Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 4/6 Analysis
Best Bet: EAST END (9th)
Spot Play: DEVILS PEAK (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,7/4,5,7/2,6,7/3,7/3,4,7,8 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7/3,4,7,8/2,4,8/7,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,4,8/7,8/4,6/5,6,7 = $36
MEET STATS: 239 - 783 / $1,393.50 (-$236.10)
BEST BETS: 34 - 72 / $117.00 (-$27.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 72 / $132.10 (-$11.90)
Race 1
This is a very interesting kickoff to the card. (7) LETS HAVE ANOTHER shows only one loss and in that race, he had an impossible trip. I think he'll offer value here in the win pool as the likely second choice to the red-hot (5) TRAGICALLY ZIP, but both should be used in the Pick 5. (6) SPEED TO MARKET is always around the money and he should hit the board here using his good closing kick. (2) CANDID CAMERON was close last time, but these look much tougher and a smaller share could be his ceiling this time.
Race 2
(7) LEGAL BETTOR has been facing tougher lately and he can get back on track here if he keeps the leaders in his sights. (5) ROCKY J SQUIRREL was held in reserve until the last turn then he exploded to win when claimed. I'm not sure if he doesn't regress a bit with the barn and driver change, but he is a contender, nonetheless. (4) NOAHS MILL has been on fire for Waxman, but he now makes his sixth start in 24 days and faces tougher. This could be where the bubble bursts. (3) HAL N SAMMY is always a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 3
(2) ALEXAS JACKPOT was game in defeat racing in the slop and he gets a slight nod here in a contentious dash. (7) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT set strong splits only to be picked off late. He's the one to catch again. (6) DRUNKONAPLANE converted a perfect trip to win, but he keeps McNair and is a threat to repeat if he can work out a similar trip. (8) BETTORS WESTERN will be closing again, but he is better used underneath here.
Race 4
(3) DEVILS PEAK has raced well twice in a row off the claim and he could get overlooked in the wagering again here; slight nod. (7) REGAL SON drops, and he should be sent hard this time which would make him tough vs. these. (4) LONE WOLF TERROR has caught fire for a barn that is hot right now. This is a much tougher class, so I'll use him underneath this time. (2) ACTING OUT comes off a good try chasing a loose leader and he could better this placing with a good trip.
Race 5
(8) P L JACKSON hasn't raced in more than a year, but he is classy enough to beat these if ready and his lone qualifier over a good track was excellent. I'll take a stab with him here. (3) NICKLE BAG fits this class well and he should be right there again. (7) WALTER MITTY was an unlucky loser, picked off in the last stride by the pocket sitter. He's not out of this despite moving up one class. (4) ARSENAL SEELSTER's race two starts back could be good enough to win this if he can replicate it; using.
Race 6
(4) SUNDAY AFTERNOON blew up before the start last week, perhaps affected by the very sloppy track. With a dry track predicted for this week, I'll stick with her. (8) COSETTE moved early and late to win in this class last week and she should contend right back. (2) OUR VACATION is the one to catch but stepping up she likely won't get to cut slow fractions, so I'll try to beat here this time. (3) ONLY ONE STAR is in great form now and you could land on worse outsiders than her tonight.
Race 7
(8) TRACEUR HANOVER is simply too sharp right now to go against, even from the worst post. (7) PHYSICALLYINCLINED gives good battles to the choice every week and he'll topple him one of these weeks; maybe tonight? (6) MAROMA BEACH was used up early last time and he paid the price late. He can close for a good piece of this. (4) BRODYS SCRAPPER can pick up some pieces late and land on the bottom of the Tri or Super.
Race 8
(8) ISITFRIDAYYET seemed to not get a hold of the wet track last week, now he gets to drop to a spot where he should dominate if Filion sends him off the gate; top call. (2) HEZA THRILL N was cleverly-driven to a nice win a class lower and he has upset potential here if he saves his move for the lane again. (6) TE KAWAU N drops out of the same race as the choice and he should be heard from at some point of this mile. (7) RED JOHN returns from a break and he will get overlooked here. Consider using him on the bottom of exotic wagers.
Race 9
(4) EAST END is extremely sharp at the moment and class relief may be all he needs to convert here. (6) RAMNBLINGAMBLINMAN is one of those 'damned if you do/damned if you don't' types who can always chase you down late if you don't use him. I'll include him in the late Pick 4 coming off a sharp win. (5) GO WEST GO FAST drops and he should be in the mix here, but I prefer to use him underneath. (1) TYMAL PEACEMAKER is sharp and he should be along for at least a share. The inside is a good post for him.
Race 10
(5) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ popped and stopped, now he gets to drop. This is a good spot for him, and I'll give him the nod over (7) CARTOON DADDY, who should also enjoy the class relief. (6) SPEEDLING gets Hudon here, who has been popping with longshots all meet long; worth a look. (3) LUKE AND DUKE figures to get a good following trip and he should land somewhere in the High 5. (2) ABOUT A BOY brings good form in from Flamboro where he raced against some good ones; consider for exotics.