Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 4/27 Analysis
Best Bet: LEGAL BETTOR (4th)
Spot Play: ROCKIN IN HEAVEN (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5 - 3,5,9/1,2,6/1,6/2/2,4,5,6 = $14.40
Early Pick 4 - 2/2,4,5,6/1,6,8/2,4,6 = $36
Late Pick 4 - 2,4,5,6/2,4,6/1,3,7/9 = $36
MEET STATS: 280 - 896 / $1,635.60 (-$156.40)
BEST BETS: 37 - 82 / $129.10 (-$34.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 83 / $138.40 (-$27.60)
Race 1
(9) PLAY JET RAY ships north in tremendous form, flashing high speed both early and late in his miles. He gets top call here. (5) BIT OF LUCK was an unlucky loser last time when flying late. He merits a long look here. (3) TALBOTCREEKWHISKY has been in strong form since returning from a break and he is the third one that I'll use in the Pick 4. (6) LEVIS DAY can close for a slice here and he's worth using underneath at a price.
Race 2
(6) IMSPORTY seems to get a good spot to make his return here with lots of speed to track and a projected faltering late pace to chase down; top call. (2) COOL ROCK had a tightener and he gets to drop here. The projected race shape also plays to his strengths; using. (1) HIS BOY ELROY has been coming close and he should pop soon; maybe tonight? (4) OLLIESTRIKESFAME was game in defeat but no match for the winner who was making his first start for Moreau. He can share here.
Race 3
(6) CAPITANO ITALIANO marches on towards stakes season and he can take another here. (1) CANDID CAMERON was sharp in victory here and if he pockets up behind the choice early, he can be a danger late. (7) FAST N FIRST had a good 2019 opener; consider for exotics. (3) MCPAT has shown marked improvement in his last couple of starts and he can pass many of these late; using underneath.
Race 4
(2) LEGAL BETTOR just didn't get involved last week as the chalk but missing a check there allows him to drop to the bottom conditioned level; no excuses vs. these. (6) WHATASHOWINONTARIO had a tightener and I have a feeling he will be sent forward off the gate here; consider using underneath. (3) JOES BID made up a lot of ground late and he should close for a slice. (1) SHADOW MARGEAUX is capable of better and he can hit the ticket leaving from the inside.
Race 5
(4) HEZA THRILL N has been flying late on a regular basis and he should get the setup he needs here. (6) DEVILS PEAK is another closer who figures to benefit from the projected race flow; using. (5) IDEAL JET is always a threat on the engine, but he could face some early opposition this time. I have mixed feeling about his chances. (2) ON THE VIRG may have been a bit rusty last time and he figures to leave quicker here. He has upset possibilities.
Race 6
(6) JAYDENS PLACE simply had to work too hard early on Monday night and he was softened up late. Moreau is undaunted by that result and he brings him back quick again at a higher level, which should help boost the price. I'll stick with him. (1) CROFT BAY N just missed last time and he figures highly here leaving from the inside. (8) HUMBOLDT drops, and he could pop here; using. (4) CARTOON DADDY wore the winded choice down late, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.
Race 7
(6) GO WEST GO FAST may have gone too fast too early last time, but when you look back three starts you see he won in this class in sharp time. He can bounce back here. (4) PHANTOM SEELSTER had a tough trip in his first start back. He is capable with some racing luck. (2) ISITFRIDAYYET dodges the hottest horse on the grounds here, so I'll use him in the Pick 4s. (5) TYMAL PEACEMAKER is always right there at this level and he should grab at least a slice.
Race 8
(4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED has been outstanding his last two starts and I'm going to try to beat the returning (6) SINTRA with him here. The latter comes in with a barn change but he's obviously capable and is the one to beat. (2) MAROMA BEACH has been right behind the choice the last two starts and he should be right there again. (3) EAST END is in solid form and he can come on late to grab a small slice.
Race 9
(3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN had a useful comeback race and now he drops and moves inside, so he should get aggressive early here; top call. (7) OH K MAN had two starts out of his new barn at Flamboro. Now he returns to the big track and he could get a setup here; using. (1) MAJOR HILL drops and gets the inside and he projects to get a nice trip near the front; using. (9) OFFICER JONES is capable in this spot, but he will probably need to pass them all which seems unlikely; using underneath.
Race 10
(9) WESTSLUCKY TERROR shows nothing but wins on his card and while this is a tougher spot, his price should be better here, and he is capable of taking another. (10) FANCOURT draws worst but he takes a big drop and he should be right there with any kind of a trip. (5) PEDRO HANOVER had a nice return win and it wouldn't be a big shock if he came right back to repeat considering his inherent class. (6) P L JACKSON has come back very sharp and he should be right there again. (8) POINTOMYGRANSON should be passing horses late and he can get involved.