of racing.

Race 2 - NORTH AMERICA CUP Consolation - 3YO

(1) AIR FORCE HANOVER just missed the final and he should be able to blast to the front on the backside and control this race. (6) CENTURY FARROH will no doubt be leaving this time and if is allowed a loose lead, he could be very tough to catch. (4) CAVIART ROCKLAND is in with a decent shot but he is likely to get over bet in this spot. It makes sense to price shop in this small but contentious field. (5) BRONX SEELSTER should get put into this race much earlier and he isn't without a chance either.

Race 3 - GOODTIMES FINAL

(3) PILOT DISCRETION was sensational last week and he should keep his unbeaten streak intact here. I am going to seek value underneath. (5) SUPER SCHISSEL should be much better here making his third start back and moving off the dreaded 10-hole. (4) FORBIDDEN TRADE was loaded following a slow pace last week and he can come on late for a share here. (8) SOUTHWIND AVENGER is a strong local hope who can be right in the exotics mix with a good trip.

Race 4 - NW $22,500 L5 or $30K L10 AE: OPT CLM $55K or NW $180K LT $50K GTD Pick 4

(2) AMERICAN HUSTLE showed his mettle last week, passing horses in a 54 2/5 back ½. Now he drops a level and he should be very tough in here. (5) BALLERAT BOOMERANG is no stranger to this track and he ships in with excellent form; using. (8) GO WEST GO FAST exits the same race as the choice and there is no Physicallyinclined to contend with here early. He is the third one that I'll use in multi-race bets. (1) ISITFRIDAYYET should sneak into the Tri or Super if he doesn't get too far back this time.

Race 5 - NW $16,500 L5 or $26K L10 AE: NW $120K LT or OPT CLM $45K

(2) P L JACKSON takes a multi-level class drop and he stands a good chance to pop here. (5) PEDRO HANOVER paced his back 1/2 in 53 3/5 last week and he can be a threat at a price if he can lay closer early. (3) AMERICAN WIGGLE also drops and he almost won in a higher class than this two starts back; using. (7) FREDDY BEAR is worth a look for the exotics as he should be passing horses in the final quarter.

Race 6 - ARMBRO FLIGHT FINAL

This is the great guessing game of the night choosing between two brilliant Ron Burke-trained trotting mares. (4) ATLANTA has been sensational so far at 4 and I will give her the slightest nod over stablemate and Canadian record holder (3) HANNELORE HANOVER, but there is no way around using both in the Pick 4. (6) TOP EXPECTATIONS and (9) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP are worth a look for those that are likely to be left fighting for scraps.

Race 7 - NW $11,500 L5 or $22,000 L10; AE: OPT CLM $30K

(3) IDEAL JET gets Gingras here, so an all-out speed mission is very possible. He may build up a big lead and never be caught. (7) POINTOMYGRANSON comes off a new life's mark and he figures here despite the class jump. (6) MONGOLIAN HERO is starting to click again and he's the third one that I'll use in the cash leg of this Pick 4. (5) BILLS FELLA won here at a big price to open the card on NA Cup night last year. He is a bomb that's worth a look here.

Race 8 - 5YO and Younger NW 5 or $85K LT

(4) UPTOWN FUNK chased a strong leader who was unyielding last time. That was a good effort and he gets the nod here. (2) FAST N FIRST fits well here as he already won at this level three starts back before trying tougher. He is an exacta factor. (1) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY is right there every week but seems better used underneath at this point. (3) NOAHS MILL worked out a great trip to win last week but these are tougher.

Race 9 - MOHAWK COLD CUP - INVITATIONAL - $100K GTD Pick 4

There's no indication that (2) MCWICKED has any signs of slowing down at the age of 8, so he gets top billing here. (3) JIMMY FREIGHT comes to play every week and he should be right there again. (4) THE WALL was in an impossible spot trying to close wide into a 54-flat back 1/2 at Northfield. He should go better here and hit the board. (8) THINKBIG DREAMBIG will be passing horses late and he should make his way onto the Super ticket.

Race 10 - FAN HANOVER FINAL

(3) TREACHEROUS REIGN was super-impressive last week and she looked especially strong at the wire. I take her for the minor upset over (4) WARAWEE UBEAUT who has done nothing wrong this season so far and is a deserving favorite here. (1) TALL DRINK HANOVER is another exceptional mare and she has shown that she loves this track. I wouldn't quibble with anyone who bet her to upset the top two. (5) TRILLIONS HANOVER raced well last week but she is up against some major firepower here; small share predicted.

Race 11 - NORTH AMERICA CUP

Great race with several possibilities but it's hard for me to go past a horse that paced a 51 2/5 back 1/2 last week and I expect (2) DE LOS CIELOS DEO to get a more alert start, stay in range, then roll by them late. (4) WORKIN ON A MYSTERY is impossible to leave off Pick 4 tickets coming in off a dominant 1:49-flat elimination win. (5) CAPTAIN VICTORIOUS goes for Gingras/Burke and he may be peaking perfectly for this; price look. (3) BETTORS WISH is unbeaten this year and being as handy as he is, he is expected to be around at the finish. (8) CAPTAIN CRUNCH looks to bounce back after making a mistake in his elimination, but I just don't see value betting him here from an outer post coming off a break in stride.

Race 12 - ROSES ARE RED FINAL

(4) SHARTIN N is the Queen of this castle and she's hard to go past here, but you know she will go off at 1 to 5 or 2 to 5. (2) CAVIART ALLY has been right there behind the choice in two straight and the same extremely chalky exacta is likely here. (1) TEQUILA MONDAY likes Mohawk Park and she can get a good trip and hang around for a share. (11) DOUBLE A MINT gets a much better starting slot here and she's worth a look at a price for the bottom of Tri and Super bets.

Race 13 - FAN HANOVER Consolation

(5) SUNNY DEE had a rough go of it against Warrawee Ubeaut last time, but she looks best in here and Henry will surely want to control the race from start-to-finish. (7) SPORTS FLIX can blast, get position, then hang around for a good share. (3) UNDEFIABLE keeps Tetrick here, which makes her worthy of an exotics look. (2) THATS INCREDIBLE should sit a decent trip here and perhaps complete the Tri or Super.

Race 14 - NW $7,500 L5 or $15K L10; AE NWW1 in 2018-2019

(8) MAJOR HILL paced a strong mile, closing into a 26-flat kicker last week and I can't see him going off anywhere close to his 8/1 morning line quote here; top call. (6) REAL WILLEY drops a few classes here and he should be a big threat. (4) KWIK TALKIN paced a 52 4/5 back half last week so you know he is sharp. He's also dangerous. (2) SHADES OF BAY is a threat at this level but his penchant for drifting towards the grandstand pacing down the lane is always a concern.

Race 15 - NW $5,300 L5 or $11,500 L10; AE: Not Averaging $1K/Start in 2018-2019 (Min. 10 starts)

(1) BIG BANG BOOM exits a fast race and he should get a good trip racing on or near the lead here; top call. (5) OFFICER JONES will be closing as always, but he is often a victim of trip and pace. (2) SINGLE WHITE SOCK races best for McNair and he should be a threat at this level. (6) DARKEST SECRET fits better here but seems better used underneath/ (7) DEVILS PEAK is one who will be coming late that can get into the exotics at a big price.