Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 3/9 Analysis
Best Bet: OH K MAN (3rd)
Spot Play: KEEP COMING (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,8/4,5,6/5/2,5,6,7/2,3 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,6,7/2,3/1,2,3/5,6 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 5,6/2,6,7/3,4,5/3,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 189 - 632 / $1,043.80 (-$230.20)
BEST BETS: 26 - 57 / $91.30 (-$22.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 15 - 57 / $114.20 (+$0.20)
Race 1
(3) PRINT MEDIA has raced well for teamster Roy in every start and I'll give him a slight nod in a tricky opener. (4) DREAMFAIR B J drops again after stopping abruptly last time but if he was ever going to wake up, this would be the spot for it. (8) WEATHERLY has been finishing fast. He's dangerous with the right trip. (7) MERCENARY almost pulled off a huge upset last week. He's worth a look for the exotics here.
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Race 2
(4) FREDDY BEAR wasn't disgraced racing against better and he should be tough here. (5) CANADIAN PHAROH lost by the slimmest of margins despite shipping and missing close to three weeks. He's a must-use for me here. (6) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN's 26 2/5 kicker sticks out, but he gapped cover around the final turn so I'm not sure I'd take too short a price here. (2) HUMBOLDT will take action again dropping down, but he was dull last week as the chalk and I'll try to beat him again here.
Race 3
(5) OH K MAN was up against it last week chasing a loose leader who controlled the race from start to finish. He should get a much better setup here. (9) AVALANCHE HANOVER gets tagged following a sharp win in the bottom conditioned level and he seems to fit well here. He can share despite this post. (4) MY TEEN IDOL steps back up off a win, but if he can find the same sharp late speed here, he can contend at a price. (6) RACEMUP comes in with some decent form, but other early speed should compromise him; small share predicted.
Race 4
(2) BUTTERMILK HANOVER couldn't quite reach last week, but she remains a viable top contender in this class and the one to beat here. (5) THIS DRAGON ROCKS paced faster then her lifetime best win mark last week while flying late. She is sharp and dangerous. (6) AINT THREE OK failed three times straight at odds-on at Flamboro but that will only help her price here and Henry has popped with her at big odds before; using. (7) WATCH MY LUCK had a rough trip last time and still wasn't far off. Consider her for the exotics at a price here.
Race 5
(2) PHYSICALLYINCLINED need only repeat his excellent effort vs. Sintra last week and he'll be tough to beat here. (3) ISITFRFRIDAYYET will likely get activated by Roy much sooner here and note that he beat the choice two starts back. (8) BRODYS SCRAPPER has been live for weeks and he could be a much bigger price this week from this post; using. (6) TRACEUR HANOVER drops but this is no easy spot; small share predicted.
Race 6
(2) ADVERSITY should get a better start here which puts him in the mix to score another win. (3) CLOUD NINE HANOVER is in great form and while his price will drop here, he's also in with a solid chance vs. these. (1) ITS HUW YOU KNOW should get a good spot early here which gives him a chance at an upset. (9) CAULFIELD would be rated higher if he drew better, but he should be heard from early at least.
Race 7
(6) KEEP COMING raced his eyeballs out last week and was an unlucky loser on the wire. A slightly easier trip would make him very hard to beat here. (5) VELOCITY DRIVEN seems to be cycling around to another win and he fits this class well; using. (4) JOES BID took a shuffle last week and finished with pace; consider for exotics. (2) MCKINNEY dropped, popped and stopped. He may look to trip out up near the front here which would make him dangerous.
Race 8
(2) SHADES OF BAY finished powerfully while heading for the far rail as he always does in the lane. Sometimes that drifting doesn't stop him from winning and this may be one of those spots. (6) CINNABAR DRAGON beat up on weaker twice, but he is so sharp that I'll use him here. (7) SENIOR K is in excellent from currently and he could provide some value to the exotics here. (8) OFFICER JONES can finish with a flourish on his best day and he's worth a look for use underneath here.
Race 9
(4) MAROMA BEACH got a week off following an unsuccessful first up try vs. the streaking Sintra. This is a much easier assignment and he should bounce back. (3) GO WEST GO FAST was a sharp winner in a similar class two starts back and he should provide a challenge to the choice here. (5) MONGOLIAN HERO N was live last week, and he provided cover for the favored winner. He can contend here in his current sharp form. (7) TORRIN HANOVER hasn't missed the board this year. He's hard to leave out of the exotics.
Race 10
(6) COUSIN MARY was flying late last week, and she gets a better post here. Harris should put her into play earlier; top call. (3) JUST HER LUCK equaled her lifetime mark last time while facing better. She's on my Late Pick 4 ticket. (7) DOCS SAUSALITO is capable of better and she gets Macdonald back here. He drove her to her last two wins. (8) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE steps up off a win but vs. these she's best used underneath. (2) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is almost always passing horses in the stretch and is a good one to use in all slots underneath.