Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 5/4 Analysis
Best Bet: MAJOR HILL (11th)
Spot Play: DRAGON TIME (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5 - 1,3,4/3,6,7/3,7/1,7/3,5 = $14.40
Early Pick 4 - 1,7/3,5/1,2,5/1,5,8 = $36
Late Pick 4 - 5,7,8/1,4,8/2,5/5 = $18
MEET STATS: 293 - 938 / $1,708.20 (-$165.80)
BEST BETS: 39 - 86 / $129.10 (-$35.80)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 87 / $138.40 (-$35.60)
Race 1
It didn't take long for (4) FAST N FIRST to take a new life's mark and off that effort where he was never in danger, he gets my call to repeat. (1) CENTURY FARROH was excellent at the end of last season and he looks primed for a good effort here. (3) MC PAT could benefit if there is any early battling, which is possible. (5) CAPITANO ITALIANO was no match for the choice last time and he will likely get bet here regardless, so I'll play to beat him.
Race 2
(7) VILLAGE JOULES has missed more than a month, but she enters one of the top barns here and if she is ready, she could drop a couple of seconds moving to the big track. (6) THATS INCREDIBLE was perfectly driven to take down the chalk last week as she had plenty left for the drive. She's a must-use for me here. (3) SWEET YOUNG THING was a Gold winner last year, so there's no question she is capable. The question with her is: Is she tight enough and is the intent there? She looks ready off her qualifying lines. (1) ARRIVAL gets driver Roy here. That makes her worth a look for the exotics.
Race 3
(7) WHISTYS PARADISE gets McNair back here after a one-race absence and she should be much better tonight. (3) AMERICAN SARA could go off at odds-on with the class drop and while I'm not convinced she's a lock, she hard to leave off Pick 5 tickets. (5) MANHATTAN PLAY should be in the flow and passing horses to take a share here. (4) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is another solid closer who is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 4
(1) SINGLE WHITE SOCK gets to drop to the bottom here and he can get brave when he races in this class; top call. (7) WHATASHOWINONTARIO was right in the mix down the lane last time, but a big class-dropper was rolling by them all on the outside. He fits well here and he's dangerous. (6) WEATHERLY is usually in the thick of things when he gets to drop this low. Don't be surprised if he flies off the car at the start. (8) SHADOW MARGEAUX is showing improvement, but a smaller share is probably his ceiling starting from out there.
Race 5
(5) DRAGON TIME has been facing some tough ones in New Jersey and he moves into the top barn here after being bought by owner Grant; top call. (3) MAGNUM J did well to stay in the same zip code as Courtly Choice and Sintra in his qualifier and he could do some damage here racing off the shelf. (1) POINTOMYGRANSON should trip well here and close for a share. (4) ISITFRIDAYYET is capable of better than he showed last week; consider for the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 6
(5) SINTRA was no worse for wear after changing barns and if he can replicate the mile he produced last week, he'll be hard to beat. (1) JIMMY FREIGHT has been remarkably consistent, only missing the board once in 33 starts (when a close 4th in the Meadowlands Pace). He may need one before he shows his best. I look for him to be coming on late for a share. (2) DR J HANOVER was tangling with some tough customers in the Levy series. He could make things interesting here. (4) GO WEST GO FAST is really good right now, but this is a tall task for him; small share predicted.
Race 7
(1) DEVILS PEAK was motoring late last week, but he was just too far out of position. There should be some speed to chase here and he can get a better start leaving from the inside. (5) CROFT BAY N is another who was closing well last time that could get up if the race sets up for him; using. (8) FREDDY BEAR fits much better in this class and he has developed an effective versatile racing style; using. (2) TE KAWAU N is rarely off the board. I'll use him underneath.
Race 8
(5) OFFICER JONES lands in a spot where the race could set up perfectly for him; slight nod. (7) KWIK TALKIN qualified sharply for this season's debut and he should be forwardly placed early. I'll use him in the late Pick 4. (8) IMSPORTY comes off a nice two-move win, and he is one that could come right back with another top effort here despite moving up one class. (4) HEA THRILL N drops and he should be in the mix for at least a share.
Race 9
(8) HIDDEN DELIGHT had a nice tightener for this and notice he was in the exacta 11 times in 26 starts last year. He can beat these if he gets a more aggressive steer this time. (1) PLAY JET RAY was rough and in fact off stride for a few steps coming down the lane last week. He could repeat here, but the gait issue is worrisome. (4) BIT OF LUCK is right there every week and with the effort he has been producing, he should win another soon; using. (3) DRAGON STRIKER is worth a look for the exotics moving into the Boyd barn.
Race 10
(5) AMERICAN VIRGIN was an easy winner two starts back when racing in a similar class and there should be a solid pace to track here; top call. (2) BRODYS SCRAPPER also won big last time he dropped out of the Preferred ranks. It could be these two fighting it out at the wire. (4) EAST END is usually in the thick of things when he races at this level and he should be closing for at least a slice in a race that has lots of early speed lined up on the outside of the gate. (3) REAL WILLEY keeps taking checks almost every week and he should get another slice here.
Race 11
(5) MAJOR HILL drops to a likely spot and he should be tough here racing on or near the lead. (2) CARTOON DADDY is capable of better if he can work out a good trip. (1) HIS BOY ELROY was in a poor flow last time and he's another who can improve here. (3) LEVIS DAY has a good late kick on his best day and this should be an easier class for him; using underneath. (6) HES A SENSATION should go better here racing from the best post; note his 27-flat kicker last time.