Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 4/13 Analysis
Best Bet: TRACEUR HANOVER (9th)
Spot Play: CROFT BAY (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 3/1,2,5,6/3,5/1,4,7/2,3,4,6 = $19.20
Early Pick 4 - 1,4,7/2,3,4,6/2,3/2,6 = $48
Late Pick 4: 2,5,6/3,6,7/7/2,6,10 = $27
MEET STATS: 253 - 814 / $1,487.40 (-$140.60)
BEST BETS: 34 - 75 / $117.00 (-$33.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 75 / $132.10 (-$17.90)
Race 1
(3) LETS HAVE ANOTHER appears to catch a field he should be able to handle, and I am expecting an aggressive steer in this spot; top call and Pick 4 single. (6) CANDID CAMERON exits the same race as the choice and he will likely sit a good trip near the front this time; exacta factor. (4) AREUKIDIN ME CABBIE finished just behind the choice last time, but he had a much better trip. He's in the exotics mix here. (1) HAL N SAMMY should sit a good following trip and he can emerge late to take a small share.
Race 2
(6) CROFT BAY N takes a class drop here but his recent form may lead to him still going off at a square price. I'll give him the nod over (2) ARSENAL SEELSTER, who was flying late last time, but may get over bet off that mile where he saved his move for the very end. (1) OFFICER JONES draws well for a change and he should be a threat from mid-pack this time. (5) HIS BOY ELROY drops and he is another that could do in a race that could easily come down to trip.
Race 3
(5) OUTLAW FIREBALL gets away from the streaking Double A Mint here and she should convert in this spot. (3) JUST HER LUCK has been racing well for a few weeks now and she finished just behind the choice twice straight in the top class recently. I'll use her in the multi-race bets. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES is capable when right, but the recent vet scratch gives pause for concern; your call. (1) P L HURRICANE is racing well and she should be able to work out a good trip here to take a share.
Race 4
(7) AMERICAN VIRGIN is sure to be sent by McNair in this spot and he should be the one to beat at this level. (1) WESTSLUCKY TERROR is on a roll and he might get a great trip here; using. (4) ISITFRIDAYYET steps back up after winning a race in which he figured best. He's got a shot here if he can get a decent trip. (3) CLASSIC PRO is hot, but he meets tougher here and he isn't likely to get the same trip up front.
Race 5
(4) LUKE AND DUKE was sharp in defeat last week and a similar effort can get the job done in this spot. (3) OUTLAW TURN AND BURN was closing well late and he could upset here if he gets out into the flow this time. (2) SPEEDLING got hung the mile last time and now he gets a better post which should make him a player here. (6) OSBORNE SEELSTER is worth a look off some decent qualifiers and he could get a good trip up front here.
Race 6
(2) ON THE VIRG - a recent online purchase - lands in a good spot for his Mohawk Park debut and he could wire these. (3) POINTTOMYGRANSON drops and he should get put into this race early by Waples; using. (1) DEVILS PEAK exits a quick dash where he couldn't bridge the gap late. He should be along for at least a share. (9) CINNABAR DRAGON would get a higher rating if he drew better, but if he blasts early, he can be dangerous.
Race 7
(2) TE KAWAU N was great in defeat last week, he just couldn't repel a very sharp winner. He steps up a level but he's viable in this spot. (6) P L JACKSON was ready for a top effort and now he draws better, and he could be even sharper; using. (5) DRUNKONAPLANE is sharp and dangerous. He goes for a barn that has been very hot recently; using. (9) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN figures to close late for a small share this time.
Race 8
(3) TALBOTCREEKWHISKY was live, did a lot of the heavy work and was unlucky to lose right on the line. He gets the nod here. (6) ROCKY J SQUIRREL was decent off the claim last time. He could do here if he gets better position early. (7) BETWEEN THE SHEETS picked off the choice late after sitting a perfect trip. He could repeat if he can manage to work out a similar trip. (5) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP seems to race better as a closer and he will be passing horses late here, but a smaller share could be his ceiling against these.
Race 9
(7) TRACEUR HANOVER is quite simply the sharpest horse on the grounds right now and he'll take beating again here. (6) MAROMA BEACH upped his game last week with McClure in the bike and that teamster gets a return drive here; exacta factor. (5) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is always in the mix it seems, and he should get a good trip near the front here; using underneath. (1) THOR DE VIE was very good last time, but this is a much tougher assignment and a smaller share is likely for him.
Race 10
(6) TORRIN HANOVER's last effort was almost too bad to be true. Perhaps the heavy slop played a role. He gets to drop here and he will be tough if he gets put into this race. (2) ACTING OUT raced tough at this level two starts back and he should be a player here. (10) IDEAL JET won at this level two starts back and if he makes front before the quarter, he'll be dangerous. (7) HOMEY JOE should be closing for a piece of this. (8) VELOCITY DRIVEN is another who figures to be passing horses in the final quarter to take a slice.